编者按 9月17日，由中国基金报主办的"2025中国资本市场发展论坛暨证券行业论坛"在上海举办，中泰国际首席 经济学家李迅雷在论坛上发表主题演讲，演讲题目为《决定股市上涨的动力是什么？》。 ——BY 李迅雷金融与投资 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【 李迅雷金融与投资 】 作者/ 李迅雷金融与投资 ，本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载请联系原作者， 文章仅代表作者个人独立观 点。 作为从业30多年的中国资本市场的见证者，我谈谈对市场的看法，抛砖引玉，供大家参考。最近股 市比较火热，大家热议能涨到多少点，我肯定是不知道的，我一直在思考的问题是，上涨动力持续的 时间。 7月30日的政治局会议 谈及资本市场："增强国内资本市场吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好 势头。" 我认为有三层意思，第一，要增强资本市场的吸引力。吸引力是讲市场本身，如公司治理改善、上市 公司给股东的回报要增加、机构投资者比重要提升，等等。 李迅雷表示，本轮股市的上涨主要来源于资金拉动估值提升， 源于 利率下行 。 前期主要是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in personal investor participation [3][10][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][10]. - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [3][13]. - The average P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is around 14 times, compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 and 41 times for the Nasdaq, suggesting that A-shares are still reasonably valued [18][20]. Group 2: Growth and Earnings - The growth potential of the market is contingent on sustained corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% in the first half of 2025 [27]. - The net profit of A-share companies for the first half of 2025 reached 2.99 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [25][27]. - The market's rebound is influenced by the decline in deposit rates, which enhances valuations, but long-term bullish trends require continuous earnings growth [27]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Chinese government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market, which is expected to support a stable upward trend in the market [8][9]. - There are numerous policy tools available to support the market, and a cautious optimism is advised as the market is not expected to experience extreme fluctuations [6][42]. - The current market environment differs from previous years, with a shift from an expanding to a contracting balance sheet for households, which limits the potential for excessive market bubbles [5][43]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The A-share market is characterized by rationality, with significant differentiation in returns among actively managed equity funds, highlighting the importance of underlying asset selection [28]. - A diversified investment strategy across various markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [34][37]. - The ongoing advancements in technology, particularly in AI, present significant growth opportunities, but investors should remain cautious and avoid speculative narratives [38][39].