Global Macro - The nomination of Kevin Warsh reflects a rebalancing of monetary policy under the constraints of the Trump 2.0 policy framework, aiming to enhance the alignment of monetary policy with growth and financing cost objectives [2] - Warsh's selection is seen as an optimal compromise, meeting Trump's criteria of being communicative, favoring low interest rates, and avoiding an immediate "independence crisis" narrative [2] - The significance of Warsh's nomination lies not in an immediate change in interest rates but in altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's "toolbox weight" and "intervention boundaries," potentially triggering repricing of term premiums and volatility [2] Asset Implications - The interest rate curve is likely to steepen, with the Federal Reserve expected to tolerate higher long-term rates and risk asset volatility, leading to a scenario where short-term rates decrease while long-term rates remain stable or even rise [3] - The dollar may strengthen in the medium term, provided the narrative of independence is not compromised, despite potential interest rate cuts [3] - A systemic elevation in volatility is anticipated as the Federal Reserve gradually withdraws from micro-management, allowing asset prices to be determined more by fundamentals rather than liquidity illusions [3] Company Focus: NIO Inc. - NIO reported a positive earnings surprise for Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan, marking the first quarter of positive operating profit for the company [6] - This turning point is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and cost reduction efforts, validating the operational leverage of its business model [6] - Looking ahead to 2026, while the first half may experience fluctuations in profit due to seasonal and cost pressures, the launch of new large SUV models in the second half is expected to boost gross margins, making the new vehicle cycle a key catalyst for valuation reassessment [6]