投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。从宏观基本面与政策面的角度来看，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，货币政策中长期仍偏向宽松，政策利率的锚定效应仍存，202 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that currently, the upward and downward driving forces of bond futures are both limited. The long - term monetary policy is inclined to be loose with the expectation of policy rate cuts, providing strong support. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely be steady, limiting the short - term rebound momentum, and the supply pressure of dense bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward space. So, bond futures are expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation yesterday. They are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. Long - term monetary policy is loose with rate cut expectations for support, but the central bank's cautious rate - cut rhythm and the supply pressure of bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restrict the upward space, so they are expected to be volatile in the short term [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillating consolidation" because the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". The current Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, with weak driving forces, so they will maintain an oscillating consolidation. In the short term, the futures will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | Low probability of short - term interest rate cut; long - term easing expectations [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS [5] - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "weakening", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation" [5] - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. There is pressure above and support below, and the driving force is weak. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, the monetary policy environment is expected to be loose next year, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Also, the market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, so there is strong support for Treasury bond futures. On the other hand, short - term macroeconomic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and there are few uncertainties in the internal and external environment recently, so there is a lack of upward driving force for Treasury bond futures [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1][5]. - Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillatory consolidation stage, with relatively limited upward and downward momentum. In the short term, due to the low possibility of interest rate cuts, the mitigation of market uncertainty risks, the increasing profit - taking demand of institutions near the year - end, and concerns about the long - term bond supply pressure in the first quarter of next year, treasury bond futures are showing weakness. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and in the medium and long term, the monetary policy environment is moderately loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in an oscillatory consolidation stage with limited upward and downward momentum. Short - term factors lead to weak performance, but medium - and long - term factors provide support, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] - For the main varieties of financial futures index stocks (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, short - term is shock, medium - term is shock, intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is the decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, but the market lacks a main line, so the shock trend continues. There are still expectations for future macro - policies, and the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to push down policy interest rates, but the central bank avoids rapid interest rate decline, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the short term, concerns about the dense supply of long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, year - end institutional profit - taking pressure, and decreased trading activity of treasury bonds lead to a high possibility of shock consolidation [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decrease in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the economic data shows resilience, and there is no high necessity for additional easing at the end of the year, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is to oscillate, the medium - term is to oscillate, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Last week, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in a state with limited upward and downward space. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, supporting Treasury bond futures. In the short term, economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need for additional easing at the end of the year, and the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed up. Due to the persistent lack of effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium to long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With the easing of external uncertainties, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly fluctuating and consolidating [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On October 27, the People's Bank of China conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 337.3 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 337.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net investment of 148.3 billion yuan [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors have temporarily eased, and the central bank has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy for the consumption sector, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, and the demand for buying treasury bonds in the capital market has been suppressed. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On August 14, the central bank announced that on August 15, 2025, it would conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 6 - month (182 - day) term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5] - On August 15, the central bank conducted a 238 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate through a quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured today, the net investment on the day was 116 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate, with the core logic being the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak performance of May credit and inflation data reflects insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, so the policy is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, and the support for Treasury bond futures is strong. Although there was a correction last week due to eased external risks and marginal improvement of June manufacturing PMI, the downward space is limited as market interest rates are anchored by policy rates, and Treasury bond futures will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term time period is within one week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term view is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate. The core logic is the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak May credit and inflation data show insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, so the policy will keep the monetary environment loose. Last week's correction was due to external factors and PMI improvement, but the downward space is limited, and Treasury bond futures will fluctuate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly. The weak performance of May's credit and inflation data reflects insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand. Policy-wise, it is expected that a relatively loose monetary environment will be maintained to support the economic demand side, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Last week, due to the easing of external risk factors and the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI in June, Treasury bond futures corrected. However, the downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited as market interest rates are always anchored by policy rates. In general, Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term [3] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On July 2nd, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering. The winning bid rate was 1.4%. There were 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [5]