| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡反弹。由于最新的宏观经济指标有所走弱，说明需求端仍存隐忧，未 来需要偏宽松的货币信用环境，降息预期仍存，国债期货具有较强支撑。叠加近期海外美联储货币政 策预期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于央行 1 月份实施了结构性降息，加上美联储降息预期放 缓，短期内央行全面降息的可能性不高，国债期货的上行动能有所不足。不过最新的宏观经济指标有 所走 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。2025 年宏观经济表现较强韧性，近期央行启动结构性降 息政策，短期内全面降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行动能不足。不过内需有效需求不足的问题仍存， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, with the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreasing, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures being limited [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreases [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. Macro - demand has resilience, but the problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment still needs to be relatively loose. Policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation, also requiring a loose monetary and credit environment. With the Fed in an interest - rate cut cycle, there are still expectations for domestic monetary easing. However, the short - term urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is weak, and the direction of monetary policy is still mainly structural, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡反弹。消息面，央行公布 1 月 LPR 利率保持不变，符合市场预期。目 前宏观经济具有较强韧性，但是需求端仍存隐忧。政策面侧重于扶持科技创新以及促进消费内循环， 未来货币信用环境仍偏向宽松，在美联储实质性走向宽松周期的背景下，未来降息预期仍存。不过短 期内全面降息的紧迫性较弱，货币政策发力方向是结构性为主，国债期货上行动能有所不足。总的来 说，国债期货上有压力下有支撑，短期内以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation and consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - and medium - term oscillations, with a weaker intraday trend, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (including TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weaker | Oscillatory consolidation | Low short - term probability of interest rate cuts, long - term expectations of monetary easing [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weaker - **Medium - term View**: Oscillatory - **Reference View**: Oscillatory consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. The long - term monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose. The current implied expectation of interest rate cuts in the Treasury bond yield is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, they are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the view reference is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. After continuous corrections, the current market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, and the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short - term, the current market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short - term is not strong, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures have pressure above and support below, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].