Core Viewpoint - Company demonstrates resilient demand and continues to optimize marketing strategies, maintaining healthy loan quality and shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks [1][2] Group 1: Loan Quality and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8% [1] - The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%, indicating that loan quality is still healthy [1] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 666%, up from 617% in Q4 2024, suggesting high profitability quality [1] Group 2: Demand and Customer Acquisition - Q1 2025 saw new loan issuance of 88.9 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting resilient credit demand despite being a traditional off-peak season [2] - The company expects a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 8% in new loan issuance for 2025 [2] - The cost of customer acquisition increased to 384 RMB in Q1 2025 from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased shares worth 178 million USD out of a planned 450 million USD buyback, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year [2] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 20-30%, projecting a minimum shareholder return of approximately 10% for the year [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [2]

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient demand and stable loan quality, with a focus on shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks. The operational stability and quality are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Loan Quality and Profitability - The C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%. The loan quality is considered healthy, with a provisioning rate of approximately 4.9%, significantly higher than the long-term vintage overdue rate of 2.5-3.5%, indicating a strong profit cushion [2] Demand and Customer Acquisition Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a loan issuance of 88.9 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating resilient credit demand. The customer acquisition cost per new credit user increased to 384 RMB from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [3] Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 178 million USD under a 450 million USD buyback plan, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year. The anticipated minimum shareholder return for the year is approximately 10%, supported by a commitment to a 20-30% dividend payout ratio [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB respectively. The target prices are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [5]