金价因美元走软而回升至5,000美元关口上方，与此同时，交易员等待本周晚些时候公布的关键美国数 据。早盘交易中，纽约黄金期货上涨1.4%，至每盎司5,050.80美元，美元指数则下跌0.2%，至97.41。澳 新银行的分析师表示："投资者重申了他们对该贵金属的长期看涨观点。"该研究公司称，尽管近期出现 抛售，但大型机构投资者仍看好黄金，中国央行也印证了这一观点，该行在1月份已是连续第15个月增 持黄金。交易员目前在等待美国非农就业数据和消费者价格指数(CPI)数据，以寻找有关降息路径的更 多线索。与此同时，银价上涨6%，至每盎司81.55美元。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

周三亚洲外汇交易时段，日元兑美元收复部分跌幅，汇率逼近前一日创下的近三个月新高。 这一轮走势核心是日美央行货币政策前景分化，日本国内财政与政治不确定性却限制日元升值动力，叠加美元阶段性反弹，美元兑日元短期走势变数丛生， 外汇市场对日元多空判断陷入胶着。 日本央行12月货币政策会议纪要，是日元汇率修复的关键推手。纪要显示，央行委员一致认为需继续加息，延续2025年以来的货币政策正常化节奏。此前日 本央行已在2025年两次加息，将政策利率推至0.75%的1995年以来新高。 此次纪要进一步明确紧缩方向，委员们对日本工资-物价良性循环信心提升，认为这为减少货币宽松提供了支撑，也让市场对后续加息有了清晰预期。 作为核心货币对，美元兑日元走势受美元表现直接影响，此次美联储利率决议及会后鲍威尔讲话，将成为美元走势的关键指引——其关于降息路径的表述， 会直接影响市场对美元的需求，进而左右货币对短期走向。 美元反弹同样面临阻力：市场对美联储独立性的担忧，以及美国贸易、地缘政治决策带来的经济政策风险，均限制美元上行空间，也让其对美元兑日元的支 撑力度存疑。 技术面来看，美元兑日元短期承压特征明显。货币对持续在100日简单移动平 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy, as indicated by strong macroeconomic data and a robust labor market, which is influencing the silver market [3] - The recent increase in silver prices is attributed to heightened risk awareness due to global trade disruptions and energy supply issues, leading investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The current trading environment is characterized by low liquidity due to the holiday season, which is amplifying the inflow of funds into gold and silver as macro hedging tools rather than purely speculative assets [3] Group 2 - The latest silver price is reported at $71.94 per ounce, with a trading range between $70.16 and $72.70 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for silver, with key support at $70.65 and potential upward targets at $73.80 and $75.30 [4] - The market is advised to consider buying silver around $70.70, with a target of $75.00 and a stop-loss below $69.50, while monitoring the critical support level at $66.75 for potential buying interest [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in precious metals, particularly palladium, which experienced a sharp decline of 7.28% to $1,821 per ounce on December 25 [2][5] - The initial surge in precious metals was attributed to technical factors entering an overbought zone, followed by a retreat as risk control measures were implemented and speculative positions exited [2][5] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical events, particularly concerning the U.S.-Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine situations, amidst the backdrop of rapid price fluctuations [2][5] Group 2 - Recent U.S. macroeconomic data indicates strong economic resilience, with the third-quarter GDP growing by 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2][5] - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, down from expectations and previous values of 224,000, suggesting no significant pressure in the labor market [2][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen supports reassessing the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% once inflation stabilizes, advocating for reduced central bank intervention and better coordination with the Treasury [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a cautious trading atmosphere with significant divergence in major currency pairs, focusing on key economic data releases and central bank speeches [1][2]. Currency Analysis - **US Dollar Index**: Currently trading around 98.36, the index recorded its largest single-day drop since September after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut." The market sentiment has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "rate cut path," with key support at 98.29-98.52 and potential downside targets at 96.22 if this support is breached [3]. - **GBP/USD**: Trading around 1.3390, the pair shows a strong upward trend supported by the 10-day moving average and market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Key support is at 1.3360, with resistance at 1.3440, and potential volatility expected from upcoming UK GDP data [4]. - **EUR/USD**: Currently at 1.1735, the pair has shown slight recovery after a minor pullback. The market remains cautious due to diverging policies between the ECB and the Fed, with support at 1.1720-1.1730 and resistance at 1.1770-1.1780 [5]. - **USD/JPY**: Trading around 155.68, the pair is in a downtrend after failing to maintain levels above 156.00. Key support is at 155.30, with resistance at 155.90. The divergence in monetary policy continues to influence the exchange rate [6]. Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and Canadian wholesale sales data, which may impact market sentiment and currency movements [8]. Additional Market Insights - The Swiss National Bank has maintained interest rates at zero, while other geopolitical developments, such as discussions between Modi and Trump, and the U.S. House's decision on Trump's impeachment, may also influence market dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term outlook for the US dollar has significantly deteriorated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a technical shift towards a bearish trend [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since September, closing below the critical level of 98.799 [1] - The dollar index's decline is attributed to the Fed's forward guidance, which did not meet some investors' hawkish expectations, preventing the dollar from recovering most of its losses [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates an increasing probability of the dollar index testing the lower range of the daily cloud chart between 98.292 and 99.201 [1] - The 14-day momentum indicator is in negative territory, reinforcing the current bearish outlook [1] - A breach below the cloud's lower boundary could open up further downside potential for the dollar index [1] Group 3: Market Logic - The primary narrative in dollar trading has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "path towards rate cuts" [1] - The Fed has signaled an openness to further rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate differential advantage and triggers significant technical selling [1] Group 4: Future Focus - Market attention will be on whether the dollar index can find effective support at the cloud's lower boundary [1] - If this support level is breached, the dollar index may enter a deeper correction, targeting the September low of 96.224 [1] - Upcoming US economic data releases will be closely monitored to assess the Fed's rate cut pace and potential [1]

#报告 #图表 三菱日联宏观策略：市场紧盯的2026年“一个点”——12月FOMC如何为未来降息路径定调？ https://t.co/nVlnIl1tzJNone (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in monetary policy expectations between Japan and the United States, leading to a rebound in the Japanese yen after a three-day decline against the dollar [1][3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement an emergency interest rate hike, supported by recent inflation data, which has strengthened the yen [3][4]. - The Japanese corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the market's bets on an imminent rate hike by the BoJ, despite concerns over Japan's expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth [4]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which will significantly influence the short-term direction of the dollar and, consequently, the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - Following the Fed's decision, market attention will shift to the BoJ's policy meeting scheduled for December 18-19, which will be crucial for determining the next phase of the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken through a key resistance level at 155.30, signaling a potential bullish trend, with further upward movement expected if it surpasses the 157.00 mark [6][8].

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the China Gold ETF (518850) down 0.71%, the gold stock ETF (159562) down 3.28%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rates, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cuts and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious as the U.S. stock market retreated overnight, the dollar index returned to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reached a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Ahead of the significant FOMC meeting, gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility [1]

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in New York gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.71%, the Gold Stock ETF down 3.28%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rate forecasts, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cut paths and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed's December meeting, with U.S. stocks retreating overnight, the dollar returning to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reaching a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the lead-up to the significant FOMC meeting [1]