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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures is oscillating strongly, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. The market sentiment of soybean meal is boosted by the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, and the domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous. The palm oil market is in a game between production growth and export sustainability, and its fundamentals are slightly better than soybean oil [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, the US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous, and the oil refinery inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of the oil refinery's picking - up rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm on prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price enters a stage of rebound, and the internal - external linkage is enhanced [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the supply of Southeast Asian palm oil increases, the competitiveness of palm oil exports affects the inventory pressure of Southeast Asian palm oil. Due to Indonesia's increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia's reduction of the export tax on crude palm oil in June, Indonesian palm oil has lost its price competitiveness compared to Malaysia. The market is in a game between production growth and the sustainability of strong exports. Currently, the fundamentals of palm oil are slightly better than soybean oil. Affected by short - term funds, the palm oil futures price fluctuates more, but has not broken through the oscillation range [7]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].