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豆类油脂早报-20250619
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market's upward trend has slowed down, but due to cost support and capital concentration, the short - term decline space is relatively limited. The palm oil market is supported by factors such as international price differentials, import costs, and strong international oil prices, showing an overall upward trend [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme weakens, the US soybean futures price enters a consolidation phase. The US soybean crushing demand is supported by bio - fuel policies, offsetting concerns about the decline in US soybean exports. The short - term upward trend of US soybean futures has slowed down, but the phased trend is still prone to rise. In the domestic market, cost support remains, and although the upward trend of the meal market has slowed, the short - term decline space is limited in the context of capital concentration [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the international soybean - palm oil price differential has widened, supporting palm oil demand. The increase in import costs has led to a stronger domestic palm oil price. The strong operation of international oil prices has also boosted the palm oil market. With the support of funds, the overall rebound trend of the oil and fat sector continues, and the short - term palm oil futures price is oscillating strongly [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250612
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250611
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market still comes from weather themes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. However, the intraday performance of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade continues to ferment, and the US soybean shows weather - market fluctuations. The domestic soybean market is continuously boosted by the US soybean futures price. As China's purchases return to the US market, the US soybean futures price is boosted. The short - term trading logic of the bean market comes from weather themes, and the structure between contracts has subtle changes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. Intraday, it follows the short - term fluctuations of the US soybean futures price and mainly runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Yesterday's Malaysian palm report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months. Although the increase was less than market expectations, it still put pressure on the palm oil market. Currently, the game between Malaysian palm oil production increase and strong exports continues. Later, attention still needs to be paid to the suppression of the Malaysian palm oil futures price by inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, and its short - term trend follows the international oil market and runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. Soybean Oil - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6] - **Core Logic**: Influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250610
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade continue to ferment, enhancing the expectation of good US soybean exports. Seasonally, US soybean futures are in a sensitive period for weather themes and tend to rise. The trading logic of the soybean market comes from the increase in import costs, but the rebound will face domestic fundamental suppression. It fluctuates with US soybean futures intraday and mainly moves in a weakly oscillating manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Attention is paid to the impact of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board report on the market. Before the report, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase for three consecutive months, pressuring the rebound of palm oil futures. The export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia continues. In China, as palm oil purchases increase, domestic supply is supplemented, and the palm oil inventory rises from a low level. The entire oil and fat sector stops falling and rebounds, and palm oil maintains a weakly bullish oscillating trend in the short term [7] Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the given text, only listed in the table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6] - **Core Logic**: Related to US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]
豆类油脂早报-20250609
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:00
Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures will follow the price of US soybean futures and continue the phased rebound trend, and the overall market is expected to be volatile and strong. The price of palm oil futures will be volatile and strong as well [6][8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations enhance the expectation of good US soybean exports. Entering the weather - sensitive period, potential extreme weather risks in US soybean - producing areas this summer make US soybean prices easy to rise and hard to fall. The trading logic of the domestic soybean meal market mainly depends on import costs, so short - term soybean meal futures prices will follow the US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on June 10. Expected moderate growth in production will push up inventory. There is export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia. In China, increased palm oil purchases will supplement supply and raise inventory. So the short - term palm oil futures prices will be volatile and strong [8]. Other Information - For soybean meal 2509, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250606
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic bean futures prices follow the fluctuations of the external market. The soybean futures prices in the US are still affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a trend of being more likely to rise than fall. The main trading logic in the short - term is the weather theme, and the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the supply - demand environment has significantly improved, which supports the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic palm oil futures prices. If the trading logic of oils returns to fundamentals, palm oil is expected to become the leading variety [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. With the continuous release of optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of good US soybean exports is increasing. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic involves Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand. The strong export of Malaysian palm oil and improved supply - demand environment support the domestic palm oil futures prices [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].
豆类油脂早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of domestic soybean futures prices follows the external market, and the upward trend has ended. The soybean futures price in the US will still be affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a pattern of being prone to rise and hard to fall. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The supply and demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally, and the demand outlook has become more optimistic. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has become a strong variety [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme in North and South America weakens, the rebound of US soybean futures prices has slowed down. The current market's main trading logic follows the weather theme, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The factors affecting it include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand [6][7] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally. The increase in Indian demand has made the market optimistic about the demand outlook for palm oil. The prices of domestic and foreign palm oil futures have rebounded jointly. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has replaced rapeseed oil as a strong variety. The factors affecting it include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][8] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The factors affecting it include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures is oscillating strongly, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. The market sentiment of soybean meal is boosted by the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, and the domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous. The palm oil market is in a game between production growth and export sustainability, and its fundamentals are slightly better than soybean oil [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, the US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous, and the oil refinery inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of the oil refinery's picking - up rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm on prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price enters a stage of rebound, and the internal - external linkage is enhanced [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the supply of Southeast Asian palm oil increases, the competitiveness of palm oil exports affects the inventory pressure of Southeast Asian palm oil. Due to Indonesia's increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia's reduction of the export tax on crude palm oil in June, Indonesian palm oil has lost its price competitiveness compared to Malaysia. The market is in a game between production growth and the sustainability of strong exports. Currently, the fundamentals of palm oil are slightly better than soybean oil. Affected by short - term funds, the palm oil futures price fluctuates more, but has not broken through the oscillation range [7]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250527
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:14
Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for May 27, 2025, covering the price trends, driving logics, and investment outlooks of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term soybean futures prices will rebound following the external market, but the upside is restricted by the supply recovery expectation; the palm oil price is affected by the soybean oil price, and its supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, with the price still in a wide - range oscillation [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The weather theme continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment. The US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation persists, and the oil mill inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. The external soybean futures price is in a rebound, and the impact of market procurement rhythm on price should be noted [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil futures price was dragged down by the neighboring soybean oil futures price yesterday. The palm oil supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the rapeseed oil de - stocking expectation continues. Palm oil and rapeseed oil perform better than soybean oil in the oil market. The impact of short - term capital inflows and outflows on price should be noted, and the palm oil futures price has not broken through the wide - range oscillation recently [7] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250523
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:33
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - **For Bean Meal 2509**: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **For Soybean Oil 2509**: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **For Palm 2509**: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].