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宝城期货股指期货早报-20250923
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 214.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.69 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The LPR interest rate in September remained unchanged, and the central bank made a net investment in the open market, indicating that the central bank kept the market liquidity stable before the long holiday [5] - There are certain differences in market sentiment. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy positive expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5] - In terms of policy, the credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real sector. There is a strong expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in October, and policy positive expectations are gradually fermenting [5] - In terms of funds, there is a sign that residents' deposits are changing to non - bank deposits, indicating a change in investors' wealth allocation direction. Coupled with the high - level operation of the margin trading balance, it shows that the stock market continues to attract incremental funds [5] - In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]