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宝城期货国债期货早报(2025年12月4日)-20251204
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] - For the main varieties of financial futures index stocks (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, short - term is shock, medium - term is shock, intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is the decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, but the market lacks a main line, so the shock trend continues. There are still expectations for future macro - policies, and the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to push down policy interest rates, but the central bank avoids rapid interest rate decline, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the short term, concerns about the dense supply of long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, year - end institutional profit - taking pressure, and decreased trading activity of treasury bonds lead to a high possibility of shock consolidation [5]