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三个视角看外汇市场五年新变化
Core Viewpoint - The cross-border payment and settlement scale in China has significantly increased during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected total of $14 trillion in 2024, marking a 64% growth compared to 2020, and a 10.5% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of this year [3][5][6]. Group 1: Cross-Border Trade - The scale of cross-border trade has expanded, with the average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period being 8 percentage points higher than that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The total value of imports and exports in Gansu Province is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a decade, with an average annual growth rate of 13.9% since 2021 [5]. - The average annual scale of service trade imports and exports has exceeded $860 billion, representing a 26% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. Group 2: Financial Stability - As of June 2025, China's foreign financial assets exceeded $11 trillion, while foreign liabilities surpassed $7.2 trillion, resulting in a net foreign asset of $3.8 trillion, ranking third globally [7]. - The foreign exchange market has been enhanced with a dual management framework, which has effectively responded to external shocks and maintained a stable environment for cross-border payments [7]. Group 3: Service Trade Facilitation - The efficiency of cross-border fund settlement has significantly improved due to the implementation of facilitation policies, allowing companies to complete transactions much faster than before [8][9]. - The introduction of direct settlement for cross-border e-commerce transactions has streamlined processes, reducing the time required for fund settlement to one working day [10]. Group 4: Open Market Developments - The issuance of Panda bonds by foreign entities in China's interbank bond market has continued to grow, with cumulative issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan [11]. - Reforms in the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) systems have simplified approval processes and enhanced cross-border capital management [12]. - The overall scale of foreign investment in domestic securities has increased by 6% since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13].