Group 1: Market Overview - The recent bond market pressure stems from "anti-involution" expectations, indicating a rapid short-term interpretation of mid-term logic [2][11] - The commodity futures price increase has impacted the bond market primarily on an expectation and sentiment level, suggesting a potential transition from heating to cooling [2][11] - The central bank's liquidity support is expected to be a focal point for the market in August and September, especially during the peak issuance period for government and local bonds [2][11] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - Long-term interest rate bonds may have rebound potential, while credit bonds are approaching a profit-taking window, suggesting a reduction in duration [2][11] - The 10-year government bond is projected to trade within a range of 1.65%-1.80% in the next 1-2 months, with a decreasing probability of breaking below previous lows [2][11] - The bond market's true pressure may not manifest until the third quarter, as high government bond supply is anticipated, with the central bank likely to restart bond purchases if market adjustments worsen [2][11] Group 3: Insurance Industry Insights - The predetermined interest rate for life insurance products is set to decrease, with the current research value at 1.99%, triggering a need for product adjustments by September 1 [3][4][12] - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates aligns with expectations, with the maximum rates for ordinary, participating, and universal life insurance products being set at 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% respectively [4][12] - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to optimize liability costs and enhance the attractiveness of participating insurance products, which may positively influence valuations [3][4][12] Group 4: Engineering Machinery Sector - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly benefit the engineering machinery sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [16][18] - The project is anticipated to increase demand for high-end engineering machinery due to the challenging construction conditions at high altitudes [16][18] - Key beneficiaries in the engineering machinery sector include major manufacturers such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [16][18] Group 5: Railway Investment Trends - Railway fixed asset investment in the first half of the year reached 355.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [17][20] - The high growth in railway investment is expected to continue, with significant new projects and upgrades planned for the second half of the year [17][20] - Major railway equipment companies have reported strong performance, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [17][20]

Group 1 - Recent pressure on the bond market stems from "anti-involution" expectations, essentially a rapid interpretation of medium-term logic in the short term. The recent rise in commodity futures prices has impacted the bond market more on an expectation and sentiment level, with prices likely to experience a cooling process after heating up [6][17][21] - The "anti-involution" expectation has intensified since early June, particularly in the past two weeks, with significant increases in commodity futures such as lithium carbonate, coking coal, and polysilicon, driven more by expectations and sentiment rather than fundamentals [6][17][21] - The bond market's pressure is concentrated in the short term due to crowded trading structures, with expectations leading fundamentals. The fourth quarter may be a critical verification point for the "anti-involution" effect [6][17][21] Group 2 - After the recent pulse adjustment in the bond market, the central bank's support for liquidity is expected to be a focal point for August and September. The current monetary policy framework is characterized by structural liquidity shortages, and the central bank is likely to continue providing liquidity support during the peak issuance period of government and local bonds [21][27][33] - The central bank has shown a protective attitude towards liquidity, with significant operations such as a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase on June 6 and a 1.4 trillion yuan operation before the tax period in July [21][27][33] Group 3 - In terms of market positioning, long-term interest rate bonds (represented by 10-year government bonds) may have rebound opportunities, but the probability of breaking below previous lows is decreasing. The expected trading range for the 10-year government bond in the next 1-2 months is projected to be between 1.65% and 1.80% [32][33] - For credit bonds, caution is advised regarding the valuation adjustment risks of previously overheated credit bond ETFs, as well as the potential for redemption pressures and their transmission to the market. It is recommended to moderately reduce duration in the short term [32][33] - The ranking of bond market value for Q3 2025 is: convertible bonds > certificates of deposit > long-term interest rate bonds > credit bonds. The real pressure on the bond market may not occur in Q3, as August and September are expected to be peak periods for government bond supply [33]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by around 1 basis point in the afternoon [1][2] - The central bank's net MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) injection reached 118 billion yuan in June, indicating a continued effort to stabilize market expectations and support credit issuance [1][5] Bond Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.22% to 120.670, while the 10-year futures decreased by 0.04% to 108.995 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 1.25 basis points to 1.862%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.7235% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield falling by 3.6 basis points to 3.819% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.6 basis points [3] - European bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year UK bond yield dropping by 4.6 basis points to 4.490% [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with yields of 1.4076%, 1.6739%, and 1.7537% for 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year bonds respectively, indicating strong demand [4] Liquidity Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan for June [5] - Short-term Shibor rates rose across the board, with the overnight rate increasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.371% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the acceleration of government bond issuance in Q3 may increase liquidity support needs from financial institutions, suggesting potential for further monetary easing measures [7] - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that current consumption is driven by policy but faces challenges from low endogenous momentum, indicating a need for more demand-side policies to stimulate consumption [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank may adopt measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support to the market, especially considering the potential acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Citic Securities' chief economist Mingming indicates that financial institutions, particularly banks, have a certain demand for liquidity support [1] - The supportive monetary policy stance suggests that the central bank could utilize tools like open market operations or relending in addition to reserve requirement ratio cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has provided liquidity of 20 million Hong Kong dollars to banks through the discount window [1] Group 1 - The liquidity support aims to enhance the stability of the banking system in Hong Kong [1] - The provision of liquidity is a response to potential market fluctuations and aims to ensure that banks have sufficient funds to meet their obligations [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 买断式逆回购提前公告，资金面平稳宽松 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月 2 日-6 月 6 日，跨月后央行逆回购净回笼资金，但月初公告操作 10000 亿元买断 式逆回购，体现央行对流动性的呵护态度；资金面较为宽松，DR001 在政策利率附近运行。 2025 年 6 月 2 日-6 月 8 日，政府债净缴款规模下降，同业存单到期收益率多数下降，银行间 债券市场杠杆率有所提升。2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 15 日政府债预计净缴款-349 亿元，同业存 单到期规模约为 12036 亿元。 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 和过往在月末披露当月操作总量不同，6 月是买断式逆回购工具创设以来首次在操作前发布招 标公告。首先，结合 6 月 5 日央行在官网货币政策工具栏目中新设"中央银行各项工具操作情 况"板块 ...

加拿大央行：近期主要关注的风险是市场出现无序抛售的可能性；在极端危机情况下，相关当局可能不 得不提供流动性支持。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China is implementing a comprehensive financial policy package to stabilize the market and expectations amid global economic uncertainties [1][2] - The financial policy package includes measures such as appropriate reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2][3] Group 2 - In terms of supporting consumption, the PBOC will reduce the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and leasing companies to 0%, and establish a 500 billion yuan loan facility for service consumption and elderly care [3] - The PBOC will also increase the loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, and create risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds [3] - To stabilize the real estate market, the PBOC will lower the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, supporting the housing needs of families [3][4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will support the Central Huijin Investment Company in stabilizing the stock market, and plans to approve an additional 60 billion yuan for insurance funds to invest long-term [4] - The CSRC has released an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market [4] - A series of liquidity support policies demonstrate the central government's commitment to maintaining stock market stability amid global economic uncertainties [4]