过去几个月英国通胀持续升温且未见明显放缓迹象，市场普遍预期英国央行并不急于在短期内开启降息 周期。货币政策委员会成员Catherine Mann近期的发言值得关注，她强调利率仍需维持在高位以抑制通 胀预期，但也暗示若国内需求出现超预期下滑，央行可能会考虑采取更迅速、幅度更大的降息行动。这 一表态反映出英国央行正试图在控制通胀与避免经济硬着陆之间寻求艰难平衡。 另一方面，美国发生了一起罕见且具有制度冲击性的事件：美国总统特朗普宣布解除美联储理事Lisa Cook的职务，成为美联储111年历史上首位遭总统直接解职的理事。特朗普公开施压，要求美联储尽快 降息，并表示不排除与之对簿公堂。这一行为引发市场对央行独立性能否在政治压力下得以维持的深切 忧虑，同时也在短期内强化了市场对货币政策更快转向宽松的预期。 从外汇市场反应来看，美元在短线出现技术性反弹，暂时脱离前一交易日的低点。然而从中长期来看， 若美联储独立性受到持续性侵蚀，美元信用和汇率或将承受更显著压力。目前CME FedWatch工具显 示，市场对美联储9月降息25个基点的概率预期已升至87%，表明宽松预期仍在进一步定价过程中。 英镑兑美元目前交投于1.345 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British economy demonstrated unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3%, alleviating the urgency for the Bank of England to cut interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing support for the British pound [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates during the monetary policy meetings in September and December [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for the remainder of 2025, balancing economic growth support and inflation control [1] - Analysts suggest that this prudent monetary policy will continue to support the British pound in the medium to long term, especially amid diverging monetary policies of major global central banks [1] Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar is on an upward trend, approaching key short-term resistance levels of 1.3588 and 1.3618 [1] - The currency has broken through the psychological level of 1.3500, supported by the 55-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3541, signaling bullish momentum [1]

Core Insights - The British pound has rebounded against the euro due to reduced long positions on the euro by investors [1] - The rebound is influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, which has alleviated concerns about a US economic recession [1] - The overall strength of the dollar has contributed to the decline of the euro, as market fears regarding tariffs impacting the eurozone economy have increased [1] Currency Movements - The British pound fell to a two-month low against the US dollar but rose to a near one-week high against the euro [1] - The euro's decline is attributed to market concerns over tariffs potentially harming the eurozone economy [1] - The report from ING's head of foreign exchange strategy, Chris Turner, highlights the reduction of previously held long positions on the euro by investors as a factor in the pound's rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced a short-term decline against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.3614 [1] Group 1 - The British pound has dropped by 20 points in a short time frame against the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized above 1.3300, with the latest rate at 1.3308, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% as the market digests the recent economic data [1] - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% and the previous quarter's growth of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [1] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have decreased, with projections for a cut in 2025 dropping from 70 basis points to 44 basis points following the recent economic data [1] Group 2 - Hawkish comments from Bank of England officials have influenced market expectations, with a key speech from committee member Swati Dhingra anticipated [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains trapped in a narrow range around 1.3300, with buying pressure preventing a drop below the 50-day EMA at approximately 1.3110 [2] - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the significance of trade agreements with the US and India despite facing economic headwinds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar, reaching a value of 1.3306 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the British pound in the foreign exchange market [1] - The current exchange rate of 1.3306 suggests potential implications for trade and investment strategies involving GBP and USD [1] - The 0.5% increase reflects market sentiment and could influence investor behavior in currency trading [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound is expected to benefit from a weak US dollar, with predictions of it rising to pre-Brexit levels against the dollar by 2026 [1][3] - Athanasios Vamvakidis from Bank of America forecasts that the GBP/USD exchange rate will exceed 1.50 by 2026, marking a significant recovery since the Brexit referendum [1][3] - The pound has appreciated approximately 7% this year, primarily due to the global sell-off of the dollar influenced by US trade policies [3] Group 2 - Bank of America predicts the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and 1.3% by 2026, while the EU's GDP growth is expected to be lower at 0.8% this year [4] - Vamvakidis anticipates that the euro will depreciate against the pound, with the EUR/GBP exchange rate expected to fall by about 3.5% to 0.82 by year-end [4] - Other major banks, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, also predict further appreciation of the pound, with forecasts of GBP/USD reaching 1.37 by 2025 and 1.39 by the end of this year [4]