Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy, as indicated by strong macroeconomic data and a robust labor market, which is influencing the silver market [3] - The recent increase in silver prices is attributed to heightened risk awareness due to global trade disruptions and energy supply issues, leading investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The current trading environment is characterized by low liquidity due to the holiday season, which is amplifying the inflow of funds into gold and silver as macro hedging tools rather than purely speculative assets [3] Group 2 - The latest silver price is reported at $71.94 per ounce, with a trading range between $70.16 and $72.70 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for silver, with key support at $70.65 and potential upward targets at $73.80 and $75.30 [4] - The market is advised to consider buying silver around $70.70, with a target of $75.00 and a stop-loss below $69.50, while monitoring the critical support level at $66.75 for potential buying interest [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in precious metals, particularly palladium, which experienced a sharp decline of 7.28% to $1,821 per ounce on December 25 [2][5] - The initial surge in precious metals was attributed to technical factors entering an overbought zone, followed by a retreat as risk control measures were implemented and speculative positions exited [2][5] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical events, particularly concerning the U.S.-Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine situations, amidst the backdrop of rapid price fluctuations [2][5] Group 2 - Recent U.S. macroeconomic data indicates strong economic resilience, with the third-quarter GDP growing by 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2][5] - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, down from expectations and previous values of 224,000, suggesting no significant pressure in the labor market [2][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen supports reassessing the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% once inflation stabilizes, advocating for reduced central bank intervention and better coordination with the Treasury [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a cautious trading atmosphere with significant divergence in major currency pairs, focusing on key economic data releases and central bank speeches [1][2]. Currency Analysis - **US Dollar Index**: Currently trading around 98.36, the index recorded its largest single-day drop since September after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut." The market sentiment has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "rate cut path," with key support at 98.29-98.52 and potential downside targets at 96.22 if this support is breached [3]. - **GBP/USD**: Trading around 1.3390, the pair shows a strong upward trend supported by the 10-day moving average and market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Key support is at 1.3360, with resistance at 1.3440, and potential volatility expected from upcoming UK GDP data [4]. - **EUR/USD**: Currently at 1.1735, the pair has shown slight recovery after a minor pullback. The market remains cautious due to diverging policies between the ECB and the Fed, with support at 1.1720-1.1730 and resistance at 1.1770-1.1780 [5]. - **USD/JPY**: Trading around 155.68, the pair is in a downtrend after failing to maintain levels above 156.00. Key support is at 155.30, with resistance at 155.90. The divergence in monetary policy continues to influence the exchange rate [6]. Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and Canadian wholesale sales data, which may impact market sentiment and currency movements [8]. Additional Market Insights - The Swiss National Bank has maintained interest rates at zero, while other geopolitical developments, such as discussions between Modi and Trump, and the U.S. House's decision on Trump's impeachment, may also influence market dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term outlook for the US dollar has significantly deteriorated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a technical shift towards a bearish trend [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since September, closing below the critical level of 98.799 [1] - The dollar index's decline is attributed to the Fed's forward guidance, which did not meet some investors' hawkish expectations, preventing the dollar from recovering most of its losses [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates an increasing probability of the dollar index testing the lower range of the daily cloud chart between 98.292 and 99.201 [1] - The 14-day momentum indicator is in negative territory, reinforcing the current bearish outlook [1] - A breach below the cloud's lower boundary could open up further downside potential for the dollar index [1] Group 3: Market Logic - The primary narrative in dollar trading has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "path towards rate cuts" [1] - The Fed has signaled an openness to further rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate differential advantage and triggers significant technical selling [1] Group 4: Future Focus - Market attention will be on whether the dollar index can find effective support at the cloud's lower boundary [1] - If this support level is breached, the dollar index may enter a deeper correction, targeting the September low of 96.224 [1] - Upcoming US economic data releases will be closely monitored to assess the Fed's rate cut pace and potential [1]

#报告 #图表 三菱日联宏观策略：市场紧盯的2026年“一个点”——12月FOMC如何为未来降息路径定调？ https://t.co/nVlnIl1tzJNone (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in monetary policy expectations between Japan and the United States, leading to a rebound in the Japanese yen after a three-day decline against the dollar [1][3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement an emergency interest rate hike, supported by recent inflation data, which has strengthened the yen [3][4]. - The Japanese corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the market's bets on an imminent rate hike by the BoJ, despite concerns over Japan's expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth [4]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which will significantly influence the short-term direction of the dollar and, consequently, the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - Following the Fed's decision, market attention will shift to the BoJ's policy meeting scheduled for December 18-19, which will be crucial for determining the next phase of the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken through a key resistance level at 155.30, signaling a potential bullish trend, with further upward movement expected if it surpasses the 157.00 mark [6][8].

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the China Gold ETF (518850) down 0.71%, the gold stock ETF (159562) down 3.28%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rates, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cuts and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious as the U.S. stock market retreated overnight, the dollar index returned to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reached a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Ahead of the significant FOMC meeting, gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility [1]

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in New York gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.71%, the Gold Stock ETF down 3.28%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rate forecasts, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cut paths and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed's December meeting, with U.S. stocks retreating overnight, the dollar returning to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reaching a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the lead-up to the significant FOMC meeting [1]

Core Viewpoints - The enthusiasm for copper prices has increased due to funds flowing from the precious metals market into the copper market, alongside the emphasis on technology, high-end manufacturing, and electricity in the recent national planning meeting [2][55] - Despite the rise in copper prices, it is advised to maintain a rational perspective as prices approach previous highs [2][55] Precious Metals Market - Last week, precious metals experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold down 3.3% and silver down 4.38%, while industrial metals like COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw increases of 2.4% and 3.95% respectively [5] - The market's risk appetite has improved due to optimistic macroeconomic expectations following talks between China and the U.S., leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for precious metals [8][27] - The current phase for precious metals is one of adjustment, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and Powell's statements [9][55] Copper Market Observations - COMEX copper prices have rebounded, trading above $5.1 per pound, while SHFE copper prices approached 88,000 yuan per ton [10][11] - The COMEX copper inventory has accumulated nearly 220,000 tons, with expectations of an additional 100,000 tons yet to be revealed in the U.S. market [11] - The copper concentrate TC index has decreased to -41.66 USD/dry ton, indicating cautious sentiment in the market [15] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 189,800 tons, with fluctuations expected to remain limited due to stable supply and demand dynamics [21] Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently characterized by a contango structure, with expectations of increased imports potentially reaching around 330,000 tons per month [11] - The downstream demand remains cautious, with limited new orders and a tendency to procure lower-priced non-registered brands [18][23] - The overall market consumption is expected to remain weak, with some pressure on spot prices due to the need for cash flow among holders [18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The structure of surface gold inventory shows that while financial demand has a small share, it exhibits significant volatility, dominating the trend changes in gold prices. Non-financial demand, despite its larger share, primarily provides support without determining the trend [1][4]. Group 1: Investor Profile and Demand Structure - The gold market participants can be categorized into two main types: financial investment participants and non-financial investment participants. The former drives the trend of gold prices, while the latter provides bottom support [5][7]. - Financial demand is characterized by high volatility, with financial instruments (such as ETFs and futures) showing more than double the volatility of net consumption (jewelry and technology gold) since 2000, although their accumulation speed is lower [7][8]. - Non-financial investment participants mainly contribute to private sector consumption demand (jewelry and technology gold) and long-term holdings (coins and bars), which tend to have limited volatility in fund flows [11][12]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - Since late August, gold prices have broken out of a consolidation pattern, with financial investment participants (particularly the ETF market) driving the new highs [13]. - Financial tools (ETFs) have seen a rebound in fund inflows, with total holdings rebounding but still 6% lower than the peak in Q4 2020 [14]. - Central bank gold purchases have slowed but remain a significant support, with Q2 purchases at 166 tons, down 33% from the previous quarter [15]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking Dimensions - Three high-frequency tracking dimensions are provided to capture the trends behind gold price movements: 1. **ETF Regional Structure**: Western markets have regained dominance in ETF inflows, reflecting a shift in macro pricing narratives from "de-dollarization" to interest rate paths [19]. 2. **COMEX Gold Futures Positions**: There is a disconnection between COMEX "fast money" positions and gold prices, with current holdings being slightly low relative to price levels [20]. 3. **Regional Price Differences**: The shift from positive to negative premiums in Shanghai gold indicates a cooling of investment in non-Western regions, while the normalization of premiums in New York and London suggests that speculative "hot money" may still be in a wait-and-see mode [21].