Core Points - The U.S. federal government has officially shut down due to the Senate's rejection of bipartisan funding bills, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and halting various government services [1][3] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed government agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans, with certain departments like the military and law enforcement remaining operational [1][3][2] Government Shutdown Impact - Approximately 800,000 federal employees will face unpaid leave, and contractors will not receive timely payments, leading to closures or reduced hours for museums, national parks, and other public services [6] - The Department of State and immigration services will slow down operations, affecting the processing times for passports, green cards, and visas [6] - Low-income families will be hit hard, with food assistance programs and housing aid potentially delayed, increasing financial pressure on local governments [6] Economic Consequences - The government shutdown could result in an estimated economic loss of about $7 billion per week, with delayed federal employee salaries impacting consumer spending and increasing market volatility [7] - If the shutdown persists and intertwines with issues like the debt ceiling and fiscal deficits, it may lead to higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government [7] Capital Market Effects - The imminent government shutdown is expected to delay the release of non-farm payroll data, which could postpone the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans [9] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will halt data collection, affecting the publication of key economic indicators [9] - Investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold and silver, driving prices to record highs amid uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses significant progress in US-China negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs, which may impact A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks [3][4] - Emerging market currencies have appreciated significantly during the recent holiday, with the Chinese yuan rising approximately 1%, the South Korean won by 3%, and the New Taiwan dollar by 5%, indicating a sensitive response to tariff discussions [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has indicated that the US is willing to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a potential thaw in relations and opportunities for market recovery [3][4] Group 2 - There are reports that China may take action regarding fentanyl, a key concern for the US, which could lead to further negotiations and potential market impacts [4] - The recent developments in US-China relations may lead to a short-term boost in capital markets, as evidenced by a rebound in the US market during the holiday [4]