邓正红软实力模型揭示，当前油价震荡的本质是石油权力体系从"供给主导"向"需求-风险双轮驱动"的范式转移。石油市场正处于全球能源软实力格局重构 的阵痛期，产油国需在资源整合、价值创新和势能积累三个维度同步突破，才能避免在规则软实力主导的能源秩序中被边缘化。当前油价波动反映了"军事- 能源-货币"三维软实力体系的再平衡过程。欧佩克联盟的增产决策暴露了传统产油国在规则软实力构建上的滞后性。石油市场正从依赖资源储量的硬实力向 掌控定价规则、技术标准和环境话语权的软实力转型。欧佩克连续增产稀释了2020-2023年减产构建的稀缺性势能，导致油价波动区间收窄至每桶10美元。 当前石油市场的软实力博弈。一是欧佩克的战略困境。机械增产策略削弱了其价值创新能力，日增产250万桶的决策受制于特朗普政府政治压力，呈现"被动 响应型"软实力缺陷。拟议的三个月分阶段增产，反映其试图通过"弹性控制"重建市场信任，但可能加剧"高产低价"的负向循环。二是供应端软实力重构。 美国页岩油产业通过数字技术如智能钻井系统实现成本优势，桶油成本降至26.94美元，形成技术主权软实力。伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复暴露了产油 国联盟内部治理软实力的脆弱性 ...

10月会议前的软实力博弈矩阵。博弈方欧佩克联盟，核心诉求是市场份额与油价平衡，软实力筹码是剩余日产能217万桶（IEA数据），风险敞口是内部配 额执行率降至83%；博弈方美国，核心诉求是中期选举前通胀控制，软实力筹码是战略储备投放能力，风险敞口是页岩油盈亏线上升；博弈方俄罗斯，核心 诉求是战争财政维持，软实力筹码是亚洲市场折扣机制，风险敞口是西方价格上限制裁。 软实力再平衡路径建议。一是差异化价值输出，欧佩克需将增产配额与炼化能力挂钩，避免重复4月以来"粗放式增产"对油价的边际效益递减；二是弹性势 能储备，建立"地缘风险对冲产能池"，在类似9·27事件时启动临时减产以放大价格杠杆；三是数字软实力建设，通过区块链技术实现产量数据实时透明化， 重建市场信任资本。 未来趋势与软实力启示范式。一是转换风险，欧佩克持续增产，可能触发"算法对抗"逻辑，传统能源安全模型让位于数字规则主导的新范式；二是动态平衡 临界点，当前油价波动区间每桶5美元反映俄罗斯基础设施韧性与欧盟制裁威慑力的软实力拉锯；三是中国方案价值，邓正红理论提出的"能源软实力矩 阵"即"技术标准+产业生态+治理规则"或为破解过剩困局提供新路径。 邓正红软实力 ...

邓正红软实力表示，本周石油软实力偏强态势表现并非单一因素推动，而是多方面因素共同作用的结果，其中俄乌局势的动态尤其牵动石油软实力运行。近 期美国总统特朗普不仅反复要求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还声称乌方可能"赢回全部领土，恢复原状"。在此背景下，乌克兰对俄罗斯能源设 施的袭击明显升级。8月俄罗斯炼厂因遇袭受影响的日产能约120万桶，占其国内总炼油产能的17%。进入9月后，俄罗斯炼厂日加工量进一步下滑至494万 桶，较8月日均水平减少15万桶。最新周度数据显示，俄罗斯炼厂开工率仍在环比下降。更值得关注的是，乌克兰的袭击范围已从炼厂扩大至油泵站、港口 等能源运输关键环节，进一步加剧了市场对能源供应的担忧。 除了俄乌局势，俄罗斯国内燃料短缺问题也引发连锁反应。受车用燃料短缺问题陆续凸显影响，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克已明确表示，将把现行汽油出口禁令及 新增的柴油转售出口禁令延长至2025年年底。尽管俄罗斯原油出口暂时平稳，但8月以来炼厂与港口频繁遇袭，已导致炼油产品发运量下降。随着俄罗斯出 口禁令向非汽油品类扩展，市场对俄罗斯燃料出口减量的预期还将持续强化。美国原油呈现去库态势，说明供需层面暂时未给油价带来强下行 ...

邓正红软实力哲学的核心命题是"规则先于物质"，其理论体系包含三个关键维度：一是隐性知识驱动硬实力转化。将军事打击（如乌克兰无人机袭击）转化 为能源市场的规则制定能力，正是"非对称软实力投射"的典型案例。俄罗斯通过限制燃料出口，将地缘冲突的硬实力转化为全球能源市场的规则影响力。二 是非物质化能力激活硬资源。石油作为战略资源的软实力价值，不仅体现在物理储量，更在于其地缘政治溢价。当前每桶原油中7~9美元的地缘风险附加价 值，本质是市场对能源权力再分配的定价。三是动态适应的活性特征。俄罗斯从被动应对制裁到主动实施出口禁令的转变，展现了能源软实力"资源势能转 化为行为效能"的核心逻辑。 结构性矛盾中的软实力博弈。北约警告引发的制裁预期（可能针对俄石油技术服务领域），暴露出能源软实力的不对称性。一是俄罗斯的负向软实力，通过 供应收缩获得市场定价权；二是欧洲的防御性软实力，战略储备释放（9月日均60万桶）与清洁能源发展、风光发电占比首超化石能源的双重困境；三是乌 克兰的代理型软实力，能源设施袭击使俄原油日加工量降至905万桶，较战前下降12%，间接提升美国页岩油出口竞争力。 石油软实力的未来演化路径。邓正红软实力金字塔模 ...

邓正红软实力表示，美国原油库存意外减少，俄罗斯考虑柴油出口禁令，市场对石油供应紧张前景的担忧加剧，石油软实力价值凸显，周三（9月24日）国 际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油11月期货结算价每桶涨1.58美元至64.99美元，涨幅2.49%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油11 月期货结算价每桶涨1.68美元至69.31美元，涨幅2.48%。美国总统特朗普对俄罗斯的强硬言论推动期货价格突破了关键技术位。特朗普表示北约国家应击落 侵犯其领空的飞机，之前还称欧洲应该停止采购俄罗斯石油，引发投资者对供应受到扰乱的担忧。在遭到乌克兰无人机对其能源基础设施的一连串袭击后， 俄罗斯正在考虑对部分公司实施柴油出口限制。美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，上周美国原油库存意外减少60.7万桶。这与路透社调查分析师预测的增 加23.5万桶形成对比。 邓正红软实力哲学将宇宙本质定义为隐性规则（软实力）与显性物质（硬实力）的动态平衡系统。在能源领域，这一理论体现为：一是规则先于物质。油价 波动本质是市场预期、地缘政治与供应能力的规则博弈，而非单纯供需关系。当前俄罗斯能源设施抗打击能力（硬实力）与欧盟制裁威慑力（软实力 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current oil price fluctuations are a dynamic balance between the resilience of Russian energy infrastructure and the deterrent effect of EU sanctions, with geopolitical premiums countering concerns of oversupply [1][3][4] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil has remained above $66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $62.64 per barrel, reflecting a slight decline of 0.06% and 0.16% respectively [1] - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a $5 range since early August, indicating a stable yet volatile market environment [1][2] - The geopolitical premium is estimated to maintain oil prices in the range of $3 to $5 per barrel due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have led to short-term supply disruptions but have not significantly undermined Russia's energy infrastructure [2][4] - The EU's upcoming sanctions are expected to target third-party oil entities, particularly affecting Indian companies, as part of efforts to limit Russian oil revenues [1][2] - The resilience of Russian oil exports remains strong, with over 60% of exports maintained despite sanctions, highlighting the effectiveness of alternative payment methods [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The overall supply situation is characterized by excess, with OPEC's increased production pushing global daily output to 105.8 million barrels [5] - Demand remains weak, with China's crude oil imports only increasing by 2.1% and EU consumption declining by 4.6% year-on-year [5] - Future scenarios suggest potential market shifts depending on the intensity of Ukrainian attacks and the response of third countries to EU sanctions [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the deep-rooted crisis in the oil market, driven by three main challenges: declining employment confidence, the restructuring of clean energy rules, and ineffective geopolitical strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points reflects concerns over a slowing economy, with the U.S. job market showing signs of weakness [1][2]. - August's non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, indicating a significant drop in consumer employment confidence to its lowest level since 2013 [2]. Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [1]. - The increase in distillate oil inventories, which exceeded market expectations, raises concerns about demand conditions and puts additional pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The article discusses a paradigm shift in the fossil energy system, suggesting that reliance on monetary policy and geopolitical maneuvering is insufficient to maintain traditional energy pricing structures [1][3]. - The rise of renewable energy, which now accounts for 42% of global power generation, is significantly impacting traditional energy values, with solar costs dropping to one-third of coal power [2][3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the oil sector are encouraged to transition from resource extraction to energy services, emphasizing collaboration between distillate oil and clean energy [3][4]. - A multi-dimensional evaluation system that includes carbon pricing, energy security, and geopolitical risks is recommended to better understand oil price fluctuations [3][4]. Group 5: Technological Innovations - The article suggests that breakthroughs in technology, such as hydrogen steelmaking, are essential for the commercialization of clean energy solutions [4]. - Companies can adopt models like Shell's "energy as a service" to integrate distributed energy sources and create closed-loop solutions [4].

Core Insights - The current oil price decline is attributed to a combination of weak demand signals and a complex interplay of financial policies and market confidence, leading to a negative feedback loop in the oil market [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points, while typically supportive of energy demand, has been overshadowed by warnings of a weakening labor market, which has further dampened market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil prices fell on September 17, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $64.05 per barrel, down 0.73%, and Brent crude at $67.95 per barrel, down 0.76% [1] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point rate cut, leading some investors to unwind hedges against larger cuts, which contributed to a stronger dollar and reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 9.285 million barrels, but a significant increase in distillate inventories by 4.046 million barrels, indicating a mixed demand outlook [2] Group 2: Soft Power Model Insights - The "soft power" model by Deng Zhenghong highlights a collapse in the oil market's composite soft power, driven by a disconnection between financial policies, industry inventories, and monetary systems [3][4] - The model identifies three nested contradictions: the counterproductive effect of policy soft power, the structural divergence in inventory levels, and the impact of a strong dollar on oil pricing dynamics [3][4] - The current state of the oil market reflects a structural imbalance, with physical supply chain factors and financial settlement dimensions both contributing to a decline in market stability and reliability [4] Group 3: Future Trends - Short-term volatility is expected as Federal Reserve policies and inventory data continue to influence market sentiment, with oil prices likely to fluctuate between $62 and $68 per barrel [5] - Mid-term prospects depend on the potential for further rate cuts and improvements in economic data, which could either accumulate soft power momentum or reinforce downward pressure [5] - Long-term transformations in energy power dynamics are anticipated, with new soft power tools such as asymmetric strikes and carbon tariffs likely to impact pricing systems [5]

邓正红软实力表示，地缘风险溢价推动石油软实力向上，每桶7~9美元溢价实为市场对能源权力再分配的定价，非对称打击与金融制裁正重塑石油市场新逻 辑。乌克兰无人机对俄罗斯石油港口的精准打击，以及七国集团关税威胁的持续发酵，正在全球能源市场引发连锁反应。这场非对称冲突已超越传统军事对 抗范畴，演变为能源软实力的深度博弈。俄罗斯被迫调整原油出口流向，将更多资源转向亚洲市场，而欧洲买家则加速推进能源多元化战略。 乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯石油港口与七国集团关税威胁，正以每桶7~9美元溢价重塑全球能源权力格局。这场非对称博弈揭示：基础设施控制权弱化、规则 制定权争夺与心理预期主导权转移，正推动石油市场从传统供需逻辑转向地缘政治定价。当能源战争从坦克对决转向算法对抗，软实力储备将成为国家竞争 力的新货币。 过去，供需关系主导油价波动，如今地缘政治风险成为更关键的变量。每桶7~9美元的溢价不仅是市场对供应中断的担忧，更是对能源权力结构变化的预 期。俄罗斯试图通过折扣原油维持市场份额，而西方则通过金融制裁削弱其议价能力。这种博弈的背后，是能源主权与市场规则的重新定义。无人机袭击事 件凸显了基础设施的脆弱性，促使各国加大对可再生能源和 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the oil price outlook, predicting that Brent crude oil may hover around $67 per barrel by 2025 due to a combination of OPEC's production increases and U.S. tariffs impacting demand [1][2][3] - The analysis emphasizes that the current fluctuations in oil prices are a reflection of the changing global energy power structure, which is more strategically significant than merely forecasting specific prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A projected oversupply of 950,000 barrels per day over the next two years is anticipated due to market share competition, with OPEC's recent decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $64.65 per barrel, indicating a stable outlook compared to previous estimates [1][2] Policy and Market Sentiment - U.S. tariff policies, particularly those affecting Indian imports of Russian oil, are expected to suppress demand growth, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market [2][4] - Economic indicators, such as a declining U.S. consumer confidence index, are raising concerns about a potential recession and its impact on oil demand [2][3] Technological and Structural Changes - Long-term oil prices will be influenced by value innovation factors, including advancements in low-carbon technologies and changes in demand structure, with global oil demand growth expected to be significantly lower than historical averages [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production is constrained by price levels, reflecting the pressures of traditional energy transformation under the value innovation dimension [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, adds complexity to the oil market, with a calculated war premium of $3.20 per barrel embedded in Brent contracts [4] - The effectiveness of OPEC's production adjustment mechanisms is diminishing, with remaining daily production capacity expected to rise to 4 million barrels by 2025, a 17% increase from 2024 [4]