新华社布宜诺斯艾利斯10月9日电（记者王钟毅）针对美国政府9日购入阿根廷比索并与阿根廷央行 达成货币互换框架协议，阿经济界人士批评美方此举是对该国货币政策的"危险干涉"，对阿根廷向美经 济求援后果表示担忧。 近期，阿根廷金融市场出现动荡，本币贬值，债券和股票市场下跌，阿央行被迫动用外汇储备干预 汇市。为缓解困境，阿根廷总统米莱向美国和国际货币基金组织寻求经济援助。美国财政部长贝森特9 日在社交媒体发文说，美方当天购入阿根廷比索并与阿央行敲定一项200亿美元货币互换框架协议。 不少经济界人士担忧阿根廷向美经济求援后果。阿根廷经济学家迭戈·贾科米尼9日在社交媒体发文 说，美国购入阿根廷比索是对该国货币政策的"危险干涉"。"一个海外'巨头'不受约束地随意干预阿根廷 市场，这本不应该（发生）。如果它哪天改变主意反向操作，可能引发严重的货币和汇率问题。" 阿根廷央行前宏观经济分析部主任塞瓦斯蒂安·梅内斯卡尔接受当地媒体采访时说，阿政府为换取 美国援助作出了何种承诺有待观察。 分析人士认为，阿根廷金融市场动荡反映政府的经济改革措施难以破解结构性问题。阿根廷"政治 在线"网站评论说，美国对阿根廷的所谓经济援助没有可持续性， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly with the appointment of his ally, Stephen Milan, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3] - There is a strong speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with Trump advocating for multiple cuts in the next couple of years [3] - The ongoing power struggle around the Federal Reserve highlights Trump's attempts to intervene in monetary policy, raising questions about the independence of the institution [7] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, it could lead to increased global capital liquidity, potentially benefiting the Chinese market and A-shares [5] - A weaker dollar may result from the rate cuts, leading to a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, which could enhance China's international purchasing power [5] - However, the appreciation of the yuan could also diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese exports, potentially impacting trade orders from American consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan warns that while the U.S. economy appears stable in the short term, multiple shocks will eventually manifest, necessitating careful observation to foresee upcoming impacts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - Rajan highlights that the current economic data and stock market performance, including the S&P 500 reaching a historical high, may provide the Trump administration with more leeway to implement aggressive policies such as increasing tariffs and expanding fiscal deficits [1] - The average actual tariff level in the U.S. has reportedly reached 20%, which is ten times higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating significant trade policy shifts [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns - The delayed impact of tariffs on economic data is attributed to the government's repeated extensions of negotiation deadlines and companies' proactive measures such as stockpiling and adjusting supply chains [2] - Rajan expresses concern over the Trump administration's interference in monetary policy, citing recent pressures on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could undermine the Fed's independence [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Principles - Rajan criticizes the government's rejection of traditional economic principles such as central bank independence, low tariffs, and open markets, warning that these changes could lead to significant economic downturns [3] - He draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the Brexit scenario, suggesting that the potential negative consequences of current policies may only become apparent over time, similar to the delayed effects seen in the U.K. post-Brexit [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has expressed strong criticism of current interest rates, claiming they are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and urging the Federal Reserve to lower rates [1][3] Group 1: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has accused Fed Chairman Powell of causing an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower rates by at least 1 percentage point, contrasting with the Fed's current rate of 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Trump's insistence on rate cuts is linked to reducing government debt servicing costs, believing that a significant rate reduction could save taxpayers approximately $800 billion [4] Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions have raised concerns about the Fed's independence, with discussions around the potential loss of credibility and the emergence of a "fiscal-led era" [4] - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and the potential for political influence over monetary policy decisions [5] - The idea of appointing a "shadow chairman" to exert pressure on the Fed has been proposed, which could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the Fed's decision-making process [5][6] Group 3: Challenges for the Next Fed Chair - The next chair will likely be viewed as someone who may be expected to follow Trump's directives, which could damage their credibility [5] - Finding a candidate willing to take on the role of "shadow chairman" poses significant challenges, as it could harm their reputation and lead to undesirable outcomes [6] - The ongoing political pressure from Trump complicates the Fed's ability to maintain its traditional non-political stance, creating uncertainty in financial markets [6]