2025年7月31日，特朗普宣布将对印度加征25%的关税，并在短短几天后，于8月6日再次加码，决定对印度加征额外的25%关税，使得总额达到50%。然而， 在8月6日的宣布中，特朗普给予了21天的暂缓期，期间印美两国将进行谈判。截止目前，尽管双方已经进行了多轮磋商，但仍未能达成任何协议。这意味 着，如果双方在接下来的两天内依然未能达成共识，印度将面临最高50%的关税，这无疑会对印度的经济产生深远影响。 此外，印度政府已经开始采取一系列国内措施，以应对目前的经济压力。近日，印度总理莫迪宣布，将下调日常消费品的商品与服务税（GST），此举将为 民众减轻数百亿美元的税负，并希望能够刺激国内需求。莫迪还曾表示，鼓励印度民众支持国产商品的消费，以提振经济。因此，印度目前在关税谈判中的 态度显得非常强硬，似乎并不急于达成协议。相比于此前与美国达成协议的英国、日本和欧盟，印度不仅没有迅速达成协议，反而开始采取反制措施，面对 50%的关税威胁，仍表现出强大的应对能力。 在全球金融市场上，尽管特朗普和印度的关税冲突仍在继续，另一场风暴也正在悄然酝酿。上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话引发了市场的强烈反应。股市 出现了大幅上涨，道琼斯 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 多位经济学家警告，全球发达经济体或正在进入财政主导的时代。分析师表示，这意味着央行独立性遭遇侵蚀，被迫服 务于财政压力，而全球性的这种趋势可能推高通胀，引发金融风险，拖累经济增长。 所谓财政主导指的是，财政需求决定货币政策的状态。2008年全球金融危机后，主要国家进行了十数年的财政刺激政 策，再加上人口老龄化、国防支出和能源转型补贴，以及新冠疫情，这一系列因素导致多国政府的资产负债率大幅飙 升。与此同时，利率正处于多年来的高水平，加剧了偿债负担，导致各国政府希望央行放松货币政策，来应对创纪录的 主权债务。 在这些国家中，表现最为突出的无疑是美国。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普自年初再次上台以来不断施压美联储降息以配合 其宽松的财政政策，并多次威胁要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。上个月他还表示，美联储基准利率应比目前 4.25%-4.50%的区间低3个百分点，这样每年可节省1万亿美元的利息成本。 除了发发牢骚，特朗普还将手伸进了美联储。当地时间周一他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务"立即生效"，如果特朗普成功罢免库克，将创下美国历史先例——此前从未有在任美 ...

（文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 欧洲中央银行行长拉加德当地时间24日在接受美国媒体采访时表示，央行独立性具有"决定性意义"，并 警告称任何对其独立性的干预都可能带来严重后果。她是在美国总统特朗普近期多次施压美联储的背景 下作出的上述表态。拉加德指出，"如果一家中央银行失去独立性，或者这种独立性受到威胁，它就会 变得功能失调"，继而引发"不稳定，甚至更严重的情况"。她强调，独立性是央行有效履职的前提。 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 昨晚，牵动全球金融市场的鲍威尔讲话定档在美东时间周五10点，市场屏息以待。 同一时间，市场突然转向。此前一周还在下跌的美股，在这个时间点集体拉升，三大指数齐刷刷翻红。 鲍威尔开场第一句话，就暗示美联储可能在9月降息。这句话迅速点燃了交易员的情绪，利率预期被重置，美债收益率下行，美元直线回落，风险 资产全面走强！ 昨夜， 美股 全线反弹 有股民发帖表达疑惑：所有股票和ETFs在上午9点（美国中部标准时间，美东时间10点）都上涨了。发生了什么？我感到困惑……我们整个星期都 在下跌……而现在突然在星期五上午9点（美国中部标准时间）正好上涨了。还有其他人也看到这种情况吗…… 就在整个市场还没反应之时，鲍威尔暗示"9月或降息"，让市场沸腾。美股三大指数集体飙升。 道琼斯指数暴涨846点，收于 45,631.74 点，历史上首次站上4.56万点。 01 纳斯 达克上涨 1.88% ，标普500上涨 1.52% ，结束此前连续多日的下跌。小盘股弹性最强，罗素2000涨近 3.9% 。 板块层面，大型科技股全线反弹。 特斯拉大涨6.22%，创下两个月来最大单日涨幅，一夜之间市值增加逾64 ...

美国总统特朗普正推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。媒体分析称，如果罢免成功，他将有 机会通过掌控七人理事会的多数席位，进一步扩大对白宫对美联储的影响力。 美联储官员今年至今一直无视特朗普降低利率的要求，理由是其关税可能带来的通胀风险。 分析认为，如果库克离职，将让特朗普有可能任命四位美联储理事，使其在七人理事会中占据多数。特 朗普在第一任期内已任命了其中两位现任理事，并在不久前已提名其经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran）填补由拜登任命的阿德里亚娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）近期提前腾出的第三个席 位。 这一策略符合特朗普在联邦政府其他机构董事会中的做法，即试图以共和党提名者充实董事会。 媒体报道，特朗普已经明确表示，他希望美联储大幅降息，而美联储在主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的 领导下，今年一直面临来自白宫的持续攻击，无论是货币政策决策还是一项大型建筑翻修工程的成本超 支等问题。 周三，特朗普呼吁库克辞职，此前联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）指控库克在 贷款申请中撒谎以获取更优惠条款，涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。库克的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, trading above $3,342 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following President Trump's request for Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign, raising concerns about central bank independence [1] - Gold prices increased by nearly 1% after Trump's request, with potential implications for future Fed appointments if Cook resigns, although she has expressed intent to remain [1] - Market participants are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference for future policy clues, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut next month, which would benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Despite achieving record highs in the first four months of the year, gold has seen a cumulative increase of over 25% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - Analysts from various institutions, including UBS Wealth Management, believe there is still upward potential for gold prices [1] - Fitch Solutions' BMI department forecasts that gold prices will remain elevated in the coming weeks as the market prepares for a potential Fed rate cut in September, predicting prices to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that major global economies are entering a "fiscal-dominated" era, where rising government debt and borrowing costs exert significant political pressure on central banks, potentially compromising their ability to control inflation [1][2][4] - The OECD projects that sovereign borrowing in high-income countries will reach a record $17 trillion in 2023, indicating a growing challenge for central banks attempting to normalize their balance sheets [2] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield has reached 5.6%, the highest in 25 years, reflecting the increasing cost of long-term borrowing [3] Group 2 - Concerns about political interference in monetary policy are rising, as evidenced by the widening yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating market anxiety over long-term inflation and debt risks [4] - Notable investors, including Ray Dalio, warn of extreme risks such as a "debt death spiral," where governments may need to borrow more to pay rising interest, leading to potential currency devaluation [6] - The volatility in the market complicates the issuance of long-term bonds, pushing governments towards riskier short-term debt, which increases their vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations [6]

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is expected to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy amid political pressures and mixed economic signals [3][6][15]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [5][8]. - The federal funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [8]. - Housing sector stocks, such as PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton, have seen price increases ranging from 4.2% to 8.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% rise [8]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Powell faces intense political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized him for not cutting rates sooner and is reportedly considering potential replacements [11][12]. - The political interference complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, as Powell is cautious about the inflationary effects of the administration's tariff policies [12]. Group 3: Economic Data - Mixed economic data adds to the complexity of the situation, with inflation pressures remaining stubborn. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, the largest increase since January, with a year-over-year rate of 3.1% [14]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data [14]. Group 4: Independence and Legacy - Powell is expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review during his speech, which is seen as a key strategy to defend the central bank's long-term independence [15][16]. - The potential semantic shift in describing employment conditions may provide the Fed with more flexibility in adjusting rates based on varying economic conditions [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, which is currently held by Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January [1][4][7] Group 1: Nomination Details - The nomination of Miran is intended to fill the position left by Kugler, who will officially resign on August 8 [7] - Miran has been working with Trump since the beginning of his second term and is noted for his exceptional expertise in economics [4] - The nomination requires approval from the U.S. Senate [4] Group 2: Miran's Background and Views - Miran previously served as a senior economic advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [4] - He has been a critic of the Federal Reserve's recent performance and advocates for fundamental reforms within the institution [8] Group 3: Proposed Reforms - In a 24-page reform plan co-authored with Dan Katz, Miran attributes the Federal Reserve's policy errors to "groupthink" [9] - The report argues that the Federal Reserve has extended its authority into political realms beyond its statutory limits, raising questions about its operational independence [10] - A notable reform proposal suggests separating monetary policy formulation from banking regulation and oversight functions, which would require legislative action [10][11]