1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In February, affected by multiple factors such as the shift in macro - sentiment and the departure of funds for risk - aversion, the price of stainless steel fluctuated sharply. After a panic sell - off in the pre - holiday market, with the release of low - price bottom - fishing demand and the stabilization of macro - sentiment, the price gradually rebounded and recovered. After the holiday, the concentrated arrival of steel mill resources led to a phased high in social inventory, while the downstream demand started slowly, and the market sentiment became cautious. The spot trading activity in February was generally low, the shipment rhythm of Qingshan agents was affected by the price - limit policy, and the downstream entered the traditional off - season, with low purchasing willingness. The actual transactions were mainly resource transfers among traders. However, the cost support of the industrial chain remained solid, and the significant production cuts by steel mills in February provided some support for the price bottom. It is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the reference range of the main contract being 13,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On March 6, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,085 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.00% [11] - **Supply**: In February, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 923,500 tons. In January, the crude steel output was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 23.59%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in January reached 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in January was 785,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.67% [11] - **Demand**: From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2% [11] - **Inventory**: On March 6, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.71%; on February 27, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,177 tons. On March 6, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 184,300 tons, 716,300 tons, and 249,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 16.16% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel was 53,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.91%, and the unloading quantity was 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [11] - **Cost**: On March 6, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently at a loss of 15 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Data**: The basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the production profit was 353.64 million tons, the supply was 3.0857 million tons, and the inventory was 1.0948 million tons. The long - short scores were 0, - 1, 0, 0, and 0 respectively, and the evaluations were all neutral [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On March 6, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,085 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,205 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [16] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 155 yuan (+240) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 5 yuan (+340) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 173,851 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 45.54% [20] - In terms of month - to - month spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 5 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at 15 (+20) [23] 3.3 Supply End - In February, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 923,500 tons. In January, the crude steel output was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 23.59% [27] - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in January reached 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in January was 785,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.67% [30] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in January was 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.76%. According to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16% [33] - In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; from January to December, the cumulative net export was 3.1937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06% [36] 3.4 Demand End - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57% [40] - In December, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2% [43] - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; in December, the automobile sales volume was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [46] 3.5 Inventory - On March 6, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.71%; on February 27, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,177 tons [50] - On March 6, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 184,300 tons, 716,300 tons, and 249,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 16.16% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel was 53,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.91%, and the unloading quantity was 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [53] 3.6 Cost End - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quotation of nickel ore with Ni:1.5% is 67.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 10.0274 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38% [57] - On March 6, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently at a loss of 15 yuan/nickel [60] - On March 5, the chromium ore quotation was 60 yuan/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,600 yuan/50 base tons, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49% [63] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 132 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 0.91% [66]