Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decrease in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the economic data shows resilience, and there is no high necessity for additional easing at the end of the year, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is to oscillate, the medium - term is to oscillate, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Last week, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in a state with limited upward and downward space. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, supporting Treasury bond futures. In the short term, economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need for additional easing at the end of the year, and the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. Short - term interest rate cut expectations have cooled, but long - term policy easing expectations still support bond futures. Also, the weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short and long terms [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of oscillating with a slight upward bias and a medium - term view of oscillating. The reference view is to oscillate. The GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 5.2%, reducing the short - term need for interest rate cuts. The unchanged LPR in October also cooled short - term interest rate cut expectations. However, long - term domestic demand problems still require a loose monetary environment, and the easing expectation supports bond futures. The weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, leading to insufficient upward momentum. So, short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The main logic is that although the tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut. There is still a lack of effective domestic demand, and the expectation of policy easing provides strong support. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is "oscillate", the medium - term is "oscillate", the intraday is "oscillate weakly", and the overall view is "oscillate". The core logic is that long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillate weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillate". Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures. However, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, and the implied interest rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of a loose policy provides strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively: short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", and intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that due to the need for a relatively loose monetary environment on the demand side of the macro - economy, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. After the National Day, the central bank flexibly manages liquidity in the open market, increasing the volume of repurchase operations to keep liquidity relatively stable. Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they mainly undergo bottom - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the co - existence of medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the macro - economic demand side requires a loose monetary environment, so the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, supporting Treasury bond futures. But in the short term, the strong stock - market risk appetite suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. After the National Day, the central bank manages liquidity flexibly in the open market to keep it stable. In the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upward momentum and downward space, mainly oscillating at the bottom [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday tendency to be slightly stronger. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank has shifted to net liquidity withdrawal in recent open - market operations, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates a strong risk preference among investors, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Slightly stronger oscillation | Oscillation | The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Slightly stronger oscillation - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. The policy emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, leading to a rebound in treasury bond futures. But the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal and high stock market trading volume limit the upward momentum of treasury bonds. Short - term trading in a range is expected [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].