Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [5] Core Insights - The report discusses the dynamic measurement of the EVA balance point for banks' asset allocation between loans and bonds, emphasizing that EVA is just one of many factors influencing asset selection [1][12] - A positive correlation is expected between the change in EVA (△EVA) and the preference for bond investments over corporate loans, indicating that as △EVA rises, banks may shift their asset allocation towards bonds [2][13] - The report identifies a critical point (α) for corporate loan EVA, suggesting that when △EVA exceeds this point, banks should increase their allocation to government bonds [3][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Bank's EVA Balance Point - The report highlights the importance of considering various factors such as national policy, regulatory requirements, and comprehensive returns from asset operations when evaluating the EVA of loans versus bonds [1][12] - It proposes a methodology to dynamically assess the EVA balance point by analyzing historical asset structure changes [1][12] Section 2: Historical Trends and Future Projections - From 2019 to 2023, a clear positive correlation between △EVA and the ratio of bond investments to corporate loans was observed, although a divergence occurred in the second half of 2024 due to increased government bond supply and strong institutional demand [2][16] - The report anticipates a return to a more balanced strategy for banks, focusing on asset allocation rather than speculative trading, with projections for △EVA to stabilize between 0.80% and 1.25% [18][19] Section 3: Current EVA Values and Implications - The latest value for corporate loan EVA is reported at 0.74%, with expectations for stability in loan pricing and improving loan quality [4][19] - The report concludes that the balance point for the 10Y government bond yield is estimated to be between 1.75% and 1.80%, indicating a critical threshold for banks' asset pricing decisions [20][19]