相较于美国经济复苏乏力与失业率上升的现状，英国经济面临的增长停滞问题在一定程度上被抵消。英 国政府的财政预算计划也可能为经济带来一定支撑。 美元走势成为影响该汇率另一重要因素。近期美元指数持续走弱，已跌至数月低点，年内累计跌幅超过 9%。虽然美国三季度GDP增速表现较好，但市场对美联储可能转向降息的预期并未改变，叠加美国经 济存在隐忧，美元整体仍处于承压状态。英镑走强与美元疲软形成共振，进一步助推汇率突破1.35关键 位置。 从技术分析角度看，英镑兑美元在突破1.35后，中期走势偏多，但也存在短期调整可能。由于圣诞假期 期间市场流动性下降，汇率波动可能被放大。此外，如果后续美国经济数据表现强劲或美联储释放偏鹰 信号，可能带动美元反弹，从而限制英镑进一步上行。目前1.34被视为重要支撑水平，上方1.3550至 1.36区间则构成主要阻力。技术指标显示，虽然整体趋势偏强，但上涨动能有所放缓。 周五英镑兑美元汇率小幅回落至1.3518，仍持稳于1.35关口上方。 该汇率此前一度升至1.3502，创下10月以来新高，年内累计涨幅超过8%。当前走势主要由英美央行政 策分歧、美元走势及市场流动性变化共同驱动。 英国央行在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking, a retreat in safe-haven demand, a strong US dollar, and adverse impacts on the precious metals market [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The recent plunge in gold prices is a result of profit-taking and a decline in safe-haven demand, driven by optimistic signals in international trade, ceasefire expectations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and potential resolution of the US government shutdown [2]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.34% to 98.98, influenced by the election of Japan's new Prime Minister, which further supported the dollar and increased the cost for non-US currency investors to purchase gold [2]. - Silver prices fell by 7% to $48.62 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also saw declines exceeding 5%, indicating a broader weakness in the precious metals sector [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold formed a "bearish engulfing" pattern, indicating strong bearish signals and effective suppression of bullish momentum [4]. - The break below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages marks the beginning of an adjustment phase, with the next key support level at the weekly MA5, currently around 3990 [4]. - The four-hour chart indicated a potential "double top" pattern, with actual price movement exceeding expectations, highlighting market uncertainty [6]. Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase lasting two to three weeks, while medium to long-term factors such as geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying demand may continue to support gold [3]. - Upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve meetings could pose potential impacts on gold prices, but the core value of gold as a hedging tool remains unchanged [3].