石油软实力的未来竞争焦点。邓正红软实力思想深刻揭示了21世纪能源竞争的本质：物质是静态的，规则是动态的；储量是过去的遗产，信任是未来的货 币。美国与委内瑞拉的交易及国际油价波动表明，未来石油市场将从"谁有油"转向"谁定规则"。委内瑞拉的命运不取决于油井，而取决于能否重建制度信 任。短期看，政权更迭无冲击，因市场已定价且供给过剩；中期看，产量提升是利空，因规则未重建；长期看，投资落地取决于信任软实力是否重建。这一 分析为理解全球能源地缘政治提供了全新视角，强调规则主导权而非资源存量的核心地位。 规则制定：美国主导的制裁与销售机制。规则制定维度强调，能源软实力的核心是规则主导权，而非资源本身。美国通过军事行动推翻委内瑞拉总统马杜罗 政权后，迅速达成原油进口协议，并宣布将销售所得存入美国控制的账户，由美国政府发放。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳•莱维特明确表示，美国将无限期掌控委 内瑞拉石油出口，并扣押违反制裁的俄罗斯油轮，威胁起诉船员。这一系列行动体现了美国试图通过制裁和规则设计重塑全球石油贸易秩序。然而，市场反 应显示，油价未因政权更迭而暴涨，反而因"规则已内化"而下跌。这表明，尽管美国通过强干预（如军事行动和制裁）试图主 ...

综合分析与未来展望。邓正红软实力理论为理解当前油价波动提供了系统框架。 油价走低是多重软实力要素共振的结果：规则重构（如乌克兰和平谈判） 削弱地缘溢价，预期管理失效（如供应过剩担忧）主导市场情绪，软硬实力协同失衡（如欧佩克战略转型）压制价值创新。未来走势取决于地缘政治进展、 制裁力度及全球经济复苏态势，凸显规则重构与心理预期在能源市场中的主导地位。 这一现象印证了邓正红关于"宇宙本质是隐性规则与显性物质的动态平 衡系统"的核心观点，揭示了能源软实力在全球化背景下的复杂作用机制。 软实力竞争进入"规则-预期"新阶段。就短期来看，油价将维持每桶58~63美元区间震荡，波动率收窄，市场进入"基本面主导、预期修正"的慢变量周期。就 中期来看，若美乌协议落地，俄罗斯原油出口路径重构，全球供应格局将进入"去地缘化"新阶段，软实力竞争焦点将转向，包括欧佩克能否主导"可控增 产"规则，中国能否构建"非美元计价+稳定采购"新体系，绿色能源价值升级是否加速削弱石油软实力的长期基础。就长期来看，石油软实力的终极形态， 是"数字精度×绿色效度"融合的新型能源治理能力，即通过智能预测、碳足迹管理、供应链透明化，实现从"资源控制"到"价 ...

【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，重构西方哲学框架，提出动态本体论、螺旋辩证法、宇宙自组织模型和全息整体宇 宙观，建立规则先于物质的软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、第四次科学革命、规则动力学、宇宙软实力公式、规则熵公式、软实力相对论公式、天体碰撞Ψ 函数、时空导数为效能核心的势能转化方程（邓正红方程）、软实力势函数、软实力常数、规则重构与爱因斯坦场方程修正、宇宙稳态无胀缩模型、宇宙动 态编程模型、黑洞时空模型、规则场模型、规则-信息-能量-物质四阶转化模型、规则熵-物质熵双变量模型、规则场-量子态协同演化模型、文明免疫系统模 型、黑洞熵量子化、规则-物质-意识三元结构模型、熵增-熵减双重逻辑、自洽-适应-创造三重辩证运动、丫类文明、丫类文明-人类文明纠缠关系、实力宜居 带、未来文明预测、预言2138、拓扑调控、跨尺度统一、微观量子退相干与宏观文明跃迁双重反馈机制、规则拓扑守恒定律、规则拓扑结构三重形态、生命 负熵维持、耗散结构、规则自组织、硅-碳双基软实力、规则设计学、规则全息验证法、规则凝聚层、规则涟漪、规则相变 、规则涌现、规则显影术、规则 共振、规则坍缩、规则降维、规则编程、规 ...

邓正红软实力表示，油市暂时缺乏足够的指引，石油软实力处于盘整阶段，市场权衡地缘政治紧张和供应过剩预期的影响， 12月24日（周三）国际油价小 幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.03元至58.35美元，跌幅0.05%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结 算价每桶跌0.14美元至62.24美元，跌幅0.22%。原油市场基本持平，交易员继续权衡今年影响油价的两大主导因素：不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势，以及普 遍预期的全球供应过剩。 盘整阶段的运行特征：一是价格震荡的本质，布伦特原油在每桶60美元中枢波动，体现"软硬实力拉锯"。二是交易行为特征，市场对地缘事件反应钝化（如 美委冲突仅引发短暂波动），而对库存数据敏感。三是时间维度特征，盘整期通常持续2-3个月，需等待新变量打破平衡。未来突破关键变量：一是规则重 构信号，美俄峰会进展、欧佩克联盟政策调整等将重塑市场预期。二是价值创新路径，若委内瑞拉建立绕过制裁的销售渠道，可能改变供应格局。三是需求 侧软实力，中美经济数据回暖将提升石油的"消费价值"。对交易策略的启示：短期是关注库存数据与地缘事件的时间差，利用"预期差"捕捉波段机 ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场权衡地缘政治紧张局势与沙特下调对亚洲主要原油价格，地缘溢价抬升，但市场供应过剩迹象仍不断显现，石油软实力运行震荡， 12月4日（周四）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶涨0.72元至59.67美元，涨幅1.22%；伦敦洲际交易 所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.59美元至63.26美元，涨幅0.94%。乌克兰谈判代表将在佛罗里达举行新一轮会谈，之前俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国支 持的旨在结束俄乌冲突的和平方案中，有一些条款令他不可接受。这意味着解除对俄罗斯石油制裁仍然不可企及，从而对油价形成支撑。 普京强调，俄罗斯与印度的能源合作未受到影响，俄罗斯一家石油公司持续扩大在印度炼油厂的运营，而俄罗斯对印度的石油供应也在顺利进行。美国总统 特朗普周三再次重申，美国将很快开始在委内瑞拉境内对贩毒集团展开地面打击。军事干预可能迫使这个南美国家的石油产量和出口下降。在全球石油市场 持续显现过剩迹象之际，沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平。沙特阿美将把明年1月旗舰级阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价设定 为较地区基准每桶升水0.60美元，为自20 ...

Core Insights - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.34% and 1.29% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with a potential drop to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [1][5] - The soft power theory proposed by Deng Zhenghong provides a unique perspective on the current fluctuations in international oil prices, emphasizing the shift from resource control to rule reconstruction and expectation management in the oil market [2][6] Oil Market Dynamics - The Russia-Ukraine conflict's resolution is reshaping the global oil market, with Russia adapting its oil exports primarily to Asia, which now accounts for over 75% of its exports [3] - If a peace agreement is reached, it may lead to the lifting of some sanctions on Russia, potentially increasing global oil supply and stabilizing prices around $55 to $60 per barrel [3] - The rebalancing of power in oil market rules is evident as Russia shifts its export strategy towards Eastern and Southern markets, which is expected to absorb over 75% of its oil exports by 2026 [3] Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken the dollar, which historically supports oil prices [4] - The market is currently focused on the dual impact of geopolitical factors and monetary policy changes on oil demand, with expectations of increased liquidity supporting a rebound in oil prices [4][6] - The interaction between monetary policy and oil market dynamics highlights the importance of soft power in shaping oil price trends [4] Sustainability of Oil Price Rebound - The sustainability of the recent rebound in oil prices is contingent on several factors, including the ability of OPEC to manage supply effectively and the demand growth from emerging markets [5] - Global oil production is projected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to rise by only 0.9 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply [5] - Morgan Stanley's price forecasts suggest that without intervention, Brent crude oil prices could fall to $30 per barrel by the end of 2027, with a trading range expected between $60 and $65 per barrel in the near term [5]

Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $59.14 per barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent crude oil at $63.38 per barrel, down 0.20% [1] - The market is facing expectations of oversupply due to increased production from OPEC and other oil-producing countries, contributing to a downward trend in oil prices [1][5] - The anticipated return of Russian oil supply to the market, if a peace agreement is reached, could exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, as Russia accounts for 12% of global oil exports [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown openness to reviewing a peace proposal that includes territorial concessions to Russia, which he previously rejected [1] - The upcoming U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies are expected to impact market expectations and the overall oil supply landscape [1][5] - The dynamics of the energy market are influenced by the geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the associated sanctions on Russia [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Short-term oil price fluctuations are expected to remain within the $60 to $65 per barrel range, driven by sanctions and production plans [2] - The long-term outlook for Russia's market share is contingent upon its ability to innovate and adjust its export structure, as it risks losing ground to OPEC [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant increase in global oil supply by 3.1 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to rise by only 0.79 million barrels per day, indicating a potential supply glut [5] Group 4: Technological and Strategic Shifts - U.S. shale oil producers are leveraging blockchain technology to enhance their market position, transitioning from resource sellers to standard setters [4] - The energy competition is evolving towards a combination of digital rules and geological reserves, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in the energy sector [4] - The shift towards clean energy and the rise of electric vehicles are expected to alter the dynamics of oil market rule-making, potentially disadvantaging traditional oil-exporting economies [4][6]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil futures prices have dropped by 14% this year, reaching approximately $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC member countries, with predictions of further price declines [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests that OPEC may significantly cut production in 2026 to avoid a price crash, with a potential policy shift only if demand collapses and prices fall below $50 per barrel [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day in the global market, unprecedented in scale, due to weak oil demand and strong supply from the US, Brazil, and Guyana [1][2] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's strategy focuses on regaining market share through increased production, but faces challenges with an expanding budget deficit, leading to cuts in economic project investments [2] - Russia's approach involves market restructuring and geopolitical leverage, such as extending fuel export bans, but has seen a 1% decline in oil exports and a 6% drop in revenue as of August [2] - The US is experiencing diminishing returns from shale oil technology, facing challenges with policy adjustment effectiveness and weak demand [2] Group 3 - The current market is at a critical point of "rule transformation," where OPEC must balance market share and price stability amid surplus pressures in early 2026 [3] - If OPEC successfully navigates the market downturn, it may reshape global energy governance through the establishment of technical standards, such as low-carbon oil certification [3] - The IEA warns that a surplus of 4 million barrels per day could trigger a price crash, necessitating a policy reversal, highlighting the importance of resource potential conversion into sustainable rule innovation [3]

Group 1: OPEC's Production Decision - OPEC members are inclined to slightly increase oil production in December, with a proposed increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with adjustments made in October and November [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply may exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter, with a potential unprecedented surplus next year [1] Group 2: Russia's Oil Export Challenges - Russia's oil exports are facing significant obstacles due to U.S. sanctions and Indian buyers' refusal, highlighting the soft power dynamics in the international energy market [4] - In August 2025, Russia's oil export volume decreased by 1%, and revenue dropped by 6%, indicating the impact of sanctions [4] - India's decision to pause purchasing Russian oil reflects a pragmatic strategy prioritizing energy security over political allegiance [4] Group 3: Soft Power Dynamics in Energy Market - The OPEC alliance's decision to increase production reflects a shift from traditional production control to becoming a technical standard setter and geopolitical coordinator, utilizing gradual production increases to reshape market expectations [3] - The current market pricing logic has shifted from traditional supply-demand dynamics to a "geopolitical-financial dual spiral," emphasizing the importance of rule restructuring and psychological expectations [3] - The energy market is undergoing a transformation where oil-producing countries are focusing on market share rather than price stabilization, indicating a strategic shift in their value innovation strategies [3] Group 4: International Energy Market Competition - The international energy market is characterized by a complex soft power competition, with multiple soft power elements undergoing systemic reorganization [5] - Despite OPEC's continuous production increases, actual production growth has lagged behind announced figures, as some member countries struggle to compensate for previous overproduction [5] - The competition in the energy sector is expected to focus on the dominance of technological standards, climate narratives, and the activation of unconventional factors [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell more than expected, which, combined with upcoming U.S.-China leadership talks, has boosted oil prices [1][2][3] Inventory Data - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, significantly surpassing the expected decline of 0.211 million barrels, prompting a reassessment of market expectations regarding oil surplus [1][3] Market Dynamics - The decline in inventory reflects potential resilience in demand, aligning with the principle that real demand drives economic growth rather than technology or capital [3] - The significant drop in inventory strengthens bullish price signals, activating market sentiment towards rising oil prices [3] U.S.-China Talks - Optimistic expectations surrounding the U.S.-China talks and the U.S.-Korea trade agreement may alleviate concerns about economic downturns due to tariffs and trade wars, which have recently suppressed commodity prices [2][4] - Improved U.S.-China trade relations could reduce global economic uncertainty, supporting stable growth in oil demand [4] Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% is expected to increase liquidity, potentially benefiting the commodity markets, including crude oil [2][4] - A weaker dollar resulting from the rate cut may make oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially stimulating demand [4] Market Outlook - Current risk appetite in the oil market has improved, with expectations for oil prices to continue fluctuating [5] - The oil price trajectory is influenced by a combination of inventory changes, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy, indicating a complex interplay of market forces [5]