（原标题：智利2025年11月经济活动指数低于市场预期） 智利《三点钟报》1月2日报道，智利2025年11月的月度经济活动指数（Imacec）同比仅 增长1.2%，低于市场预期，主要受矿业（尤其是铜开采）和电力生产下滑拖累。虽然 商业和服务业保持增长，但整体经济活力不足，导致2025年前11个月累计增长2.3%。 这使得智利财政部设定的全年2.5%增长目标面临挑战，若要达成目标，12月经济需大 幅增长3.8%，实现难度较高。 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]

对 2026 经济政策的理性预期 20251207 摘要 预计 2026 年中国经济增长目标或设定在 4.8%-4.9%之间，财政赤字率 维持在 4%，广义赤字率小幅下降，旨在控制债务风险，相关信息将在 经济工作会议上发布，为市场提供理性预期。 2026 年基建投资预计回升，受益于专项债下行速度减缓、特别国债稳 定、"十五规划"新项目及北方防汛减灾项目等，将推动基建投资增速。 房地产市场对经济的拖累逐渐减少，销售增速企稳，投资占 GDP 比重接 近发达国家下限，预计一到两年内触底趋稳，政策重点在于去库存和优 化供给，地方政府承担主要责任。 固定资产投资方面，2025 年增速为负，但随着房地产销售和价格企稳， 2026 年地产投资增速有望转正，从而带动固定资产投资整体改善。 消费领域面临国补资金不足和部分商品饱和挑战，但无补贴商品增速已 超过有补贴商品，未来汽车家电补贴可能减少，耐用品或受关注，服务 消费补贴全国推广尚需时日。 2026 年财政支出预计增加，货币政策延续适度宽松，一季度降息降准 概率较大，消费方面以旧换新政策持续，一季度经济增长预期良好。 美国货币宽松预期强烈，新兴市场需求稳定，预计 2026 ...

分行业看，得益于全球新能源产业快速发展，以及国内高技术制造业持续保持扩张，有色金属价格指数继续走高，环比上涨1.4%。 央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会12月5日公布11月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，连续7个月实现环比上升，且 好于2024年同期水平。 11月份，中国大宗商品价格指数为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨1.6%。 在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格环比上涨的大宗商品有25种。其中，碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸涨幅居 前，较上月分别上涨15%、7.2%和7.1%。 随着冬季取暖需求季节性增长及部分农产品供应偏紧等影响，能源价格指数和农产品价格指数止跌反弹，环比分别上涨1.2%和 0.9%。 总体来看，大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，保持稳中向好态势。这表明，在国家各项稳经济措施的协同发力下，国内经济的内生 动力和韧性正稳步增强，新旧动能转换进一步加快，为实现全年经济增长目标提供了有力支撑。 ...

前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。从10— 11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险等政策陆续推出，2025 年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍预计经济增 长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期的重大项目，推动房 地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 由于2025年经济呈现"前高后低"的态势，要想扭转四季度经济下行态势，推动实现2026年良好开局，需 要实施更加积极的宏观政策。 2025年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来，5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来增量资金，同时还能一定程度补 充地方财力，这 ...

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。从10-11 月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险等政策陆续推出，2025年 全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍预计经济增 长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期的重大项目，推动房 地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 2025年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来，5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来增量资金，同时还能一定程度补 充地方财力，这些稳增长政策工具效应在逐步释放。 11月30日，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光在"中国人民 ...

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%。从10-11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险 等政策陆续推出，2025年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍 预计经济增长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期 的重大项目，推动房地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 2 0 2 5年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来， 5000亿元新型政策性金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来 增量资金，同时还能一定程度补充地方财力，这些稳增长政策工具效应在逐步释放。 11月30日，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光在"中 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][2][4] - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [2][5] - The economy is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with CPI and PPI showing declines, indicating low inflationary pressures [3][4] Investment and Policy Measures - The government has introduced several policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [2][5] - There is an expectation for increased macroeconomic policy efforts in 2026, particularly in infrastructure and consumption sectors, to support economic recovery [6][8] Sector Performance - Exports have shown resilience, with a 5.3% increase in the first ten months of 2025, despite external pressures [4][10] - The real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with ongoing challenges in consumer sentiment and investment [4][9] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to be around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend as new opportunities arise [7][10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 4.5%, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated slowdown in various macroeconomic indicators for October, influenced by factors such as the elevated base from 2024 and increased external uncertainties. Economists maintain a stable outlook for China's economy, projecting a 5% growth target for the year, with a focus on domestic demand recovery [2][12]. Industrial Growth - The average forecast for October's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][6]. - Despite the expected slowdown, some sectors like steel and chemicals show resilience, with steel production rates increasing significantly [5][6]. Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for October's retail sales is 2.7%, a decrease from 3% in the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index has risen to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [8][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost consumption in specific categories, contributing to a high base effect for October [8]. Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. New energy vehicles also saw significant growth [9]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for September's fixed asset investment growth is -0.8%, indicating a further decline. However, infrastructure investment may see a narrowing of its decline due to new policy measures [10][11]. - The real estate sector continues to struggle, with significant declines in property transactions and land sales [10][11]. Economic Policy and Outlook - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, with significant financial tools deployed to support key investment projects. Local governments are also issuing consumption vouchers to stimulate demand [14][15]. - The overall economic growth target of around 5% for the year is deemed achievable, supported by improved trade conditions and a focus on domestic demand [12][13].

Economic Overview - The external environment remains complex and variable, with a focus on domestic demand recovery for the economy [1] - The Chief Economist Confidence Index from First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1] Industrial Growth - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in October is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [2] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - High-frequency data shows a strong production trend in the steel sector, with the average blast furnace operating rate at 84.38%, up 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [4] - The automotive industry sees record production and sales figures, with October production reaching 3.359 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of potential recovery due to new policy financial tools [6][7] - Real estate investment continues to face challenges, with significant declines in property transactions in major cities [6][7] Policy and Economic Goals - The government aims to achieve the annual economic growth target despite external challenges, with a focus on effective policy implementation [8] - Recent policies include the issuance of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support key investment projects [9] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to stimulate consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10]