12月30日晚，复旦大学"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第8期"暨"如何看待当前宏观金融形势系列" 第1期在 复旦大学经济学院成功举办。 华东师范大学经济与管理学院教授、上海交大现代金融研究中心特聘研究员吴信如通过长期模型对人民 币汇率水平进行了评估。 吴信如展示的数据表明，尽管人民币兑美元升值，但从一篮子货币角度看，人民币汇率指数上半年仍呈 走弱态势，其实际有效汇率相较于根据"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应"推算的均衡水平，可能低估了约24%。 吴信如认为，中国出口竞争力已不再依赖汇率贬值，产业升级和进口替代能力才是关键。他指出，通过 自身构建的竞争力指数可见，我国贸易竞争力三十年实现三次跨越式提升，近一两年新能源汽车出口强 劲，进口替代能力显著增强，汇率对贸易的影响已逐步弱化，我国已过依赖本币贬值刺激出口的阶段。 吴信如同时指出，人民币国际化是为应对现有国际货币体系潜在风险所做的必要准备，当前应着力完善 如 CIPS 等金融基础设施。他强调，判断人民币汇率强弱需参考一篮子货币及实际有效汇率，兼顾国际 收支与经济基本面，才能更全面、客观地评估其水平。 以下为吴信如发言全文： 我今天的发言主题是"人民币汇率的走势与水平评估"。 ...

Core Insights - Vietnam is adopting currency devaluation as a strategy to gain a competitive edge among Southeast Asian countries in response to U.S. President Trump's trade tariff policies [1] - The Vietnamese dong has been steadily guided to weaken, with the daily reference exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rising approximately 3.5% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 2011 [1] - Analysts predict further depreciation of the dong as the central bank maintains a weak currency stance, with a forecasted exchange rate of 27,000 VND to 1 USD by the end of 2025 [1] Currency Strategy - The State Bank of Vietnam is actively managing the exchange rate to enhance trade competitiveness in the U.S. market [1] - The dong is currently trading near historical lows reached in August, indicating ongoing pressure on the currency [1] - BMI's Asia-Pacific country risk director suggests that gradual devaluation will help Vietnam regain trade competitiveness in the U.S. market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is adopting currency devaluation as a strategy to gain a competitive advantage among Southeast Asian countries in response to U.S. President Trump's trade tariff policies [1] Group 1: Currency Devaluation Strategy - The State Bank of Vietnam has been steadily guiding the Vietnamese dong to weaken throughout the year [1] - The daily reference exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Vietnamese dong has increased by approximately 3.5% in 2025, expected to mark the largest annual increase since 2011 [1] - The current trading price of the Vietnamese dong is close to the historical low reached in August, with analysts predicting further devaluation as the central bank maintains a weak exchange rate policy [1] Group 2: Market Competitiveness - Darren Tay, the Asia-Pacific country risk head at Fitch Solutions' BMI, stated that the gradual devaluation of the Vietnamese dong will help Vietnam regain trade competitiveness in the U.S. market [1] - BMI forecasts that by the end of 2025, the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong will drop to 27,000 dong per U.S. dollar [1]