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在短端防御之外适当增配高弹性品种
Orient Securities· 2025-10-14 13:44
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to increase allocation to high-elasticity varieties while maintaining a short-duration defensive strategy in the bond market [6][11] - The credit bond market has experienced a new round of declines, with short-term bonds showing stronger stability compared to longer-term bonds, which are under pressure due to regulatory changes and market sentiment [12][11] - The report suggests focusing on medium to short-duration investments, particularly in high-grade credit bonds, as the market seeks certainty and low volatility [12][11] Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond sector, the report notes an increase in configuration value but advises caution against potential declines, especially in long-duration products [12][18] - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in September was 135 bonds totaling 141.4 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month, while the repayment scale also decreased [18][19] - The report highlights that the financing costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with rates at 2.34% and 2.57% respectively, indicating a tightening market [18][19] Group 3 - The ABS market is experiencing a slow adjustment in valuation, leading to a convergence in premiums compared to municipal investment bonds, with limited liquidity improvement expected [14][15] - The report recommends prioritizing ABS with a higher safety margin, such as those related to public housing and fee income rights, while cautioning against further exploration in the current environment [14][15] - The issuance of ABS in September reached 267.7 billion, with personal consumption loans and small loans leading the issuance volume [9][40] Group 4 - The report indicates that the secondary market for corporate perpetual bonds has seen a significant increase in yields, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with credit spreads widening [30][31] - The report notes that the yield on AA-rated 5Y corporate perpetual bonds increased by up to 21 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various sectors [30][31] - The report highlights that the credit spreads for municipal perpetual bonds remained relatively stable, while industrial bonds exhibited greater volatility [32][34]