Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, with the stock market risk preference continuously rising [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and strong, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the favorable policy - side expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes showed a volatile upward trend, with obvious increases in IC and IM. The stock market trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. Policy - side favorable expectations support the stock index, and policies such as anti - involution and consumption promotion are conducive to the recovery of the price index and corporate profits. The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and patient capital such as social security and insurance is continuously entering the market, boosting long - term confidence [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they are expected to rise, with a short - term outlook of being mainly oscillating strongly and a medium - term outlook of rising. The upward drive mainly comes from the positive policy expectations in the future, and the current market sentiment is still positive and optimistic, with investors' risk appetite at a relatively high level [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 176.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.93 billion yuan from the previous day. Resource sectors such as coal and steel led the decline because after being driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the stocks in related industries had risen considerably, and as commodity futures prices adjusted, the valuations of related stocks declined. Technically, since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds need to take profits, so the stock index needs time to oscillate and consolidate [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures market is optimistic, with short - term intraday being volatile and strong, and medium - term being on an upward trend. The reference view is an upward trend, mainly supported by positive policy expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is upward, the intraday trend is volatile and strong, and the reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Regarding IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1873.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The current high trading volume indicates investors' positive risk preference. The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from positive policy expectations, and the anti - involution policy helps drive the performance repair expectations of related industries. The market liquidity was loose at the beginning of July, which increased the stock index valuation. After the continuous rebound since June, some stocks have risen significantly. With the tightening of market liquidity recently, the capital market may enter a rotation state. Attention should be paid to domestic policy guidance [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term view of stock index futures is to fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is to rise. The reference view is also a rise. The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by policy - related positive expectations. Although the upward momentum may slow down if policy increments decrease, the overall upward trend remains due to high trading volume and positive market sentiment [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to rise, the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, and the reference view is to rise. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indexes rose slightly throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1,898.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The recent rebound of the stock index is driven by policy - related positive expectations. If policy increments decrease, the upward momentum may slow down. Currently, the trading volume is high, indicating positive investor risk preference. Policy expectations and relevant projects drive the valuation recovery of related industries, and the overall market atmosphere is optimistic, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is the Baocheng Futures rebar morning report dated July 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is slightly bearish. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are in high - level sideways movement [2] - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Supply is contracting as weekly output continues to decline, but production cuts may not last due to good profit margins and some product re - production. Demand is seasonally weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, suppressing steel prices. Although policy expectations drove up steel prices before, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. With cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [3] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are provided. The short - term and medium - term are sideways, and the intraday is slightly bearish. The view is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level sideways steel prices. There are also explanations for calculating price changes and definitions of different price trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - Supply: Weekly output of rebar is declining, but production cuts may not be sustainable due to good profit margins and product re - production. - Demand: Seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, continuing to suppress steel prices. - Market situation: Policy - driven optimism is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. Cost support from strong raw materials exists. Steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels, and attention should be paid to today's Steelhome production and sales data [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall reference view is upward. The core logic is that the stock index rebounded slightly yesterday, with a high trading volume indicating positive investor risk preference, driven by policy利好 expectations. However, the upward momentum may slow down due to potential capital rotation, and attention should be paid to the policy statements of the Politburo meeting [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, different time - cycle views are provided: short - term (oscillatory), medium - term (upward), intraday (oscillatory and bullish), and the overall view is upward, with the core logic being the strong support from policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rose slightly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1928.6 billion yuan, 201.5 billion yuan more than the previous day, indicating positive investor risk preference. The rebound of the stock index is driven by policy利好 expectations, such as anti - involution policies benefiting related industries and the start of a super hydropower project boosting infrastructure stocks. But the upward momentum may slow down due to potential capital rotation, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting's policy statements [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all showed strong upward trends, with daily increases of 3.12%, 2.84%, and 2.49% respectively, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest [4]. - Rebar's fundamentals continue to be seasonally weak, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. However, with limited industrial contradictions, the fermentation of policy - positive expectations boosting market sentiment, and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4][33]. - The supply of hot - rolled coil is shrinking, while demand has good resilience, and its fundamentals have improved with inventory reduction again. With the fermentation of policy - positive expectations and cost support from strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil will continue to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of weak external demand needs to be guarded against [4][34]. - Under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment remains, supporting the strong operation of ore prices. However, its valuation has reached a high level, and caution is needed for upward movement. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB loans of enterprises and institutions in local and foreign currencies was 182.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the number of housing units delivered by real - estate enterprises generally decreased compared with the same period last year, indicating that the peak of delivery has passed [7]. - 36 coal mines have reached the first - level safety production standard and are now being publicly announced [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,421 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,477 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,307 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.12%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,477 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.84%. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 823.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.49% [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production status (such as blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate) [13][18][29] 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply continues to shrink, but the space for continuous production reduction is limited due to good profit per ton. Demand is weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. With limited industrial contradictions, positive policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward [33]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply is shrinking, but the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. Demand has good resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. With improved fundamentals and cost support, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [34]. - Iron ore: Demand is strong with the recovery of steel - mill production, while supply is shrinking. The fundamentals are good, and market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation requires cautious optimism for upward movement [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they are expected to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillating strongly and a medium - term outlook of rising. The main driving force is the policy - driven positive expectations, but the upward momentum may slow down later due to potential capital rotation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM have an intraday view of oscillating strongly, a medium - term view of rising, and an overall reference view of rising. The main rebound momentum comes from policy - driven positive expectations. The trading volume of the stock market is at a high level, indicating positive investor risk preference. However, since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and potential capital rotation may slow down the upward momentum of the stock index. In the short - term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]