Group 1 - The article highlights the unpredictability of the U.S. economic outlook, indicating a heightened risk of recession [1] - The U.S. trade policy, particularly the imposition of tariffs, has created confusion and negatively impacted market optimism and investor confidence [3] - Trust in the federal government has significantly declined among U.S. businesses and households across various sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the global implications of the U.S. trade war initiated by President Trump, suggesting it has put the global free trade system in crisis [5] - The upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" set to be implemented from April 2 will target countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. and higher tariff rates [6][7] - A significant portion of the U.S. trade deficit is with Asian countries, indicating a regional concentration in trade dynamics [8] Group 3 - The article notes that countries like India, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have higher tariff rates than the U.S., which could lead to shifts in the global economic order [9] - The previous U.S. administration's focus on "de-risking" supply chains has been replaced by a new narrative that escalates the trade war, posing risks to global economic security [9] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies has prompted global companies to consider "de-risking" from the U.S. market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Trump administration's high tariff policies and the potential risks they pose to global economic security, particularly in relation to supply chains and trade relationships with countries like China and Vietnam [1][4][5]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Trade Deficits - The Trump administration has initiated high tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and increased tariffs on Chinese products from 10% to 20% [1]. - In 2024, China is projected to have a trade deficit with the U.S. of $295.4 billion, leading the list of countries with significant trade deficits [2]. - Vietnam, as the third-largest country with a trade surplus with the U.S., is expected to see its surplus increase by 20% in 2024, reaching $123.4 billion [2]. Group 2: Responses from Affected Countries - Countries like Vietnam are diversifying their export destinations to mitigate the impact of the tariff wars, having signed various trade agreements such as CPTPP and RCEP [3]. - India has resumed negotiations for a free trade agreement with the UK and aims to finalize an agreement with the EU within the year, responding to criticisms of high tariffs [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Trade Agreements - The U.S. has created barriers to China's entry into CPTPP, with existing members needing unanimous consent for new members, complicating China's potential accession [6]. - The shifting stance of the U.S. on tariffs has raised uncertainties, as seen in the temporary suspension of additional tariffs on products meeting USMCA requirements [6][7]. - The global economic order is at a crossroads, with the U.S. high tariff policies potentially leading to significant changes in international trade dynamics [7].