Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decrease in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the economic data shows resilience, and there is no high necessity for additional easing at the end of the year, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is to oscillate, the medium - term is to oscillate, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Last week, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in a state with limited upward and downward space. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, supporting Treasury bond futures. In the short term, economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need for additional easing at the end of the year, and the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed up. Due to the persistent lack of effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium to long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With the easing of external uncertainties, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly fluctuating and consolidating [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On October 27, the People's Bank of China conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 337.3 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 337.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net investment of 148.3 billion yuan [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors have temporarily eased, and the central bank has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy for the consumption sector, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, and the demand for buying treasury bonds in the capital market has been suppressed. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On August 14, the central bank announced that on August 15, 2025, it would conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 6 - month (182 - day) term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5] - On August 15, the central bank conducted a 238 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate through a quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured today, the net investment on the day was 116 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate, with the core logic being the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak performance of May credit and inflation data reflects insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, so the policy is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, and the support for Treasury bond futures is strong. Although there was a correction last week due to eased external risks and marginal improvement of June manufacturing PMI, the downward space is limited as market interest rates are anchored by policy rates, and Treasury bond futures will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term time period is within one week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term view is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate. The core logic is the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak May credit and inflation data show insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, so the policy will keep the monetary environment loose. Last week's correction was due to external factors and PMI improvement, but the downward space is limited, and Treasury bond futures will fluctuate in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 货币环境偏宽松，国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均小幅反弹。由于 5 月信贷数据与通胀数据表现偏弱反 映出内需的内生性 增长动能有所不足，政策面预计未来需要继续保持偏宽 松的货币环境来托底经济需求端，因此国债期货的支撑力量较强。上周因为 外部风险因素缓和加上 6 月制造业 PMI 边际改善，国债期货有所回调，不过 国债期货下行的空间较为有限，市场利率始终受到政策利率的锚定效果。总 的来说，总短期内国债期货维持震荡整理的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight decline. Geopolitical risks have eased, and risk - aversion sentiment has subsided. The expectation of future interest rate cuts remains clear, and the downside support for Treasury bonds is relatively solid. However, the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, and the policy effect of the May interest rate cut needs to be verified. In the short term, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain in an oscillatory consolidation [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Industry News - On June 24, the central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. With 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, a net investment of 209.2 billion yuan was achieved [3]

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。近期国债供给端集中发行，加上较高的票面利率对稳健型资金 具有较强吸引力，令国债期货价格承压运行。消息面，财政部发布通知，拟第三次续发行 2025 年超 长期特 ...