Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday tendency to be slightly stronger. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank has shifted to net liquidity withdrawal in recent open - market operations, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates a strong risk preference among investors, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Slightly stronger oscillation | Oscillation | The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Slightly stronger oscillation - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. The policy emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, leading to a rebound in treasury bond futures. But the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal and high stock market trading volume limit the upward momentum of treasury bonds. Short - term trading in a range is expected [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱 | 备注： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。由于 7 月政治局会议提到要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策， 未来的货币环境偏向宽松，降息预期有所回升。经过 7 月以来的连续回调，1 年期国债收益率回升至 政策利率附近，触发了政策利率的锚定效应，因此国债期货触底回升。消息面，统计局公布的 7 月制 造业 PMI 为 49.3，比上月回落 0.4 个百分点，这说明制造业景气度有所回落，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存。制造业 PMI 表现偏弱，说明未来货币宽松的预期有所上升，利好国债期货。总的来说，预 计短期内国债期货以区间震荡为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Due to the recent rapid recovery of risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the safe - haven demand for bonds has decreased. The possibility of the central bank cutting interest rates in the short term is low, so treasury bond futures are in a consolidation phase. However, under the general tone of moderately loose policies, the adjustment space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the logic of an upward trend in treasury bond futures is relatively solid, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the loose monetary policy environment and low short - term interest - rate cut possibility [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. The recovery of stock - market risk appetite reduced bond safe - haven demand. The short - term interest - rate cut possibility is low, leading to a consolidation of treasury bond futures. With a loose policy tone, the adjustment space is limited. Given weak inflation, insufficient domestic demand, and external demand affected by tariffs, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures solid. In the short term, they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。消息面，陆家嘴论坛上央行宣布了 8 项重磅政策，支持金 融高质量发展，促进金融对外开放，其中提到了发行离岸债，这意味着未 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 核心逻辑： 1.中美对话持续进展，两国元首通话，双方同意"尽快举行新一轮会谈"， 并互相发出访问邀请。国务院副总理何立峰访英其间与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议，目前继续会谈中。在当前中美关系复杂的背景下，为双边关系注入了稳 定因素，不过利多预期亦落地兑现。 2.国内方面，稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资 生态。险资长期投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的 安排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍弱 中期观点：区间波动，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3820,3960] 参考策略：IF2506 多单离场，持有卖出 MO2506-P-5800 虚值看跌期权 （2025.06.11） 金融期货和期权 3.市场风格高低切换频繁，大盘与小盘轮番占优，市场行情轮动较快，缺乏 持续上涨的主线机会。短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，关注结构性配置机会，建 议关注"板块大涨后兑现离场、板块调整后布局进场"的逆向操作思路。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡反弹 核心逻辑：上周国债期货震荡回调，不过上周五国债期货触底回升。消息面，美国政府的关税恐吓再 度升温，其不确定性将扰动市场风险偏好，避险情绪升温的情况下国债期货预计表现偏强。货币政策 基调仍为适度宽松，政策利率对市场利率的锚定效应上升，制约市场利率继续上行的空间，国债期货 下行空间有限。进入 6 月之后，外部关税风险因素升温，内部宏观经济指标边际走弱，降息预期仍 存。总的来说短期内国债期货预计震荡反弹为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡反弹 | 关税风险上升，避险情绪升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 27日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均延续震荡走势，全天窄幅整理。中长期来看，政策面适度宽松，目前的 国债价格基本没有隐含的降息预期，国债期货底部具备较强支撑。另外由于国内政策面效果需要等待 经济指标验证，当前国内实体部门的信贷需求偏弱，而海外美联储货币政策鹰派对汇率端有所抑制， 短期内国内继续降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行空间受限。总的来说，预计短期内国债期货保持震 荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 主 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。首先，从中长期角度来看，外部环境变数较大，需要稳定 的内部环境来对冲外部风险，宏观政策将逐渐加码，央行需要实施适度宽 ...