在很多人的眼里，未来几年国内贬值最快的是现金了。主要原因是，2025年10月，M2（广义货币）余额为335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%。M2是GDP的2 倍。从数据来看，现金会越来越不值钱。但实际上，现金并没有发生快速贬值的情况，反而处于较为平稳的状态。2025年1-10月全国居民消费价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%。 导致现金没有出现大幅贬值的原因有两个：一个是，央行超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向实体经济，所以商品的价格就没有出现明显的上涨。未 来国内经济大概率仍会处于通缩的周期；另一个是，现在多数居民收入增长放缓或下降，导致消费需求下降。而企业为了去库存，及时回笼资金，也不得不 降价销售。随着商品价格下降，就会导致现金的购买力大幅上升。 第二，车子贬值的速度让人吃惊 在进入到2025年之后，国内车子的贬值速度在加快。像之前20多万的中档新能源车，现在只要17-18万就可以购买。而进口高档汽车的降价幅度更是达到了 近10万元。不仅如此，二手汽车市场贬值的速度则更令人吃惊。我朋友杨亮去年5月份花了20万购买的一款新能源汽车，如今在二手汽车市场只值13万元。 未来无论是新车市场， ...

随着全球股市波动加剧，美元自9月以来持续上涨，导致非美货币尤其是部分亚洲货币普遍走弱，这令 部分亚洲央行是否会干预汇市，再度成为了全球市场上的一大焦点。 在这轮非美货币的贬值浪潮中，日韩货币颇为显眼地被"卷上了潮头"。其中，美元兑日元汇率隔夜已一 路升破了157关口，刷新了今年1月以来的新高。在高市早苗政府提出推行激进财政支出政策的背景下， 市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 日元的疲软在其与欧元走势的对比中尤为凸显——欧元兑日元在周三一路升破180大关后，周四进一步 触及181.44的高位，这是自1999年欧元诞生以来的最高纪录水平。从反映日元兑多种货币实力的名义有 效汇率的日元指数来看，日元9月底以来的跌幅已达到3%，在G10货币中跌幅最大。 随着日元兑美元汇率跌至10个月低点，日本财务大臣片山皋月周三进一步加强了对日元贬值的警告力 度。她已向日本央行行长植田和男及增长战略大臣城内实确认了监测市场走势的必要性。 "我们确认，三人将竭尽全力管理政策，以实现稳定的通胀和可持续的经济增长，我们还重申，将以高 度紧迫感监测市场动态，并与市场保持密切沟通。" 受美国对印度出口产品征收50%关税及本土股市 ...

2025.11. 18 汇 率 方面也延续走弱，欧元对日元盘中再次突破180关口。日本共同社此前报道称，这是自1999 年以来日元首次跌落180区间。报道分析，投资者对日本财政状况恶化的担忧导致日元被抛售。与此 同时，日本政府正在调整即将制定的经济措施，规模远超此前预估的17万亿日元，也加剧了日元的 卖出潮。 来源：参考消息、中新经纬 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 当地时间18日，日经225指数盘中较前一日收盘下跌超1000点。日本共同社称，受科技股权重股下 跌和对美国经济前景的担忧拖累，当天盘中日经指数一度下跌超过2%。 此前一日，日经225指数收盘下跌0.1%，盘中一度跌超1%，百货公司、运输、消费等旅游相关股 票遭投资者抛售。 本文字数：392，阅读时长大约1分钟 10月新能源新车降价幅度超11% ...

Core Insights - The rising prices and currency devaluation in Iran have led to significant public concern regarding the economic policies of the current government [2] Economic Indicators - The official macroeconomic indicators show a widening gap between government statistics and the daily experiences of the populace, indicating a crisis [2] - The price of cars has increased by 66%, while the prices of bread and other staple foods have nearly doubled [2] - Chicken prices have surged to 1.6 million rials per kilogram, highlighting the ongoing economic crisis [2] Inflation and Currency Issues - The currency has depreciated by approximately 30% to 40% in the first half of the year, with some goods experiencing price increases exceeding 60% [2] - The current inflation situation is attributed not only to currency devaluation but also to ineffective monetary, financial, and trade policies [2] Public Sentiment - The failure of inflation control policies, significant price hikes, and low government transparency have contributed to public anxiety about the economy [2]

在今年的大部分时间里，机构投资者都是比特币合法性和价格的支柱。彭博社数据显示，现货比特币 ETF整体吸引了超过250亿美元的资金流入，将其总资产推高至约1690亿美元。它们稳定的资金配置， 帮助将比特币重新塑造为一种投资组合的多元化工具——一种对冲通胀、货币贬值和政治混乱的工具。 然而，这个向来有些站不住脚的说法如今再次变得不堪一击，让市场暴露在一个更隐蔽、但同样具有破 坏性的风险之下：大户的离场观望。 10X Research的首席执行官、前Millennium Management LLC投资组合经理Markus Thielen认为，市场疲 态的迹象日益增多。他指出，在比特币今年仅录得不尽人意的10%涨幅（远逊于黄金或科技股的表现） 之后，一些专业投资者正在失去耐心。Thielen认为，如果价格再次开始下跌，风险顾问很可能会建议 机构客户在年底前减仓。 他表示："到了某个节点，风险经理可能会介入说，'你需要清仓或减仓'。比特币存在继续表现不佳的 风险，因为人们需要重新平衡他们的投资组合。当你给投资者发送报表时，你的持仓里可能需要更多的 英伟达股票，而不是比特币。" 彭博社数据显示，过去一个月，现货比特币E ...

Core Insights - The significant increase in household deposits in China, amounting to 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflects a cautious outlook among residents due to slowing economic recovery and weakened corporate profitability [2][4] - Despite a stable Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, the real purchasing power is diminishing due to excessive money supply, leading to hidden devaluation of currency [2][7] Group 1: Household Deposits and Economic Context - The total increase in RMB deposits reached 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for over half, averaging nearly 9,000 yuan per person [5] - The growth rate of M2 at 8.4% significantly outpaces the growth of disposable income, indicating that the expansion of money supply dilutes the value of currency [5][7] - The low interest rates on savings, with three-year fixed rates dropping below 2%, result in negligible or negative real returns for depositors [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market has seen a reversal, with the average price of second-hand homes in Beijing dropping from 43,000 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the year to 41,800 yuan by November [9] - Nationwide, the average price of second-hand residential properties fell by 0.34% month-on-month and 3.21% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in market activity [9] Group 3: Investment Landscape - Gold has lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset, with prices fluctuating and high transaction fees eroding potential profits for individual investors [11] - The stock market, while experiencing some gains, has become highly volatile, with many retail investors facing losses due to rapid price changes in various sectors [13] - The digital yuan, despite its growing adoption, does not provide additional value protection against inflation, serving primarily as a more convenient payment method [15][16] Group 4: Economic Resilience - The increase in household savings reflects a collective caution among families regarding future economic conditions, contributing to a soft landing for the Chinese economy [18] - This cautious behavior, while indicative of underlying economic challenges, prevents the situation from escalating into a systemic crisis, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [18]

（原标题：10月份苏丹镑继续在平行市场贬值） 10月31日，苏丹新闻网报道，平行市场的苏丹镑汇率继续下跌。美元买入价3650苏丹镑，卖出价3700苏 丹镑。商业银行汇率基本保持不变，喀土穆银行买入价2400苏丹镑，卖出价2418苏丹镑。恩图曼国民银 行买入价2500苏丹镑，卖出价2518.75苏丹镑。费萨尔银行买入价2550苏丹镑，卖出价2599.35苏丹镑。 ...

Group 1 - UK manufacturing in October experienced its strongest month in a year, primarily due to Jaguar Land Rover's recovery from a cyberattack, leading to a "one-time rebound" in production. The manufacturing PMI output index returned to growth, driven by intermediate products, reflecting supply chain improvements from Jaguar Land Rover's gradual production restart. However, domestic and international demand remains weak, with companies relying on previous order backlogs to maintain operations [1][1][1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that the current US government shutdown could have a record-breaking impact on the economy. This shutdown may last longer than the 35-day partial shutdown from 2018-2019 and is broader in scope, potentially affecting federal procurement and investment significantly, with spillover effects on the private sector. If the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized quarterly growth rate for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, with a further decline of 1.3 percentage points in Q1 2026 due to spillover effects from federal procurement and investment [1][1][1] Group 2 - HSBC Global Investment Research stated that the US dollar may bottom out in early 2026 due to anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty regarding the next chairperson. This week, dollar shorts will face new challenges as multiple Federal Reserve officials' speeches and US economic activity indicators will be market focal points. The sensitivity of the dollar may increase further [2][2][2] - Morgan Stanley MUFG strategists remain bullish on the mid-section of the Japanese government bond yield curve, believing that changes in the US economic landscape may lead to a downward repricing of the Bank of Japan's terminal rate. Despite some alleviation of fiscal issues under the new government, they remain cautious about long-term bonds, noting that Japan's top ten life insurance companies' investment plans for the second half of FY2025 suggest they are unlikely to be a stable demand source for ultra-long Japanese government bonds [2][2][2] Group 3 - The Indian rupee is nearing a record low, with recent interventions by the central bank proving limited in effectiveness. The rupee has depreciated for three consecutive days against the dollar, trading at 88.7988. Despite the Reserve Bank of India's recent unexpected sale of large amounts of dollars to stabilize the market, the rupee has failed to maintain its gains. Traders noted that the central bank has been selling dollars in smaller amounts to prevent the rupee from breaching the historical low of 88.8050 [3][3][3] - Switzerland's annual inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 0.1% in October, down from 0.2% in September. Analysts suggest that the Swiss National Bank may not be influenced by this result, as the bank expects inflation to rise in the coming months. Factors such as declining rental inflation and anticipated electricity price reductions may lead to a further drop in inflation to -0.3% by February next year. However, the Swiss National Bank has indicated that it will only consider lowering key interest rates below 0% if mid-term inflation falls below zero [4][4][4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of financial management in the current economic climate, highlighting that merely saving money is insufficient due to inflation and rising living costs [1][4] - It advocates for a structured approach to personal finance, focusing on cash flow management as the first step in financial planning [3][4] - The article outlines a three-bucket investment strategy to balance safety, growth, and opportunity in financial planning [4][7] - It stresses that financial literacy not only impacts financial status but also influences mindset and overall life satisfaction [4][8] Group 1: Financial Management - Relying solely on saving money is inadequate in today's economy, as inflation can erode savings [1] - Financial management is defined as a life planning skill rather than just investment [3] - Understanding cash flow is crucial; individuals should track income, fixed expenses, and savings potential [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A recommended allocation model is 50% for living expenses, 30% for savings/investment, 10% for personal growth, and 10% for entertainment [4] - The three-bucket investment strategy includes a safety bucket (30%), a growth bucket (50%), and an opportunity bucket (20%) [4][7] - The focus should be on stable, long-term gains rather than quick profits [4] Group 3: Mindset and Long-term Perspective - Financial management fosters a rational spending approach and a calm demeanor in the face of risks [4] - The journey of financial literacy is a long-term commitment, akin to fitness, requiring consistent effort over time [7] - The ultimate goal of financial management is to achieve personal freedom and control over one's life choices [8]

最近，全球金融市场上的"货币贬值"话题引发了广泛讨论。 事实上，许多投资者正站在一个"高位接盘"的边缘，在看似避险的背后，却可能成了市场的"韭菜"。 我们能否避免被市场热潮所迷惑，抓住真正的机会呢？ 从华尔街到小散户圈，不少人纷纷涌向黄金、白银、比特币等避险资产，仿佛这些传统的"避风港"能提 供抵御通胀和货币贬值的保障。 黄金的价格突破4300美元/盎司，比特币也逼近历史新高，这让很多投资者眼热不已。 但这个现象背后是否真如媒体所说的那样简单？ 这其中有不少值得深思的地方。 我们真的能通过盲目跟风投资这些资产来避开货币贬值的风险吗？ 但这种思维方式其实是片面的，咱们要清楚，市场真正关心的是货币供应量的"增速"，而不是其绝对总 量。 从1960年到1980年，M2的增速确实进入了一个爆发期，这也是通货膨胀最严重的时期之一。 但从1990年开始，增速明显放缓，尤其是近几年，M2的增速逐年下降，2023年甚至出现了货币增速放 缓的趋势。 尤其在疫情期间，大量的货币注入并未造成预期中的通货膨胀，反而随着经济复苏，货币增速逐渐放 缓。 因此，单纯把货币供应量的增加等同于货币贬值，实际上是在陷入"过时的叙事陷阱"。 今天 ...