Workflow
资金换挡
icon
Search documents
金属周报 | 政策驱动下的资金换挡——贵金属阶段调整与铜市追捧潮
对冲研投· 2025-10-27 02:16
Core Viewpoints - The enthusiasm for copper prices has increased due to funds flowing from the precious metals market into the copper market, alongside the emphasis on technology, high-end manufacturing, and electricity in the recent national planning meeting [2][55] - Despite the rise in copper prices, it is advised to maintain a rational perspective as prices approach previous highs [2][55] Precious Metals Market - Last week, precious metals experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold down 3.3% and silver down 4.38%, while industrial metals like COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw increases of 2.4% and 3.95% respectively [5] - The market's risk appetite has improved due to optimistic macroeconomic expectations following talks between China and the U.S., leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for precious metals [8][27] - The current phase for precious metals is one of adjustment, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and Powell's statements [9][55] Copper Market Observations - COMEX copper prices have rebounded, trading above $5.1 per pound, while SHFE copper prices approached 88,000 yuan per ton [10][11] - The COMEX copper inventory has accumulated nearly 220,000 tons, with expectations of an additional 100,000 tons yet to be revealed in the U.S. market [11] - The copper concentrate TC index has decreased to -41.66 USD/dry ton, indicating cautious sentiment in the market [15] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 189,800 tons, with fluctuations expected to remain limited due to stable supply and demand dynamics [21] Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently characterized by a contango structure, with expectations of increased imports potentially reaching around 330,000 tons per month [11] - The downstream demand remains cautious, with limited new orders and a tendency to procure lower-priced non-registered brands [18][23] - The overall market consumption is expected to remain weak, with some pressure on spot prices due to the need for cash flow among holders [18][21]