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股指期货:盘?具有韧性股指期权:短期博弈扰动,中期备兑应对
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 08:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The stock market shows resilience, and the bond market sentiment has improved. For stock index futures, the market is resilient, and it is recommended to maintain an active allocation before the National Day with a preference for the growth sector and continue to hold IM long positions. For stock index options, there are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has improved, and short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and curve steepening opportunities [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The market is resilient. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts, the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts, and the total positions have changed. Yesterday, the market recovered in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks, and the trading volume was 2.3 trillion with a recent shrinking trend. Before the National Day, an active allocation is maintained, and the style is biased towards growth. The financial data in August shows that the transfer of household deposits is accelerating, the M1M2 gap is rising, and consumption and inflation are difficult to increase, which promotes policy expectations and funds flowing into the technology sector. It is recommended to hold IM [3][9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: There are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. Yesterday, the option market turnover was 1.0278 billion yuan, a 15.46% increase from the previous trading day. It is speculated that call option gaming is dominant due to large inter - variety differentiation and an increase in the average implied volatility. The put option trading volume increased, and the overall bullish sentiment decreased. A covered strategy is recommended because the large delta exposure of sellers implies a low probability of a rapid short - term pullback, and there is potential for a short - volatility strategy [4][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has improved. The trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. Yesterday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the tightening of inter - bank funds and the results of the Sino - US Madrid talks were negative for the bond market. However, the expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading operations has boosted the bullish sentiment. In the short term, the central bank will support the short - end, and the long - end yield is affected by risk preference and policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, long - end arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening opportunities [5][10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data of different regions this week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added value year - on - year rate, the eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US August retail sales month - on - month rate, etc. Some data have been released, and some are yet to be announced [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **China Macro**: On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, including promoting consumption activities, cross - border cooperation, extending business hours of cultural and tourist venues, and optimizing student vacation arrangements [14]. - **US Macro**: The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan's appointment has been confirmed and can attend the September FOMC meeting [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Specific data on basis, spreads, and positions are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [9]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The turnover and implied volatility changes are mentioned, but detailed data is not repeated here [4][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of different contracts are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [10].