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债市日报:11月12日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 07:45
Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on November 12, with long-term bonds strengthening first, while the overall market remains in a state of fluctuation without a clear trend [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02% to 108.52, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.03% to 105.97 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally decreased slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 2.143% and the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.4 basis points to 1.8% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 2-year yield down by 3.95 basis points to 3.551% and the 10-year yield down by 5.25 basis points to 4.062% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 3-year yield up by 0.3 basis points to 1.051% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased slightly, indicating a similar trend to the U.S. market [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2271% and 1.3162%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.95 and 2.44 [4] - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4013%, 1.7128%, and 1.9291% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4, 5.08, and 2.92 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down by 9.3 basis points to 1.415% [5] Institutional Views - Institutions suggest that the bond market may experience further declines in November and December due to limited credit growth and structural opportunities in credit bonds [7] - The central bank's recent measures to regulate interest rates are expected to create more room for easing, which could positively impact the bond market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on coupon strategies and short-duration credit bonds, while also considering flexible long-end operations to enhance returns [7]