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2025Q4公募基金持仓分析:资源品仓位创历史新高
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-23 05:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, there were five major highlights in the holdings of public - offering funds, including the contraction of active equity scale with eased redemption pressure, the differentiation of A/H - share positions, the continuation of the "passive > active" situation, the record - high position of resource products and the record - low position of consumer services, and no subscription or redemption operations of Huijin for ETFs [6]. - The stock positions of all mainland public - offering funds declined, and from both overall and median perspectives, the stock positions of active equity - biased funds in Q4 2025 also declined [6]. - From the perspective of the fund allocation side of stocks, the shareholding scale of index and "fixed - income +" products increased. Compared with Q3 2025, in Q4 2025, the number of top - holding stocks of mainland public - offering funds increased, the market value slightly shrank, and the concentration of the top 100 top - holding stocks decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q4 Public - Offering Fund Holdings: Five Major Highlights - **Active equity scale contraction with eased redemption pressure**: In Q4 2025, the scale of active equity funds shrank, but the redemption pressure eased. The scale of active equity - biased funds was 3.9 trillion yuan, a 4% quarter - on - quarter contraction; the share was 2.65 trillion shares, a decrease of 71.6 billion shares quarter - on - quarter. The net redemption share was 125.6 billion shares, a contraction of 91.9 billion shares quarter - on - quarter [15]. - **Differentiation of A/H - share positions, reduction of Alibaba in Hong Kong stocks**: In Q4 2025, the A/H - share positions of mainland active equity - biased funds were differentiated. The A - share position slightly increased, while the Hong Kong - share position significantly declined. The active equity - biased funds held about 483.6 billion yuan of Hong Kong stocks, accounting for 23.4% of the scale of active equity - biased funds that could invest in Hong Kong stocks (a 3.9 - percentage - point quarter - on - quarter decrease). Tencent Holdings remained the largest Hong Kong - stock top - holding of mainland active equity - biased funds, with a reduction of 3.9 billion Hong Kong dollars in Q4. Alibaba and other software and hardware technology directions were under - allocated, with the largest under - allocation scale of Alibaba reaching 11.2 billion Hong Kong dollars [20]. - **Continuation of the "passive > active" situation, "fixed - income +"承接 residents' entry into the market**: In Q4 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a 9.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Index funds became an important channel for funds to enter the market, and the gap between passive and active funds widened. The scale expansion of "fixed - income +" funds might be an important carrier for the transfer of residents' deposits [22][24]. - **Record - high position of resource products and record - low position of consumer services**: In Q4 2025, active equity - biased funds significantly increased their positions in resource products and reduced their positions in TMT. The position of resource products reached 13.3%, and the under - allocation margin narrowed to a record high; the position of consumer services was 9.8%, reaching a record low [29]. - **No subscription or redemption operations of Huijin for ETFs**: As of the end of Q4 2025, Huijin's holding shares of the 12 "preferred" ETFs were the same as those in H1 and Q3, with no subscription or redemption operations during the period [32]. 3.2 Mainland Public - Offering Fund Asset Allocation - **All mainland public - offering funds**: In Q4 2025, the stock positions of mainland public - offering funds declined, and the bond positions increased. The total asset value of mainland public - offering funds was 39.48 trillion yuan, a 3.5% quarter - on - quarter increase; the net asset value was 36.35 trillion yuan, a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase. The stock position was 22.87%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [36]. - **Active equity - biased funds**: In Q4 2025, the net asset value and stock market value of active equity - biased funds declined compared with Q3, and the stock position decreased synchronously, while the A - share position slightly increased. The stock position of active equity - biased funds was 84.37%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points quarter - on - quarter; the A - share position was 72.26%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [40]. - **"Fixed - income +" funds**: In Q4 2025, the net asset value of "fixed - income +" funds increased by 9.8%, the stock market value continued to grow, and both the stock and bond positions increased slightly. The stock position was 10.04%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points quarter - on - quarter; the bond position was 86.02%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [44]. - **Median of fund positions**: From the median perspective, in Q4 2025, the stock positions of active equity - biased and "fixed - income +" funds declined, while the position of index funds remained stable. The median stock position of active equity - biased funds was 87.90%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [48]. - **Stock allocation side**: The shareholding scale of index and "fixed - income +" products increased. In Q4 2025, the stock market value of active equity - biased funds was 3.37 trillion yuan, a 5.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease; the stock market value of index funds was 4.70 trillion yuan, a 3.4% quarter - on - quarter increase; the stock market value of "fixed - income +" funds was 301.501 billion yuan, a significant 14.1% quarter - on - quarter increase [53]. 3.3 A - Share Top - Holding Stock Analysis of Mainland Public - Offering Active Equity - Biased Funds - **Overall situation**: Compared with Q3 2025, in Q4 2025, the number of top - holding stocks increased, the market value slightly shrank, and the concentration of the top 100 top - holding stocks decreased. The number of top - holding stocks was 2,429, an increase of 117 quarter - on - quarter; the market value was 1.61 trillion yuan, a 2.72% quarter - on - quarter decrease [58]. - **Sector allocation**: The over - allocation ratio of the GEM increased, and the under - allocation ratio of the main board expanded. In Q4 2025, the allocation ratios of the main board, GEM, STAR Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange were 58.5%, 24.8%, 16.5%, and 0.3% respectively [63]. - **Style allocation**: The allocation ratio of large - cap stocks continued to rise, while the positions of mid - and small - cap stocks declined. In Q4 2025, the allocation ratios of CSI 100 and CSI 300 increased by 1.35 and 1.87 percentage points quarter - on - quarter respectively, while those of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.42 and 0.40 percentage points quarter - on - quarter respectively [66]. - **Large - category allocation**: The allocation ratio of TMT declined from a high level, while the allocation ratio of resource products increased significantly. In Q4 2025, the top three allocation ratios of active equity - biased funds among large - category industries were TMT (37.8%), mid - stream manufacturing (25.7%), and resource products (13.3%) [70]. - **First - level industry allocation**: The positions of cyclical products increased, while the positions of TMT decreased significantly. The top five industries with increased positions were non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, basic chemicals, machinery and equipment, and food and beverages; the top five industries with decreased positions were electronics, media, computers, national defense and military industry, and communications [78]. - **Second - level industry allocation**: The positions of insurance and industrial metals increased significantly. After excluding the impact of stock prices, the positions of insurance, industrial metals, and auto parts increased, while consumer electronics, games, and batteries were relatively under - allocated [84]. - **Individual stocks**: Zhongji Innolight became the new top - holding stock of institutions. China Ping An, Dongshan Precision, and Baiwei Storage were significantly increased in position; Industrial Foresight, EVE Energy, and Ninebot were significantly reduced in position [88].