11月25日（周二）亚洲时段，英镑兑美元窄幅震荡，最新报1.3106，较昨日收盘价1.3107微跌0.01%。 今日开1.3108，最高1.3115，最低1.3099，波动收窄。因美元指数短期企稳、市场等待美国经济数据指 引，英镑暂陷整理。周度ADP显示美国就业疲软，若后续数据走弱，英镑仍有上行动能。 英镑走势核心受英美政策差与英国经济数据主导。盘中10年期美债收益率跌至4.035%，美元收益优势 削弱；而英国10月零售销售数据前瞻超预期，市场对英国央行降息预期降温，政策差与经济预期共振支 撑英镑。 美联储降息预期是重要推手，CME数据显示12月降息概率升至82.9%，美元指数承压下行直接利好英 镑。此外，美股大涨提振风险偏好，叠加英国制造业PMI边际回升，增强了英镑汇率韧性。日元干预对 美元支撑有限，进一步打开英镑上行空间。 技术面看，英镑处窄幅整理阶段。短期支撑为1.3099（日内低点），若守住将上探1.3115（日内高 点），突破后有望测试1.3130（近期阻力）。当前市场流动性收紧，关键点位突破或引发趋势性行情。 上行阻力先看1.3115（日内高点），进一步为1.3130及1.3150。当前多空动能均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced a short-term decline against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.3111 [1] Group 1 - The British pound fell by more than ten points in a short time frame against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's recent interest rate decision has led to a short-term decline in the British pound against the US dollar, dropping approximately 30 points to a current rate of 1.3063 [1]. Group 1 - The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision on November 6 [1]. - Following the announcement, the British pound experienced a decline against the US dollar [1]. - The current exchange rate of the British pound is reported at 1.3063 [1].

Core Points - The GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen below 1.3454, marking a decline of -0.5029% [1] - The current exchange rate represents a four-month low and a 43-month high [1] Exchange Rate Summary - As of 19:52 on September 24, 2025, 100 RMB exchanges for 10.4220 GBP, or conversely, 100 GBP exchanges for 959.6008 RMB [1] - The current USD exchange rates are: buying price (spot) at 711.4900, buying price (cash) at 711.4900, selling price (spot) at 714.4800, selling price (cash) at 714.4800, and the Bank of China conversion rate at 711.4900 [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - European financial markets experienced a significant sell-off on September 2, with the British pound dropping 1.52% against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.3340, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7 [2] - The German stock index fell over 2%, while the UK 30-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69% [1][4] - In the US, major stock indices also faced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising more than 19%, indicating increased market volatility [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in bond yields across Europe is attributed to increased fiscal spending by various countries to address geopolitical security and economic recovery, leading to concerns about the sustainability of public finances [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.69%, while Germany's and France's yields also saw significant increases, with Germany at 3.40% and France surpassing 4.5% for the first time since 2011 [4] - Analysts noted a "vicious cycle" where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - Concerns over the sustainability of UK public finances were heightened by proposals for a windfall tax on bank reserves, which could further pressure the British pound [5] - The UK government is expected to implement additional tax measures, raising fears of increased fiscal pressure [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5] Group 4: Pension System Reforms - Structural reforms in the Dutch pension system are impacting the long-term bond market in Europe, as the new system encourages younger members to invest more in equities, reducing demand for long-duration hedging instruments [6] - The Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU total, holding nearly €300 billion in European bonds [7] Group 5: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in Europe is influenced by inflation pressures, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [8][9] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.3%, exceeding market expectations, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [8] - Market expectations suggest a 25% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates before December, amid ongoing economic growth and inflation risks [8][9]

Group 1 - The UK inflation has been rising without signs of significant slowdown, leading to market expectations that the Bank of England is not in a hurry to initiate a rate cut cycle in the short term [1] - Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the need to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation expectations, while also hinting that a sharper rate cut could be considered if domestic demand declines unexpectedly [1] - The Bank of England is attempting to balance controlling inflation and avoiding an economic hard landing [1] Group 2 - A rare and institutionally impactful event occurred in the US when President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in the Fed's 111-year history that a governor was directly removed by a president [3] - Trump's public pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank under political pressure, while also strengthening market expectations for a quicker shift to accommodative monetary policy [3] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, suggesting that easing expectations are being further priced in [3] Group 3 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently sensitive to intertwined policy and political risks, with the UK's persistent inflation supporting a tighter monetary policy, while concerns over the Fed's independence are creating potential long-term weakness for the dollar [4] - The future direction of the GBP/USD pair will largely depend on whether UK inflation can steadily decline and whether the Fed will implement a rate cut in September as expected, along with the dovish guidance that follows [4] - Political uncertainties in Europe and changes in market liquidity may amplify volatility in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains strong around 1.3530 following a dovish signal from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which has boosted investor risk appetite [1][2][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated a willingness to adjust the restrictive monetary policy stance due to changing risk balances and the current restrictive nature of monetary policy [3] - He warned of rising downside risks in the labor market, which could necessitate policy adjustments [3] - Powell downplayed the long-term inflation risks posed by tariffs, suggesting that the likelihood of sustained inflation due to tariffs is low given labor market challenges [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The dovish tone from Powell has pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yields, with the DXY index struggling around 97.60, close to a four-week low, and the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.27% [2] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Fed [4] Group 3: UK Economic Challenges - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted severe challenges facing the UK economy, including a declining labor participation rate since the COVID-19 pandemic, which has weakened potential economic growth [5] - Bailey warned that labor market issues are likely to persist due to ongoing demographic trends, such as an aging population [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD - The GBP/USD exchange rate has formed an "inverse head and shoulders" pattern, indicating a bullish reversal signal, with the neckline around 1.3580 [7] - The short-term trend for GBP/USD has turned bullish as it trades above the 20-day EMA, currently at approximately 1.3466 [7] - Key support is identified at the August 11 low of 1.3400, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3790 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The British economy demonstrated unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3%, alleviating the urgency for the Bank of England to cut interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing support for the British pound [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates during the monetary policy meetings in September and December [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for the remainder of 2025, balancing economic growth support and inflation control [1] - Analysts suggest that this prudent monetary policy will continue to support the British pound in the medium to long term, especially amid diverging monetary policies of major global central banks [1] Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar is on an upward trend, approaching key short-term resistance levels of 1.3588 and 1.3618 [1] - The currency has broken through the psychological level of 1.3500, supported by the 55-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3541, signaling bullish momentum [1]

Core Insights - The British pound has rebounded against the euro due to reduced long positions on the euro by investors [1] - The rebound is influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, which has alleviated concerns about a US economic recession [1] - The overall strength of the dollar has contributed to the decline of the euro, as market fears regarding tariffs impacting the eurozone economy have increased [1] Currency Movements - The British pound fell to a two-month low against the US dollar but rose to a near one-week high against the euro [1] - The euro's decline is attributed to market concerns over tariffs potentially harming the eurozone economy [1] - The report from ING's head of foreign exchange strategy, Chris Turner, highlights the reduction of previously held long positions on the euro by investors as a factor in the pound's rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced a short-term decline against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.3614 [1] Group 1 - The British pound has dropped by 20 points in a short time frame against the US dollar [1]