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流动性和机构行为周度观察:买断式逆回购提前公告,资金面平稳宽松-20250608
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-08 12:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From June 2 - 6, 2025, after the cross - month period, the central bank conducted a net reverse repurchase fund withdrawal, but announced a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of the month, showing the central bank's care for liquidity. The money market was relatively loose, and DR001 fluctuated around the policy rate. - From June 2 - 8, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 9 - 15, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be - 3.49 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 120.36 billion yuan. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Money Market - The central bank announced a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of the month to support liquidity. From June 2 - 6, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 93.09 billion yuan and withdrawal was 160.26 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 67.17 billion yuan. The reverse repurchases in the open market will mature 93.09 billion yuan from June 9 - 13, 2025. The central bank announced a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 6, 2025, with a term of 3 months. In June, 50 billion yuan of 3 - month and 70 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases will mature. - This is the first time the outright reverse repurchase tool has issued a tender announcement before operation. It is part of the central bank's effort to improve policy transparency, provides liquidity support for banks with large NCD maturity in June, and stabilizes market expectations. After the operation on June 6, the net withdrawal in June is 20 billion yuan, and there may be further operations. - The money market is loose, and interest rates are stable. From June 3 - 6, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.41% and 1.46% respectively, down 4.1 and 4.9 basis points compared with May 26 - 30, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.55% and 1.57% respectively, down 8.8 and 13.1 basis points compared with May 26 - 30, 2025. [6][7] 2. Government Bonds - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From June 2 - 8, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 7.54 billion yuan, a decrease of about 47.69 billion yuan compared with May 26 - June 1, 2025. Among them, the net payment of national bonds was about 2.7 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 4.84 billion yuan. From June 9 - 15, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be - 3.49 billion yuan, with national bonds at about 0.02 billion yuan and local government bonds at about - 3.51 billion yuan. [8] 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Most of the maturity yields of NCDs declined. As of June 6, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6299% and 1.6550% respectively, up 8 basis points and down 1 basis point compared with May 30, 2025. The 1 - year NCD yield was 1.6775%, down 3 basis points compared with May 30, 2025. - The maturity scale of NCDs in June is large, and the peak will occur next week. From June 2 - 8, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 8.04 billion yuan, compared with 1.68 billion yuan from May 26 - June 1, 2025. The maturity repayment of NCDs from June 9 - 15, 2025, is expected to be 120.36 billion yuan, higher than 66.66 billion yuan this week. The decline in the yields of 3 - month to 1 - year NCDs this week is due to the central bank's liquidity support. Next week, the large maturity volume may resist the decline of NCD interest rates. [9] 4. Institutional Behavior - The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 3 - 6, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.68%, compared with 107.47% from May 26 - 30, 2025. On June 6 and May 30, 2025, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.70% and 107.29% respectively. [10]