记者丨 柳宁馨 编辑丨周上祺 3月5日，国务院新闻办公室举行吹风会，解读《政府工作报告》。 《政府工作报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹阳在回答记者提问时表示， 今年的 经济增长目标实际上是两句话，即"经济增长4.5%—5%、在实际工作中努力争取更好结果"。 这个"两句话的目标"综合考虑了国内经济运行和外部环境变化，兼顾了需要与可能，是一 个"既跳起来摸高、又稳得住步伐"的积极务实的目标。 "这个目标是个区间目标，既为应对各种不确定因素留有空间，也有利于各地因地制宜制定本 地区增长目标，有利于引导各方面把精力聚焦到高质量发展上来。 今年中国经济发展的外部 环境更趋复杂多变，经济运行中不确定难预料因素很可能比预料的多，提出这样的区间目标也 是为了应对这些不确定性留有余地。"沈丹阳表示。 沈丹阳表示，一方面，这个目标既充分考虑今年要为调结构、防风险、促改革留出空间，又与 2035年愿景目标总体衔接，体现了"十五五"时期夯实基础、全面发力的要求。党的十九届五中 全会明确提出，到2035年我国人均国内生产总值要达到发达国家平均水平。 另一方面，这个目标与我国增长潜力是匹配的，国内外有很多经济组织、经济专家、智库 ...

5% 增速为区间上线 。 今年政府工作报告将经济增长目标设在 4.5%-5% ，采用区间目标既守住基本增速，也符合"树立正确政绩观"的要求，"在实际工作中努力争 取更好结果"。历史来看， 2016 年、 2019 年也设定了区间经济增长目标， 一方面， 更灵活的区间能够为深化结构性改革、培育新质生产力、化解地方债务风险等 中长期任务预留更充裕的政策空间， 另一方面， 也体现了"做优增量"、"提质增效"的政策导向。 报 告 正 文 推动 CPI 向温和通胀靠拢。 2026 年全国 CPI 目标仍设定为 2% ， 2025 年之前，全国政府工作报告将 CPI 目标设定在 3% 左右，主要为控制 CPI 的涨幅。 2025 年 以来， 一是 随着供需矛盾凸显，物价目标下移至 2% ， 二是 CPI 增速不再仅仅是一个预期性的数字，而是宏观政策尤其是货币政策的重要考量。 2026 年 CPI 目标 持平去年，旨在推动"物价合理回升"，以缓解低通胀压力，改善企业盈利和居民收入预期。 就业指标保持稳定。 2026 年城镇新增就业人数继续保持在 1200 万人以上的目标不变（ 2021-2022 年为 1100 万人、 2 ...

宏 观 研 究 内需主导，民生为先 ——《政府工作报告》解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 5%增速为区间上线。今年政府工作报告将经济增长目标设在 4.5%-5%，采用区间目标既守住基本增速，也符合"树立正确政绩观"的 要求，"在实际工作中努力争取更好结果"。历史来看，2016 年、2019 年也 设定了区间经济增长目标，一方面，更灵活的区间能够为深化结构性改革、 培育新质生产力、化解地方债务风险等中长期任务预留更充裕的政策空间， 另一方面，也体现了"做优增量"、"提质增效"的政策导向。 评 推动 CPI 向温和通胀靠拢。2026 年全国 CPI 目标仍设定为 2%，2025 年之前，全国政府工作报告将 CPI 目标设定在 3%左右，主要为控制 CPI 的涨幅。2025 年以来，一是随着供需矛盾凸显，物价目标下移至 2%，二 是 CPI 增速不再仅仅是一个预期性的数字，而是宏观政策尤其是货币政策 的重要考量。2026 年 CPI 目标持平去年，旨在推动"物价合理回升"，以 缓解低通胀压力，改善企业盈利和居民收入预期。 财政政策力度稳中有进。政府工作报告表示要"实施更加积极的财政 政策"，具体工具上：首先，赤字率拟继 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 两会前瞻与美伊冲突如何影响债市 ——债券月度策略思考 一、两会前瞻：目标或维持"5%"，政策力度预计持稳 1、地方两会 GDP、社零、固投增速目标多有下调，开局之年更强调优化结构 与高质量，总体目标更加务实。预计 2026 年经济目标或继续设定在 5%左右。 2、政策力度上，考虑地方目标设定较温和，宏观政策力度或持稳，边际变化 将小于 2025 年。财政赤字维持 4%，政府债供给增量或较 2025 年减少，货币 或延续前期表述，宽松仍有空间但短期落地概率偏小。 3、两会后债市季节性如何？1）资金方面，两会前资金条件总体平稳，两会后 有所分化，除 2019、2020 年外，其他年份多有下行。2）债市方面，两会前债 市交投谨慎，收益率以小幅下行居多。两会后市场关注全年经济目标、政策取 向，收益率下行概率更高。 二、基本面：旺季开启，"小阳春"可期 3 月基本面的看点增多：（1）房地产"金三"传统旺季开启，尤其是上海"沪 七条"落地或提振"小阳春"，参考 2025 年 8 月"沪六条"新政效果，预计 今年"金三"行情可期，但持续性仍有待验证。（2）经济数据"开门红 ...

资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 随着省级两会陆续闭幕，31个省份2026年经济增长目标悉数亮相，超七成省份不低于"5%左右"。整体 来看，各地目标设定更加理性务实，工作重点突出"向新向优"，体现出在稳中求进中聚焦高质量发展、 积极"跳起摸高"的思路。 具体来看，西藏增速目标最高，设定为"7%以上"，2023年以来西藏已连续3年增速领跑全国，2025年同 比增长7%。海南目标为"6%左右"，明显高于其2025年4%的实际增速。新疆目标为"5.5%—6%"，湖 北、四川、甘肃均为"5.5%左右"，安徽、浙江、江西为"5%—5.5%"。重庆、山东、河北为"5%以上"， 江苏为"5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth targets set during the local two sessions for 2026 indicate a slight downward adjustment, with a weighted target growth rate of 5.03%, down from 5.27% last year, but still above 5% [2] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at a weighted average of 5.03%, slightly lower than the previous year's 5.27%. Out of the provinces, 12 maintained their targets, 18 lowered them, and only Jiangxi increased its target slightly. Major provinces like Beijing and Shanghai kept their targets at 5%, while Guangdong and Zhejiang shifted to a range target with a slight decrease [2] - The possibility exists for the national GDP target to be adjusted from 5% to a range of 4.5-5% due to the adjustments made by 7 provinces [2] Inflation and Employment Goals - Inflation and employment targets remain stable, with the national CPI target expected to stay at 2% and the urban unemployment rate maintained in the 5-5.5% range. The focus remains on stabilizing prices and employment [3] Investment and Consumption Goals - The average target growth rate for retail sales is set at 4.71%, down by 0.6 percentage points from last year, with 15 out of 21 provinces lowering their targets. The emphasis has shifted from short-term stimulus to upgrading consumption structure and boosting service consumption [3] - For fixed asset investment, 15 provinces set quantitative growth targets, with 13 provinces lowering their targets, resulting in a weighted average growth rate decrease from 5.9% to 4.9%. The focus is now on improving investment quality and efficiency, particularly in technology and public welfare investments [3] Real Estate Market - Several provinces mentioned efforts to stabilize the real estate market, including encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing and promoting urban renewal. However, the specifics on urban renewal initiatives were limited [3]

Economic Growth Targets - The weighted GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.0%, down from 5.3% in 2025[21] - A total of 18 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets for 2026, accounting for approximately 60% of the total[23] - The average reduction in economic targets among the provinces that lowered their goals is 0.5%[23] Investment and Consumption Targets - The weighted investment target for 14 comparable regions is approximately 4.4%, down from 6.4% the previous year[21] - The weighted consumption target for 16 comparable regions is around 4.7%, lower than last year's target of 5.4%[21] CPI and Budget Revenue - The CPI target for most regions remains around 2%, consistent with the national target[21] - The overall target for general public budget revenue has been lowered, with 6 out of 21 regions adjusting their targets downward[21]

Group 1 - The first key time point is early March during the National People's Congress (NPC), where the annual economic growth target and major policy resource allocations will be clarified, particularly focusing on fiscal funding directions [2] - The second key time point is in mid to late March, when local investment conditions will start to become clear, coinciding with the traditional peak construction season, allowing for assessment of overall investment density and strength through key physical workload indicators [2] - The third key time point is the second quarter, which serves as an important window for observing consumer activity, as specific policy frameworks and benefits will be released following the NPC's direction to enhance consumption rates [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed significant gains, with rebar futures trading at 3471.00 yuan, up 0.26% [1] - As of late January 2026, social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities reached 7.17 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 1.1% month-on-month, but a decrease of 40,000 tons or 0.6% year-to-date, and down 170,000 tons or 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes expanding rural consumption through various measures, including support for new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials [2] Group 2 - Economic growth targets for local governments are set around 5%, with the steel market absorbing external market fluctuations and showing a slowdown in trading activity due to the upcoming Spring Festival [3] - Inventory levels for major steel products have increased, but there is a divergence among product types, with hot-rolled coils continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - Iron ore and coking coal prices remain relatively strong, and future market conditions will depend on macroeconomic sentiment [3]

Economic Goals - The main expected economic growth target for the city is a GDP increase of around 5% [2] - Local general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 2% [2] - The proportion of total R&D expenditure relative to GDP is expected to reach approximately 4.6% [2] - The urban unemployment rate is targeted to remain within 5% [2] - Per capita disposable income for residents is expected to grow in line with economic growth [2] - The consumer price index is anticipated to rise by around 2% [2] Major Investments - A total investment of 255 billion yuan is planned for major engineering projects this year [2] - Construction will begin on the northern extension of the Jia-Min Line and accelerate the development of several other metro lines [2] - Key projects include the construction of the North-South Passage and the advancement of the second phase of the Hushang Railway and the Shanghai section of the Huchuoyong High-speed Railway [2]