在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容。 文I不可史意 编辑I不可史意 前言 人工智能革命正在重塑就业市场：数据录入、初级程序员等岗位被大量替代，导致就业增长放缓；但 AI 伦理师、提示工程师等新岗位需求激增，企业抢 人推高薪资，形成严重技能错配。 大家好，小编我呀，是一个爱扒关于美国事情的热心博主，今天就跟着我一起来看看，美联储的首要顾虑，那就不得不提到始终顽固的通胀。 截至 2025 年 10 月，美国 CPI 同比增速仍停留在 3%，看似较 2022 年 9% 的峰值大幅回落，但距离 2% 的官方目标仍有 1 个百分点的差距。 这 1 个百分点，在央行语境里堪比 "地球到月球的距离"—— 美联储如同向全球承诺 "将 200 斤胖子减到 120 斤" 的教练，如今胖子刚减到 140 斤，若此时 松劲，通胀很可能反弹，此前两年激进加息的代价将全部白费，美联储的信誉也会彻底崩塌。 更棘手的是通胀的内部结构。鲍威尔重点关注的 "剔除住房的核心服务通胀" 仍高达 4.5%，这一指标直接反映工资相关的物价压力。 理发、看病、育儿、维修等服务价格持续高涨，根源在 ...

美联储理事丽莎.库克（Lisa Cook）的法律团队正式回应特朗普政府提出的抵押贷款欺诈指控，称相关 指控"毫无根据"。 周一美联储理事库克的律师Abbe Lowell致函美国司法部长Pam Bondi，称库克贷款文件中的差异要么在 申请时是准确的，要么是"无意的标注"，考虑到向贷款机构披露的其他信息，这些不构成欺诈。 华尔街见闻提及，美国最高法院已暂时阻止特朗普将其免职，将于明年1月举行听证。 Lowell在信中还指控美国联邦住房金融局局长William Pulte选择性地针对特朗普的政治对手，同时忽视 针对共和党官员的类似指控。正是Pulte在8月向司法部提交了针对库克的刑事举报，成为特朗普试图将 其免职的理由。 律师逐点驳斥指控 在发给美国司法部长Pam Bondi及负责调查抵押贷款欺诈的"特别检察官"Ed Martin的信中，库克的律师 Abbe Lowell对指控进行了详细驳斥，称这些说法"在事实面前不堪一击"。 Lowell写道，Pulte提交给司法部的刑事移交材料是"毫无根据的"。他指出： 这些行为包括最近解雇美国联邦住房金融局代理监察长，以及解雇房利美的多名内部监察人员。房利美 是美国联邦住房 ...

根据最新安排，美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普总统解雇美联储理事库克一案进行口头辩论，这起 案件是围绕央行独立性展开的关键性较量。 美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎.库克（Lisa Cook）的法律战即将进入关键阶段。 此前该裁决确立，美国国会可以保护独立机构的领导人，使其在没有不当行为的情况下免于被总统解 雇。 如果最高法院推翻这一长达数十年的先例，将可能增强总统解雇独立机构负责人的权力，从而直接影响 到库克的案件走向。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 自今年8月下旬以来，这位经济学家一直留任其职位。当时特朗普表示要因涉嫌贷款欺诈而将其解职， 但库克已否认相关指控。 美国法院此前表示，将在1月为期两周的庭审期内审理此案。值得注意的是，大法官们将辩论安排在该 庭审期的最后一天，这或许表明法院并不急于处理此事。 关联案件或影响走向 此外，美国最高法院还将于12月审理另一起可能影响库克案结果的案件。 最高法院计划在今年12月审理一宗涉及联邦贸 ...

Core Insights - The interview with Jacob A. Frenkel highlights that Israel's economic transformation is not reliant on a single policy but rather a combination of strategies aimed at stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2] Group 1 - The influx of high-skilled immigrants and improvements in geopolitical conditions have provided opportunities for Israel's economic transformation [2] - Israel has successfully attracted foreign investment and established a "startup nation" model centered around high technology, demonstrating strong economic resilience even amidst conflict [2] - The independence of the central bank is emphasized as a crucial factor in ensuring that monetary policy remains unaffected by short-term political pressures, focusing instead on long-term economic stability [2] Group 2 - Effective public communication is identified as an essential component of Israel's success, helping the public understand and support economic policies [2]

Core Insights - The interview with Jacob A. Frenkel highlights that Israel's economic transformation is not reliant on a single policy but rather a combination of strategies aimed at stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [1] Group 1: Economic Policies - Israel's economic success is attributed to decisive actions in stabilizing inflation and reducing budget deficits [1] - Development of capital markets has played a crucial role in attracting foreign investment [1] - The flexibility of the exchange rate has contributed to the resilience of the economy, even during conflicts [1] Group 2: Socio-Political Factors - The influx of high-skilled immigrants and improvements in geopolitical conditions have provided opportunities for economic transformation [1] - The independence of the central bank is emphasized as a cornerstone for ensuring monetary policy is free from short-term political interference [1] Group 3: Public Communication - Effective public communication is essential for helping citizens understand and support economic policies, which is a key factor in Israel's success [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold investment, highlighting the continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on economic forecasts [3]. Market Analysis - The world's largest gold ETF held 1,042.06 tons of gold as of November 7, with an increase of 1.71 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 2.86 tons for the month [2]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with October showing continued growth [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 38 days, affecting federal employee salaries and leading to concerns about a potential slowdown in GDP growth for Q4 [3]. - Wall Street analysts warn that the combination of three years of quantitative tightening and significant government debt issuance is pushing bank reserves into a precarious situation [3]. Economic Indicators - A New York Fed survey indicates that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the rate from the previous year [3]. - Short-term inflation expectations have decreased, while consumer confidence in the U.S. is nearing record lows, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - The price of spot gold in Hong Kong rose to $3,999.68 per ounce amid these economic conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - For short-term trading, the support level for gold is around $3,985.00, with bullish targets set at $4,020.00 and $4,028.00 if the price remains above this level [4]. - Alternative strategies suggest a bearish outlook if the price falls below $3,985.00, targeting $3,964.00 and $3,948.00 [5]. - The RSI technical indicator is currently near the neutral zone, indicating potential for further price movement [7].

Core Points - The relationship between the U.S. and Canada has deteriorated significantly due to a $75 million advertisement in Ontario that referenced Reagan's anti-tariff stance, marking the end of North American economic integration [1][3] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's statement reflects the shift from traditional advantages of close ties with the U.S. to vulnerabilities, with Canada heavily reliant on the U.S. for 75% of its exports [3][5] - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian goods, leading to a 7.5% decline in Canadian exports and a 1.6% year-on-year GDP drop in Q2 2025 [3][5] Trade Relations - The breakdown in trade relations began on October 23, 2025, when Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations and imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods [3] - Trump's previous threats to halt negotiations over Canada's digital services tax further exacerbated uncertainties for Canadian businesses [5] Economic Impact - Canada is implementing a "de-Americanization" plan to increase non-U.S. market exports by CAD 300 billion over the next decade, including trade agreements with Indonesia and the UAE [5][7] - The Montreal Port expansion, costing CAD 1.6 to 2.3 billion, aims to enhance trade logistics but faces natural limitations and historical trust issues due to strikes [7] Supply Chain Reconfiguration - The trade rift is causing significant restructuring in supply chains, particularly in the North American automotive sector, with Canada reducing tariff-free import quotas for major automakers [7] - Unemployment in Canada has reached a nine-year high, with 500,000 jobs in Ontario at risk due to the trade tensions [7] Global Economic Trends - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions over interest rate cuts, with implications for the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency [9][11] - The ongoing trade conflict may accelerate the process of global multipolarity, although markets in Southeast Asia currently lack the purchasing power to replace the U.S. market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Core Points - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed by May next year [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] - The selection of the new chairman is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1] Candidate Selection - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has been narrowed down to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra plans to conduct new interviews and submit a "quality candidate list" to President Trump by the end of November [3] - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect complex factors surrounding Powell's position [3] Candidate Profiles - Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett are seen as frontrunners, both having close ties to Trump [4] - Hassett's strong loyalty to Trump makes him an attractive choice, but his appointment could threaten the Fed's independence [4] - Walsh has previously criticized the Fed's deviation from its price stability mission, aligning with Trump's views [4] - Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with Fed operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [4] - Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden era, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [4] - Reed, a Wall Street figure, offers a fresh perspective but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy [5]

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to five candidates, including current governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder [1] - Key issues in this selection include interest rate policy and central bank independence, with candidates expressing varying views on the need for policy adjustments in response to labor market conditions and economic growth [1] - The new chair's stance will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future communication and policy operations, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2 - Trump may announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair earlier than usual, which could lead to market adjustments in interest rate and policy expectations [2] - The ongoing public disagreement between Trump and Powell highlights concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations, emphasizing the need for institutional independence [2] - The new chair's policy orientation will be a focal point for the market, with potential implications for interest rates, the strength of the dollar, and the performance of risk assets [2] Group 3 - The discussion around a leadership change at the Federal Reserve is gaining attention, with candidates like Warsh and Rieder being considered for their respective backgrounds and experiences [3] - The incoming chair will face a complex environment characterized by high inflation, slowing growth, and political pressures, marking a potential turning point in global monetary policy [3]