编辑：谈瑞 莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灏 通过将全球流动性指标与各类资产价格进行拟合分析，洪灏认为，当前黄金回报已接近历史极致水平，而白银与全球流动性的相关性更为显著，二者走势基 本呈现同涨同跌的态势。"全球流动性指标通常领先全球资产价格3-6个月，而股票市场走势又会领先基本面变化3-6个月，这意味着该指标可作为预判基本 面6-12个月走势的长效参考工具。当前全球流动性持续改善，意味着白银上涨进程远未结束。" 在投资组合构建方面，洪灏建议，构建"全天候"投资组合可选取黄金、债券、股票、大宗商品、比特币等五类低相关或负相关的资产类别。即便组合中包含 高风险资产，凭借资产间的对冲属性，整体风险水平仍可有效降低。不过他也提醒，黄金与股票并非始终呈现对冲态势，二者也曾出现同涨同跌的情况。 转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月11日电（记者 魏雨田）1月10日-11日，2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会召开，莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灏在会上对2026年各类资 产走势进行展望。他表示，在新的信用体系下，黄金将成为所有资产估值的"锚"，其公允估值区间约为4300-4500美元（误差范围约200美元）。值得关注的 是，黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining is planning to spin off its international gold mining business, Zijin Gold International, for an IPO amid rising gold prices, aiming to raise up to $3 billion [2][3][4]. Group 1: IPO Details - Zijin Gold International has adjusted its fundraising target from $1 billion to $3 billion due to increasing valuations in the gold sector [2]. - The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in Hong Kong this year, potentially becoming the most significant financing operation in the gold sector in recent years [3][4]. - The funds raised will be used for global gold mine acquisitions, enhancing existing mine capacities, and expanding exploration [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Since the announcement of the spin-off, Zijin Mining's stock price has increased by over 43.5%, reaching a high of 26.35 yuan per share [4]. - The company's stock has seen a maximum increase of 121.66% this year, reflecting strong market interest in gold assets [4]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Zijin Gold International's revenue is projected to grow from $1.818 billion in 2022 to $2.990 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.2% [7]. - The average gold price for Zijin's mines reached $3,085 per ounce in the first half of the year, contributing to a 42.36% year-on-year revenue increase [7]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Despite rising revenues, Zijin Gold International faces high mining costs, projected at $1,581 per ounce in 2024, which could pressure profit margins [8]. - The company also faces operational risks from illegal mining activities and land disputes, particularly in politically unstable regions [8]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The spin-off is seen as a strategic move to enhance the valuation of Zijin's gold business independently from its other metal operations [9][12]. - The separation allows Zijin Gold International to attract long-term investments and provides flexibility for the parent company in its other business segments [12].