美国总统特朗普尚未正式提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)出任美联储主席。这一拖延虽然并非前所未有，但也不属常见情况， 并为这一本已因外界担忧美联储面临政治压力而充满不确定性的进程增添了更多变数。而美联储免受短期政治因素影响、并能够在不考虑总统偏好的情况下 制定利率政策，被广泛视为其控制通胀并引导经济保持健康运行能力的关键。 特朗普四周前宣布提名前美联储理事沃什为下一任美联储主席。自2010年以来，在白宫宣布提名与向参议院提交启动正式确认程序的文件之间，等待时间超 过四周的美联储主席及理事会席位提名人仅有两例。 沃什提名迟迟未推进的原因尚不清楚，不过共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(Thom Tillis)已承诺，只要美国司法部针对鲍威尔就华盛顿美联储大楼翻修问题向国会 作证一事的调查仍在进行，他就会阻止任何美联储提名的推进。蒂利斯称，该调查毫无根据，是特朗普政府的一种恐吓手段。而特朗普政府一直公开表达对 鲍威尔的不满，原因是其降息速度和幅度未达到政府期望。 预测机构LH Meyer的分析师德里克·唐(Derek Tang)表示："沃什提名迟迟没有进展确实令人感到奇 ...

据《华尔街日报》，知情人士透露，美联储正在对美国检察官珍妮·皮罗（Jeanine Pirro）在对美联储主 席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）进行刑事调查期间发出的两份传票发起一场秘密的法律挑战。 皮罗是特朗普的长期盟友，她展开这项调查是为了核实鲍威尔去年夏天就央行大楼翻新项目向国会作证 时是否提供了虚假证词。此举引发了鲍威尔前所未有的公开回应，他在1月11日的视频声明中表示，这 项调查只是特朗普为施压美联储降息、破坏央行独立性而持续行动的借口。 美联储在秘密程序中请求法官撤销传票，这可能会减轻或免除其回应的义务。其具体的法律论点暂无法 得知。在备受关注的调查中，传票接收方质疑检察官的要求过于宽泛或试图获取受法律特权保护的信 息，这种情况并不罕见。 由于适用于大陪审团刑事调查的保密规则，这场角力正在公众视线之外进行。 皮罗出席了1月8日白宫的一场活动，当时特朗普痛斥其下属的美国检察官未能尽快起诉他青睐的目标。 次日，司法部向美联储发出了两张传票，要求其在1月底前作出回应。 来源：金十数据 北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）多次表示，在司法部调查结束之前，他不会推进 包括 ...

杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾在1月11日发布视频声明，直言该调查是特朗普施压美联储降息、削弱央行独立性的借 口。 美联储已启动非公开法律程序，向法官提出撤销相关传票的请求，以免除配合调查的义务。目前，此次 法律抗辩的具体细节未对外公开，美联储提出抗辩的法律依据暂未披露。 在类似的刑事调查中，被传唤方以调查范围过广、要求调取受法律特权保护的信息为由对抗检方要求的 情况并不少见。受大陪审团刑事调查相关保密规定限制，此次美联储针对传票的法律抗辩全程处于非公 开状态。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 美联储正就美国司法部发出的两张传票发起闭门法律挑战，相关传票属于联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗针对 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的刑事调查范畴。《华尔街日报》报道显示，此次调查的核心指向鲍威尔去 年夏天在国会就美联储大楼翻新项目作证时是否存在虚假陈述。 来源：市场资讯 ...

来源：滚动播报 英国央行行长贝利：我认为美联储提名人沃什是央行独立性的坚定支持者。 ...

知情人士表示，许多人对这位执掌该机构的70岁法国女性接下来将采取何种行动一无所知。由于谈论非 公开交流内容，知情人士要求匿名。据看到的一份发给欧洲央行员工的内部备忘录，其中所述的信息并 没有比媒体报道更多。 困惑、不满、不安，在欧洲央行内部，工作人员对有关行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德将在任期结束前辞任的 报道感到震惊，也令人对她的权威产生质疑。 据知情人士称，多名管理委员会成员对于外界猜测几乎没有遭到反驳感到困惑不解。拉加德本周的回应 与她在2025年对类似报道的坚决否认形成了鲜明对比。 知情人士表示，许多人对这位执掌该机构的70岁法国女性接下来将采取何种行动一无所知。由于谈论非 公开交流内容，知情人士要求匿名。据看到的一份发给欧洲央行员工的内部备忘录，其中所述的信息并 没有比媒体报道更多。 欧洲央行发言人拒绝置评。 责任编辑：何云 困惑、不满、不安，在欧洲央行内部，工作人员对有关行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德将在任期结束前辞任的 报道感到震惊，也令人对她的权威产生质疑。 据知情人士称，多名管理委员会成员对于外界猜测几乎没有遭到反驳感到困惑不解。拉加德本周的回应 与她在2025年对类似报道的坚决否认形成了鲜明对比。 一些人 ...

凯投宏观的Andrew Kennigham在一份报告中称，有关欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德提前离任的说法 对该央行来说不是好事。拉加德的任期定于2027年底结束，有报道称，她可能会提前卸任，以便让法国 总统马克龙在明年法国大选前能参与挑选她的继任者。Kennigham说，该报道听起来可信，可能会损害 欧洲央行作为全球最独立的央行之一的形象。"这件事表明，欧洲的政治家——就像其他地方的政治家 一样——会试图变通规则，以确保由他们属意的候选人来掌管。"他说，这一潜在举动不太可能对货币 政策产生重大影响，但有加剧政治紧张局势的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 130,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path [1][4]. Employment Data - January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, outperforming most prior forecasts [1][4]. - Despite the strong employment figures, there are concerns regarding the representativeness of single-month data due to previous downward revisions [2]. Policy Impact - The strong employment data has significantly reduced the probability of interest rate cuts in March and April, with market expectations for the first rate cut now pushed to mid-year or later [1][5]. - The divergence in views between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and central bank independence adds uncertainty to the market outlook [2][6]. Political Risks - There is a notable disagreement between the White House and the Federal Reserve on the pace of rate cuts and the issue of central bank independence, which could introduce mid-term risks to the market [2][6]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then retreated, indicating investor caution amid the balance between economic resilience and delayed rate cuts [3]. - Bond markets saw short-term yields rise, and the yield curve experienced fluctuations, reflecting a shift in trader expectations regarding rate cuts [3]. Future Catalysts - Upcoming CPI data and weekly jobless claims will further assess the validity of the rate cut path [7]. - The strong performance of January's employment data has diminished the urgency for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but the potential for easing remains if inflation or employment data declines [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed stronger-than-expected results, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a reassessment of interest rate cut expectations by the market [1][4] Employment Data - January's non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, exceeding most institutional forecasts [1][4] - Despite the positive employment data, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth, as previous employment figures have often been revised downward [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the stock market experienced a rise followed by a pullback, indicating investor uncertainty between economic resilience and delayed rate cuts [3] - The bond market saw short-term yields rise, and the probability of rate cuts before June was significantly reduced by traders [3] Policy Implications - Expectations for rate cuts in March and April have diminished, with a higher likelihood of any cuts being postponed until mid-year or later [1][5] - The White House emphasizes having "ample" room for rate cuts, while there are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and necessity of such cuts [2][6] Political Factors - There is a notable divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts and the independence of the central bank, which could impact market pricing [2][6] Future Monitoring - Upcoming CPI and initial jobless claims data will be crucial in validating the direction of monetary policy [7] - The market is expected to remain in a "data-driven and policy-disturbed" fluctuation pattern, with a focus on inflation and employment indicators as key determinants for future trends [7]

当地时间周二（2月10日），克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，她认为当前的货币政策"处在一个良 好的位置"，可以维持利率不变。根据她的预测，美联储可能会"在相当长一段时间内按兵不动"。 哈马克是今年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有轮值投票权的四位地区联储主席之一，她周二在俄亥 俄州哥伦布市举行的俄亥俄银行联盟经济峰会上发表了讲话。 美联储上个月将联邦基金利率维持在3.5%—3.75%的区间，此前曾在去年秋季连续三次降息。 "我认为货币政策目前处在一个适合保持观望的阶段，我们可以在评估最新数据的同时，权衡是否以及 如何进一步调整政策。根据我的预测，我们可能会在相当长一段时间内维持现状，"哈马克表示。 哈马克指出，美国通胀水平仍然偏高，并且在过去两年多时间里基本呈横向波动。她认为，今年通胀率 仍可能维持在接近3%的水平，与前两年大致相同。 美联储将2%设定为长期通胀率目标，并且倾向于以核心PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）为通胀衡量指 标。 哈马克称，自己需要看到更具决定性的证据，证明价格水平正在持续回落。与其试图对利率进行"微 调"，她更倾向于在评估去年秋季三次降息对经济增长影响的过程中，"在政策上保持耐心"。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival. - Alumina: It shows a bottom - up rebound. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540, up 225 from T - 1, 202 from T - 5, 975 from T - 22, and 2,375 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 23,625. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,130, up 20 from T - 1, 74 from T - 5, 144 from T - 22, and 265 from T - 66. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,868, up 44 from T - 1, 96 from T - 5, 117 from T - 22, and 30 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 2,862. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165, up 215 from T - 1 and 325 from T - 5. The night - session closing price was 22,225. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed compared with previous periods, and the spot premium and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, up 22,000 tons from T - 1, 46,000 tons from T - 5, and 237,000 tons from T - 22. - The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164,500 tons, up 9,000 tons from T - 1, 14,100 tons from T - 5, and 86,000 tons from T - 22. - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, import and export profit and loss of aluminum, and other indicators changed compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2646, with no change from T - 1. The CIF price at Lianyungang and other prices also had corresponding changes. - The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 591, up 272 from T - 1. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 and the total inventory of three places also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Other Raw Materials - The prices of imported bauxite from Indonesia, Australia, and Guinea, and the price of caustic soda in Shaanxi all had different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. 4. Comprehensive News and Trend Intensity - The Federal Reserve may reach an agreement with the US Treasury, which may affect the $30 - trillion Treasury market and cause concerns about the loss of central bank independence, rising inflation expectations, and a decline in the dollar's attractiveness. - Wall Street expects the US core CPI to rebound to about 0.3% in January, and inflation is expected to peak in spring and then gradually decline. - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].