尽管黄金价格飙升至4000美元，美元汇率下跌，股票创下新高，市场中关于"货币贬值交易"的讨论甚嚣尘上，但本应对通胀风 险最为敏感的美国债券市场却异常冷静，其核心的长期通胀预期指标依然稳定地锚定在美联储2%的目标附近。 "贬值交易"狂热，黄金狂飙 过去12个月内，黄金价格飙升51%，突破4000美元大关。同期，美元对一篮子主要货币的汇率则下跌超过10%。与此同时，作 为能够对冲通胀风险的资产，股票市场也屡创新高。 所谓"贬值交易"，其核心逻辑在于，投资者押注政府将通过制造通货膨胀，来"稀释"其日益庞大的债务负担。在这一预期下， 能够对冲通胀风险的股票和黄金等硬资产自然受到追捧。 分析认为，当前，黄金与美债正在讲述两个截然相反的宏大故事。黄金的逻辑是对未来货币信用的"不信任投票"：它押注美国 庞大的债务最终只能通过通胀来稀释；而美债的逻辑恰恰相反，它代表了对政策信誉的"信任票"：其稳定的长期通胀预期显 示，市场相信美联储将成功捍卫其通胀目标，或经济放缓将自然抑制物价。 从数据上看，当前美国宏观数据也充满矛盾：就业放缓为美联储的"预防性降息"提供了依据，而强劲的增长与通胀抬头迹象， 又让另一些人担心降息会为未来的通 ...

#报告 法兴银行：贵金属大涨预示货币贬值进入下一阶段。 https://t.co/jNQKtd03YsNone (@None):None ...

屈中庭繪質企'念币10人金价,未去ஆ车费系統, # 外壁牆 48.80 = 8,800 26.120 24.20 = 金花菜 2.6.26 :420 : 2022 1 800 and the 食发生就是常态势不是的【 UFF-M LESACE 3826 a $44 :00 6:4 n a love and of the completed to and the all of the completed 0 728 15 168 a 13120 Amarian == andid (2) ) ONI 2017年度 0 (69 92 888 NEW STANK ST MARK * 8.843 and 19 67.939 曾感解答案 res cars 5 2.800 car 224 258 91,137 GM 199 黄金在炒，而黄金的话题更是被专家和自媒体炒上了天。 2025 年以来黄金价格涨幅近 45%，中国央行已经连续 10 个月增持黄金。但要清楚一点，美联储降息不是黄金上涨的根本，只是波动的理由；美联储加息 时，若存在通胀预期，黄金照样涨。 OATAHAITH 排滑脚属 电商用品了 眼看看看 15.550 ...

Carter Worth of Worth Charting joining us now. It was a great call, Carter. Congrats to you.The anybody who listened to you now, what do you see. Well, first very kind. I got duds around the world, but uh so far so good.Good call. But now what. Right.Only as good as your last trade. Um gold, this is the the setup, right. Gold converging trend lines worked into that symmetrical triangle.And then of course, if you look at the next chart, we have this massive breakout uh since July. So the pattern is resolved. ...

巴西《经济价值报》9月19日消息，因投资者对美总统特朗普的经济政策缺乏信任，美元持续走 弱。Valor Data数据显示，今年以来至9月17日，巴西雷亚尔兑美元名义涨幅（未扣除通胀因素）达 16.18%，升值幅度居全球第五。根据该数据，全球33种货币中仅4种贬值，升值幅度排名前三的分别为 俄罗斯卢布（+36.6%）、匈牙利福林（+19.96%）和瑞典克朗（+18.29%），跌幅最大的则是阿根廷比 索（-30.05%）、土耳其里拉（-14.45%）和印度卢比（-2.98%）。 （原标题：今年以来巴西雷亚尔上涨16%，升值幅度居全球第五） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices and entering a bubble period driven by loose monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 22, gold has risen 35.4% year-to-date, Bitcoin is up 17.2%, and global stock markets have increased by 14.3%. High-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds have recorded returns of 8.5% and 8.3%, respectively [1] - In contrast, the US dollar index and oil prices have decreased by 9.3% and 11.4%, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America highlights that tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts create a "run-it-hot" policy environment, providing implicit "too big to fail" guarantees for the economy and stock market [1] - Despite evident bubble signs, Hartnett suggests that the market may not have peaked yet [1] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Hartnett proposes five trading strategies to navigate the current market conditions: 1. Go long on core bubble assets 2. Build a "barbell" portfolio with bubble assets on one end and cheap value stocks on the other 3. Short corporate bonds of bubble companies 4. Short US bonds 5. Go long on bond volatility and short stock volatility [1][6][11] Group 4: Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that from 1900, the average rise from market lows to peaks in 10 major bubbles was 244%, with an average peak dynamic P/E ratio of 58 times [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have risen 223% since their March 2023 lows, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 39 times, indicating potential for further upside [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs trader Paolo Schiavone notes a prevailing market sentiment that favors consumption or investment over holding cash due to perceived currency devaluation, driving funds into risk assets [3] - Fund managers are compelled to chase high-risk, high-beta investments to keep up with market benchmarks as year-end bonuses approach [3] Group 6: Global Opportunities - The ongoing weakness of the US dollar presents opportunities in international markets, with a theme of "global rebalancing" emerging in the latter half of the 2020s [9] - A notable correlation between the Japanese yen and the Japanese stock market suggests a potential bull market in Japan, as both are moving in tandem [9]

Group 1 - Vietnam is adopting a long-standing currency devaluation strategy to gain a competitive edge amid trade pressures from U.S. tariffs [1] - The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has steadily pushed for the devaluation of the Vietnamese dong, with the dollar to dong reference rate rising approximately 3.5% in 2025, marking the most significant annual increase since 2011 [1] - Vietnam's currency is nearing historical lows, and analysts expect further depreciation as the central bank maintains its devaluation policy [1] Group 2 - Vietnam is an export-driven economy, with exports accounting for about 90% of its GDP, and net exports to the U.S. representing one-fifth of its economy [1] - The World Bank has revised Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 6.8% to 6.6% due to concerns over slowing exports to the U.S. [2] - In August, Vietnam's exports grew by 14.5% year-on-year to $43.39 billion, falling short of the expected 15.5% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggests that increasing global debt pressures will lead to currency devaluation, strengthening gold and alternative currencies [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Dalio recommends investors allocate approximately 10% of their portfolios to gold for diversification [1] - He emphasizes the growing importance of alternative currencies in wealth and currency reserves [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Dalio warns that excessive government spending and rising debt in the U.S. have become "unsustainable," posing a significant risk to the country's monetary order [1] - He estimates that the U.S. government needs to sell an additional $12 trillion in bonds to cover a $2 trillion budget deficit, $1 trillion in interest payments, and $9 trillion in maturing debt [1] Group 3: Market Trends - Gold has experienced a strong upward trend, rising 40% this year, marking the most significant annual increase since 1979 [1] - The current rise in gold prices is attributed to loose monetary policies and a weakening dollar, making gold and silver preferred investment options [1]

Group 1 - Debt is a "commitment to deliver currency," influenced by psychological expectations and short-term fluctuations, making it difficult to control [1] - The quantity of money in modern economies is primarily determined by central bank monetary policy [1][2] - A debt crisis becomes inevitable when debt commitments exceed the available currency [2] Group 2 - Central banks face two distinct choices that significantly impact long-term wealth: maintaining "hard" currency or adopting "soft" currency policies [3][4] - A "hard" currency approach involves limiting money supply to hard assets, which can ensure wealth preservation but may lead to widespread defaults and deflationary recessions [5][6][7] - A "soft" currency approach allows for large-scale money printing to address crises, providing liquidity to markets but resulting in currency and debt devaluation [8][9][10] Group 3 - Historical patterns show that central banks often choose to print money and devalue currency to avoid severe market disruptions and economic downturns [11][12][13] - This approach, while temporarily effective, leads to long-term consequences such as reduced purchasing power and increased wealth inequality [18][20][30] Group 4 - The long-term effects of money printing include a decrease in the purchasing power of currency, impacting middle-class savers and low-risk investors [20][22][23] - Wealth concentration increases as asset prices rise disproportionately, benefiting the wealthy while leaving ordinary savers behind [30][32][36] Group 5 - The concept of "antibiotic resistance" applies to monetary policy, where over-reliance on money printing diminishes its effectiveness in addressing economic crises [37][39][40] - In long-term debt cycles, the ability to stimulate the economy through liquidity injections becomes limited as debt levels reach unsustainable limits [41][42][45] Group 6 - The current situation suggests a high probability of significant debt restructuring or monetization in the coming years if long-term debt issues are not addressed [49][50] - The myth of government bonds as risk-free assets may be challenged as currency devaluation impacts real wealth storage [52][53] Group 7 - Historical data indicates that during periods of currency devaluation and debt reduction, assets like gold, commodities, and equities tend to perform well [54][55] - The distinction between nominal wealth growth and real purchasing power stability is crucial, as inflation can erode the value of perceived wealth [56][57]

Core Insights - Vietnam is adopting currency devaluation as a strategy to gain a competitive edge among Southeast Asian countries in response to U.S. President Trump's trade tariff policies [1] - The Vietnamese dong has been steadily guided to weaken, with the daily reference exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rising approximately 3.5% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 2011 [1] - Analysts predict further depreciation of the dong as the central bank maintains a weak currency stance, with a forecasted exchange rate of 27,000 VND to 1 USD by the end of 2025 [1] Currency Strategy - The State Bank of Vietnam is actively managing the exchange rate to enhance trade competitiveness in the U.S. market [1] - The dong is currently trading near historical lows reached in August, indicating ongoing pressure on the currency [1] - BMI's Asia-Pacific country risk director suggests that gradual devaluation will help Vietnam regain trade competitiveness in the U.S. market [1]