证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250817 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250811-20250815）》 2025-08-16 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250811- 20250815）》 如何缓解当前转债配置踏空焦虑？ 2025 年 08 月 17 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2025-08-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0811－0815）海外方面俄乌冲突再度迎来转机，同时市场聚焦下 周杰克逊霍尔央行年会上鲍威尔潜在的鹰派发言，美债长端仍维持 4.0 －4.5%宽幅震荡格局，期限利差边际收窄，符合前期我们对短久期资产 的青睐，美股估值目前仍处在历史高分位数水平，CAPE 目前处于历史 第二高位，仅次于 2000 年互联网泡沫峰值。我们认为在 25 年剩余时间 联储重启降息 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has achieved significant growth, with a total scale exceeding 1119.35 billion yuan, representing an increase of 286.15% since its launch [1][2] - Eight out of the ten initial Sci-Tech Bond ETFs have surpassed the 10 billion yuan mark, with the largest being the Jiashi Sci-Tech Bond ETF at 16 billion yuan [1] - The market is preparing for a second batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, with multiple fund companies actively working on their applications, indicating strong competition and demand [3] Group 2 - The launch of the first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has reshaped the bond ETF market landscape, expanding the total number of bond ETFs to 39, including various types such as credit bond ETFs and convertible bond ETFs [2] - There remains a gap in the market for comprehensive bond, green bond, and central enterprise theme ETFs, suggesting potential areas for future development [2] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is expected to maintain similar tracking indices as the first batch, focusing on AAA-rated technology innovation company bonds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. Investors share the returns of the equity market by betting on passive tools. Driven by the equity market and the inflow of fixed - income funds, the convertible bond index has reached a new high. At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. Potential opportunities can be explored from three aspects: "anti - involution", underlying stock elasticity, and dividend allocation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 转债周度思考 - In the past week, after adjustments, both the equity market and the convertible bond market rose again, and the convertible bond index reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3600 points, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73% in the past week, and the underlying stock equal - weighted index of convertible bonds rose 3.00%. The median price of convertible bonds has exceeded 130 yuan, and the valuations of equity - like and balanced convertible bonds continue to expand [2]. - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. The share of two convertible bond ETFs has rapidly increased, with a 27% month - on - month increase compared to the end of June, and the scale has exceeded 5.72 billion yuan. Considering that some active funds are also making index - based layouts, the scale of index - based investment tools is expected to exceed 6.5 billion yuan. The holders of ETFs are mainly absolute - return funds such as banks and insurance companies, which invest in convertible bond ETFs to share the equity market's upward trend since late June and enhance returns by increasing positions in convertible bond indices [2]. - At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. Although the equity market is generally expected to be in a slow - bull state with a relatively low possibility of a large - scale pullback, the high point of the equity market within the year is unclear. After this round of increase, the price center of convertible bonds has generally risen, and the median has exceeded 130 yuan. With the continuous inflow of funds, the valuation has also been stretched. For some individual bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan price range that have risen with the market, the current median conversion premium rate is 40%, and the investment cost - effectiveness is average. Under the condition that the fundamentals of individual bonds cannot change significantly in the short term and the call - at - par - value - at - 130 clause is in place, the anti - decline and protective properties of these convertible bonds with a higher price center and premium rate have weakened significantly [2]. - After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. The state of convertible bonds in a relatively mild stock - bond market remains unchanged, and there are still opportunities for convertible bonds to perform. Since July, the number of callable convertible bonds has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction of convertible bonds still exists, which supports the valuation and performance of convertible bonds. Absolute - return funds can take partial profits or adjust the structure while keeping the overall position unchanged. It is recommended to explore opportunities along three lines: (1) Pay attention to industries where some backward production capacities are being cleared as "anti - involution" progresses in various industries; (2) Focus on equity - like and balanced convertible bonds with high - volatility and low - premium underlying stocks. Industries such as electronics and semiconductors are expected to experience marginal recovery due to tariff easing, and innovative drug convertible bond targets are scarce; (3) The allocation value of dividend assets remains high, and low - volatility bottom - position convertible bonds are worth attention [2]. 3.2 2 可转债市场跟踪 3.2.1 2.1 可转债行情方面 - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, since July, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 2.60% in the past week, 6.81% since July, and 21.79% in the past year [12]. 3.2.2 2.2 转债个券方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.3 2.3 转债估值方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.4 2.4 转债价格方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to grow, and the inflow of funds was expected to continue due to the bond market under - allocation and the upward movement of equities. Convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds still had strong support [4][6]. - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions on the whole. The behavior of brokers was different from that of public funds and insurance funds, with brokers more likely to increase positions in a bull market and the latter reducing positions when the convertible bond valuation was high [10][12]. - Public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds and sought bottom - position substitutes. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Growth of Fixed - Income Plus Fund Shares with Market Support - In Q2 2025, fixed - income plus funds had a net subscription of 56.41 billion shares. Among them, first - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 52.548 billion shares, second - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 7.774 billion shares, and partial - debt hybrid funds had a net redemption of 3.68 billion shares, with the net redemption volume further decreasing compared to Q1 2025. Convertible bond funds had a net redemption of 2.164 billion shares, slightly higher than that in Q1 2025 but with relatively low net redemption pressure compared to Q4 2024 [4][6]. - In Q2 2025, the positions of convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds in equity - related assets decreased slightly. The reasons might include the tariff event in early April, profit - taking in May and June, and the reduction in the scope of investable targets in the convertible bond market [8]. 3.2. Public Funds and Insurance Funds Reduce Positions Marginally, while Brokers Increase Positions in Convertible Bonds - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds in February, March, May, and June 2025, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions when the convertible bond valuation was high. With the convertible bond market hitting a new high and the equity market at a relatively high level, there was a need to be cautious about possible valuation drops [10][12]. - From January to June 2025, the positions of funds, insurance, and social security in convertible bonds decreased, while those of brokers' self - operation and asset management increased. The positions of convertible bond ETFs had net outflows in April and May and recovered significantly after late June [12][13][15]. 3.3. Analysis of Public Fund Holdings - In terms of industry distribution, public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds in Q2 2025 due to the forced redemption of Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, and the approaching maturity of Pufa Convertible Bond. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. - Public funds increased their positions in some high - elasticity varieties such as those in the electronics, computer, communication, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors, which might benefit from the structural market of technology, medicine, and consumption sectors. The positions in convertible bonds of the basic chemical and building materials industries also increased [21]. - In addition to financial bottom - position convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds, public funds increased their positions in high - prosperity and high - elasticity targets such as Outong Convertible Bond, Wentai Convertible Bond, Shenma Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond [26].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market continues to see rising valuations, with prices reaching new highs, supported by strong demand in the fixed income market and low positions in convertible bonds [5][8][19] - The absolute price median of convertible bonds has reached 128 yuan, indicating a significant increase in valuation levels [8][19] - The market sentiment is bolstered by various events, including the commencement of construction on the Yashan Hydropower Station and the AI conference, which have strengthened bullish expectations [8][11] Group 2 - From July 21 to July 25, the equity market experienced a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.67% [11] - The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [11] - The trading volume of convertible bonds reached 80.674 billion yuan, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 2.14% [19][29] Group 3 - The report suggests that the systemic risk for convertible bonds remains low, with a strong expectation for performance until September [5][8] - The report recommends focusing on low-priced and equity-oriented individual bonds, as the difficulty in selecting bonds increases under the current price structure [5][19] - The report highlights that high-priced and mid-high rated convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and large-cap bonds showed relative weakness [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent surge in the convertible bond market is driven by three main factors: strong performance in the equity market, historically low bond yields, and tight supply due to refinancing regulations [1] - The convertible bond market can be viewed as a combination of ordinary bonds and stock call options, providing investors with both fixed income and potential capital appreciation [1][2] - The current support for the convertible bond market is heavily reliant on the equity market's performance, suggesting that if the equity market continues to perform well, convertible bonds may also exhibit upward momentum [1][2] Group 2 - Investors are cautioned against the misconception that high-priced convertible bonds always have downside protection, as their price movements may closely follow the underlying stocks [2] - For high-risk investors, low premium, high elasticity convertible bonds are recommended to construct a balanced investment portfolio aimed at capturing excess returns [2] - The index for convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds is based on a large sample size from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, using a market capitalization-weighted method to balance index volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The quantitative investment industry is experiencing significant expansion and competition, with a focus on maintaining stable excess returns amidst increasing market interest [1][8]. Group 1: Company Insights - Youmeili Investment has entered the multi-asset quantitative field early and achieved notable success in the convertible bond sector [2]. - The chairman emphasizes that "slowly becoming rich" is the true wealth strategy, with a focus on stable long-term excess returns as the core logic for success [3][4]. - The company prioritizes low and medium volatility strategies, avoiding trends and focusing on customer experience and absolute returns [3][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches are seen as more scientific investment methods, allowing for better risk management and stable returns [5][21]. - Over the long term, various asset classes like stocks, bonds, and real estate have stable annualized returns, with convertible bonds showing an annualized return of approximately 6% over the past decade, outperforming other equity assets [7][24]. - The company manages nearly 5 billion yuan, with over 2 billion yuan allocated to convertible bonds, which account for more than 50% of its total management scale [26]. Group 3: Market Trends - The quantitative investment sector is still in a favorable cycle, with expectations of entering a "big asset management" era where leading institutions adopt multi-strategy and multi-asset approaches [8][33]. - The chairman notes that the current market environment favors convertible bonds due to their stability and potential for higher returns compared to stocks, especially small-cap stocks [25][27]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company employs strict risk control measures, ensuring that low and medium volatility products are matched with suitable assets or strategies, and utilizes quantitative models for optimal asset selection [23][31]. - The dynamic adjustment of asset proportions is based on the cyclical nature of different assets, aiming for stable long-term returns while managing volatility [20][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is exploring the integration of AI and quantitative strategies to enhance efficiency and model performance, with a focus on maintaining a strong market presence through stable products [34][35]. - The vision is to grow wealth steadily alongside investors, emphasizing the importance of patience and disciplined execution in investment strategies [41][40].