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债市专题研究:如何看待转债市场阶段性回落?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 14:08
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent correction in the convertible bond market is more due to the rush of funds after the trading volume increased, but the core driving force for the market to rise under the expectation of loose liquidity and economic recovery has not changed after the adjustment, and the expected return under the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds is still promising [1] - The strong performance of equity assets has led to the expansion of the scale of hybrid bond funds, and there is a phased profit - taking in the convertible bond market after reaching a new high [11][16] Summary by Directory 1. The Strong Performance of Equity Assets Drives the Expansion of Hybrid Bond Fund Scale - Since 2025, equity - related assets have significantly outperformed fixed - income assets. As of September 2, 2025, the Wind All - Fund Index, the common stock fund index, the partial - stock hybrid fund index, the flexible allocation fund index, the balanced hybrid fund index, and the convertible bond fund have recorded annual returns of 14.54%, 29.98%, 30.00%, 22.33%, 13.30%, and 17.49% respectively, far outperforming bond funds. The performance of equity funds in Q3 2025 is particularly prominent [2] - Due to the slowdown in new convertible bond issuance and the maturity of existing convertible bonds, the market's outstanding balance has been shrinking. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2025, it decreased from 79.5012 billion to 66.4474 billion, a decline of 16.42%. Against this backdrop, the scale of convertible bonds held by public funds has remained stable, and the proportion of holdings has increased significantly, from 34.2% to 41.1% [13] - As of the latest disclosed semi - annual reports of public funds, the scale of convertible bonds held by first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, and convertible bond ETFs is 7.2656 billion, 8.5867 billion, 4.2658 billion, and 4.2575 billion respectively, with a scale increase of 9.3%, 8.7%, 5.3%, and 1.5% month - on - month, and a share increase of 8.0%, 3.4%, 8.4%, and 4.1% year - on - year. The overall demand in the convertible bond market remains stable [15] 2. There is Phased Profit - Taking in the Convertible Bond Market after Reaching a New High - The continuous entry of incremental funds may be the core factor driving the convertible bond index to reach a new high, and the rush of funds after the trading volume increased may be the main reason for the recent phased adjustment of the market. After the convertible bond index reached new highs for several consecutive weeks in August, the daily average trading volume remained above 50 million lots for a long time, reaching a recent high of 65.71 million lots on August 28. Subsequently, the market turned volatile, and the trading enthusiasm declined significantly [3] - The net outflow of convertible bond ETFs is obvious. As of September 1, 2025, the scale of convertible bond ETFs increased from 3.99 billion at the beginning of June to 7.36 billion, a growth of 84.1%. Since September 1, the redemption of passive funds has been obvious, with the single - day redemption scale reaching a recent peak of 1.052 billion [3] - In the future, although the willingness of funds to realize profits is strong after this round of rise, after the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has dropped significantly, and the premium rate has been significantly reduced. The convertible bond market is expected to enter a volatile phase in the short term after the phased adjustment. In the medium term, the core driving force for the market to rise under the expectation of loose liquidity and economic recovery has not changed, and the expected return under the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds is still promising [4][25]