一场突如其来的刑事调查，让美联储主席鲍威尔成为了美国历史上首位在任期间遭到刑事调查的美联储掌门人。 这场风波不仅在美国国内引发震荡，更引 发了全球央行界的集体关切。 此次刑事调查并非孤立事件。 自特朗普2025年再次就任总统以来，白宫与美联储的关系持续紧张。 特朗普多次批评鲍威尔不愿大幅降息，并以多种方式施 压，屡次要求其辞职。 2025年8月25日，特朗普以"涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈"为由将美联储理事丽莎·库克免职，这是其对美联储独立性的一次直接挑战。 2026年1月9日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室向美联储送达了大陪审团传票，正式对鲍威尔展开刑事调查。 调查焦点集中在美联储总部马里纳·埃克 尔斯大楼的翻修项目，以及鲍威尔2025年6月就该项目向国会所作证词是否属实。 这座建于1930年代的大楼自落成以来从未进行过全面翻新，存在石棉和铅污染等问题。 翻修项目自2022年启动，预计2027年完工，但预算已从最初的19亿 美元升至近25亿美元，超支约32%。 在2025年6月的国会听证会上，鲍威尔坚决否认了"豪华装修"的指控，他澄清2021年的提案中确实包含私人电梯、高层决策者私人餐厅等内容，但这些已在 后续方案中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. acquisition of Argentine pesos and the establishment of a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the Argentine central bank have raised concerns among Argentine economists about potential interference in the country's monetary policy and the implications of seeking economic aid from the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - Argentina's financial markets are experiencing turmoil, characterized by currency depreciation and declines in bond and stock markets, prompting the central bank to intervene using foreign exchange reserves [1] - President Milei has sought economic assistance from the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in response to the crisis [1] Group 2: Criticism of U.S. Involvement - Economists, including Diego Giacomini, have criticized the U.S. purchase of Argentine pesos as a "dangerous interference" in the country's monetary policy, warning that a reversal of this action could lead to severe currency and exchange rate issues [1] - Former Argentine officials, including former President Cristina Kirchner, have condemned the government's reliance on U.S. financial aid, labeling it as "drinking poison to quench thirst" and highlighting the historical failures of similar attempts to stabilize the economy through external borrowing [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly with the appointment of his ally, Stephen Milan, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3] - There is a strong speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with Trump advocating for multiple cuts in the next couple of years [3] - The ongoing power struggle around the Federal Reserve highlights Trump's attempts to intervene in monetary policy, raising questions about the independence of the institution [7] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, it could lead to increased global capital liquidity, potentially benefiting the Chinese market and A-shares [5] - A weaker dollar may result from the rate cuts, leading to a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, which could enhance China's international purchasing power [5] - However, the appreciation of the yuan could also diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese exports, potentially impacting trade orders from American consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan warns that while the U.S. economy appears stable in the short term, multiple shocks will eventually manifest, necessitating careful observation to foresee upcoming impacts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - Rajan highlights that the current economic data and stock market performance, including the S&P 500 reaching a historical high, may provide the Trump administration with more leeway to implement aggressive policies such as increasing tariffs and expanding fiscal deficits [1] - The average actual tariff level in the U.S. has reportedly reached 20%, which is ten times higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating significant trade policy shifts [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns - The delayed impact of tariffs on economic data is attributed to the government's repeated extensions of negotiation deadlines and companies' proactive measures such as stockpiling and adjusting supply chains [2] - Rajan expresses concern over the Trump administration's interference in monetary policy, citing recent pressures on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could undermine the Fed's independence [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Principles - Rajan criticizes the government's rejection of traditional economic principles such as central bank independence, low tariffs, and open markets, warning that these changes could lead to significant economic downturns [3] - He draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the Brexit scenario, suggesting that the potential negative consequences of current policies may only become apparent over time, similar to the delayed effects seen in the U.K. post-Brexit [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has expressed strong criticism of current interest rates, claiming they are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and urging the Federal Reserve to lower rates [1][3] Group 1: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has accused Fed Chairman Powell of causing an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower rates by at least 1 percentage point, contrasting with the Fed's current rate of 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Trump's insistence on rate cuts is linked to reducing government debt servicing costs, believing that a significant rate reduction could save taxpayers approximately $800 billion [4] Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions have raised concerns about the Fed's independence, with discussions around the potential loss of credibility and the emergence of a "fiscal-led era" [4] - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and the potential for political influence over monetary policy decisions [5] - The idea of appointing a "shadow chairman" to exert pressure on the Fed has been proposed, which could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the Fed's decision-making process [5][6] Group 3: Challenges for the Next Fed Chair - The next chair will likely be viewed as someone who may be expected to follow Trump's directives, which could damage their credibility [5] - Finding a candidate willing to take on the role of "shadow chairman" poses significant challenges, as it could harm their reputation and lead to undesirable outcomes [6] - The ongoing political pressure from Trump complicates the Fed's ability to maintain its traditional non-political stance, creating uncertainty in financial markets [6]