Group 1 - The article highlights the unpredictability of the U.S. economic outlook, indicating a heightened risk of recession [1] - The U.S. trade policy, particularly the imposition of tariffs, has created confusion and negatively impacted market optimism and investor confidence [3] - Trust in the federal government has significantly declined among U.S. businesses and households across various sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the global implications of the U.S. trade war initiated by President Trump, suggesting it has put the global free trade system in crisis [5] - The upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" set to be implemented from April 2 will target countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. and higher tariff rates [6][7] - A significant portion of the U.S. trade deficit is with Asian countries, indicating a regional concentration in trade dynamics [8] Group 3 - The article notes that countries like India, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have higher tariff rates than the U.S., which could lead to shifts in the global economic order [9] - The previous U.S. administration's focus on "de-risking" supply chains has been replaced by a new narrative that escalates the trade war, posing risks to global economic security [9] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies has prompted global companies to consider "de-risking" from the U.S. market [10]

特朗普总统（左）在第二任期首次施政方针演讲中强调了高关税政策的合理性(3月4日、华盛顿、REUTERS） 高桥彻：拜登前政府推进了构建排除中国的供应链的"去风险化"。而大肆宣扬"贸易逆差恶性论"、使 关税战争升级的特朗普现政府对世界经济安全来说只能是风险。对于今后的供应链，各国和企业或许正 在产生应该先去除美国这一风险的想法…… 高桥彻 ： "美国梦前所未有地蓬勃发展"，美国总统特朗普在3月4日的施政方针演讲中，夸耀了重新上 台一个半月以来的成果。然而，"特朗普2.0"提出的美国梦对世界来说只是一场噩梦。使自由贸易体制 陷入危机的关税战争就是最显著的例子。 3月4日，特朗普政府对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品启动了原则上为25%的高关税，对中国产品也将 10%的额外关税提高到20%。其他国家也不例外。宣布将从4月2日起，实施对高关税国家征收同等关税 的"对等关税"。 容易成为目标的是存在巨大的对美贸易顺差且关税税率较高的国家和地区。 从2024年美国方面为贸易逆差的对象来看，中国大陆以2954亿美元排在第一，在逆差额最大的前15 个国家和地区中，亚洲占了9个。 其中新兴市场国家较多，关税税率总体较高。 世界贸易 ...