货币非国家化

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稳定币面临的挑战:“去中心化”的特性和监管合规的矛盾
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 07:37
Core Insights - The total market value of stablecoins surpassed $250 billion as of June 2025, exceeding the combined transaction totals of Visa and Mastercard, positioning stablecoins as a core force in reshaping the global financial system [1] - Stablecoins are recognized as a significant financial innovation due to their payment efficiency, privacy protection, and low fees, leveraging blockchain technology to achieve market breakthroughs [1][4] - The future of stablecoins faces challenges, particularly regarding compliance scrutiny, which could erode their cost advantages [1][4] Payment Efficiency and Cost Advantages - Traditional SWIFT settlements incur approximately 5% fees and take several days, while stablecoin transactions can reduce fees to below 1% and settle within one to two hours, or even seconds [1] - The decentralized nature of stablecoins allows for peer-to-peer payments and immediate settlement, enhancing efficiency [2][4] Regulatory Challenges - Regulatory bodies in the EU, the US, and Hong Kong have introduced regulations that impose strict requirements on stablecoin issuance, circulation, and trading, including a 100% reserve requirement for issuers [4] - The decentralized characteristic of stablecoins poses challenges for regulators, as it can bypass traditional foreign exchange controls and disrupt central bank monetary policy transmission [4][5] Impact on International Monetary System - Experts suggest that stablecoins, particularly USD-pegged stablecoins, could distort monetary multipliers and policy transmission, potentially increasing volatility in US Treasury prices [5][6] - Stablecoins are unlikely to fundamentally alter the multi-polar development of the international monetary system, as they still rely on the credit of sovereign currencies [6] China's Strategy and Opportunities - China is leveraging its existing advantages in third-party payments and the digital yuan to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, while allowing private institutions to innovate in cross-border payments [6][8] - The development of a renminbi stablecoin could complement the digital yuan and expand its overseas usage, particularly by utilizing the market presence of major internet companies [8]
“奥派”死了?过气的先知还是被低估的信条
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 03:24
Core Points - The article discusses the recent publication of "Introduction to Austrian School Economics" by Steven Horwitz, which aims to provide Chinese readers with a comprehensive understanding of the Austrian School's fundamental theories [1][4] - Horwitz highlights the resurgence of the Austrian School, emphasizing its growing public presence and the revival of its principles over recent decades [1][4] - The Austrian School traces its origins back to the economic thought revolution of the 1870s, with Carl Menger as a key figure, and was once a dominant school of thought in economics [1][4][5] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The Austrian School emerged from the "marginal revolution" in the 1870s, shifting the focus from labor value theory to utility as the source of value [5] - Menger emphasized the subjectivity of economic value, asserting that value is determined by individuals' perceptions of a good's ability to satisfy their needs [5][8] Methodology - Horwitz discusses the methodology of the Austrian School, particularly the contributions of Menger and Ludwig von Mises, who distinguished between "exact laws" and "empirical generalizations" [6][9] - The Austrian School's methodology is characterized by a priori reasoning, which is seen as essential for understanding historical economic phenomena [9][18] Key Concepts - The book covers important concepts such as market processes, spontaneous order, capital, and entrepreneurship, while also addressing significant historical debates within the Austrian School, including the debates on planned economies and the Keynes-Hayek controversy [4][6][10] Business Cycle Theory - Horwitz equates the Austrian School's business cycle theory with the ideas of Mises and Hayek, explaining that inflation occurs when the money supply exceeds the demand for money, leading to economic cycles [10][12] - Mises argues that economic downturns are corrections of previous misallocations caused by artificial credit expansion, advocating for minimal government intervention during recessions [12][10] Knowledge and Information - The Austrian School posits that knowledge is decentralized and that market prices convey information that guides economic actors, contrasting with the inefficiencies of planned economies [15][18] - Horwitz critiques modern economics for applying natural science methods to social sciences, advocating for a focus on how order emerges under proper rules and institutions [18][22] Critique and Reflection - The article notes that while the Austrian School has valuable insights, it also faces criticism for its abstract notions of freedom and its perceived neglect of real-world complexities [22][26] - The author suggests that the Austrian School needs to adapt its theories to contemporary economic discussions and acknowledges the importance of critical engagement with its principles [26][27]