投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，具 体方面的表述是"灵活高效运 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。中长期来看，货币政策坚持适度宽松的基调，明年货币政 策环境偏宽松，目前国债到期收益率所隐含的降息预期较弱，因此国债 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the view reference is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. After continuous corrections, the current market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, and the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short - term, the current market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short - term is not strong, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures have pressure above and support below, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

Company Overview - TFI International Inc. is a leading North American provider of transportation and logistics services, operating through multiple segments to deliver comprehensive freight and supply chain solutions [5] - The company leverages a large fleet and a network of independent contractors to maintain flexibility and scale across diverse markets [5] - TFI operates a diversified business model with both asset-based and asset-light segments, generating revenue from freight transportation, dedicated logistics, and brokerage services [7] Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, TFI International reported a revenue of $8.06 billion and a net income of $323.46 million [4] - The company has a dividend yield of 1.81% [4] - TFI shares were priced at $99.17 as of December 10, 2025, reflecting a decline of about 35% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 48 percentage points [3] Investment Activity - Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel increased its position in TFI International by purchasing 93,705 shares, bringing its total holding to 912,039 shares valued at approximately $80.72 million [2][3] - The increased stake now represents 2.87% of Dixon Mitchell's assets under management (AUM) [3] - Dixon Mitchell has nearly doubled its shares in TFI since late 2024, indicating a belief in the company's potential as a buy-the-dip opportunity [9] Valuation and Growth Potential - TFI is currently trading at 26 times earnings and 12 times free cash flow (FCF), suggesting it trades at a discount to the broader market [10] - The company has an average cash return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14% over the last five years, showcasing a strong track record of profitable acquisitions [10] - TFI has been a significant performer since 2003, with sales growing by an average of 14% annually over the last decade, indicating its status as a top-tier compounder [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] - For the main varieties of financial futures index stocks (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, short - term is shock, medium - term is shock, intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is the decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, but the market lacks a main line, so the shock trend continues. There are still expectations for future macro - policies, and the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to push down policy interest rates, but the central bank avoids rapid interest rate decline, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the short term, concerns about the dense supply of long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, year - end institutional profit - taking pressure, and decreased trading activity of treasury bonds lead to a high possibility of shock consolidation [5]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decrease in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the economic data shows resilience, and there is no high necessity for additional easing at the end of the year, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is to oscillate, the medium - term is to oscillate, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Last week, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in a state with limited upward and downward space. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, supporting Treasury bond futures. In the short term, economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need for additional easing at the end of the year, and the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].