| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 30 日，各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 21972 亿元，较上日放量 191 亿 元。9 月制造业 PMI ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic lies in the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term funds' profit - taking intention and the fermentation of long - and medium - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index oscillated widely and recovered after reaching the bottom. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 251.86 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6 billion yuan from the previous day. There is a certain divergence in market sentiment, focusing on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the October key meeting, and the increase in incremental funds can be seen from the fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the year - on - year significant increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August. In general, the stock index is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 214.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.69 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The LPR interest rate in September remained unchanged, and the central bank made a net investment in the open market, indicating that the central bank kept the market liquidity stable before the long holiday [5] - There are certain differences in market sentiment. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy positive expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5] - In terms of policy, the credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real sector. There is a strong expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in October, and policy positive expectations are gradually fermenting [5] - In terms of funds, there is a sign that residents' deposits are changing to non - bank deposits, indicating a change in investors' wealth allocation direction. Coupled with the high - level operation of the margin trading balance, it shows that the stock market continues to attract incremental funds [5] - In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating upward. The overall situation is affected by the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rebounded. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2402.9 billion yuan, an increase of 35.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day [5] - **News**: The Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments recently issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 specific measures from 5 aspects to boost consumption demand and promote the development of service consumption [5] - **Macro - aspect**: In August, the credit and inflation data were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real sector. There is a strong expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in the future, and the key window period for policy introduction is expected to be October [5] - **Fund - aspect**: The non - bank deposits increased significantly in July and August, and the margin trading balance remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market continuously attracted incremental capital inflows. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks in the early stage, there is still a willingness for profit - taking funds to stop profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock index [5] - **Conclusion**: In the short term, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation, and the follow - up focus is on the game between the rhythm of capital profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5]. - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Rise | Oscillating strongly | Wide - range oscillation | Short - term profit - taking intention of funds VS long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 230.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.52 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The newly released credit data is weak, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real sector. Coupled with the weak inflation data in August and the marginal slowdown of the consumption growth rate, the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in the future is strong, and the policy positive expectation will gradually ferment in the fourth quarter. In terms of funds, the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits in July and August indicates that the asset allocation direction of social wealth has begun to change, and the stock market attracts incremental funds to flow in; the margin balance also remains high, indicating that leveraged funds are still net buyers. The policy positive expectation and the trend of continuous capital inflow into the stock market still support the stock index in the long and medium term. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks in the early stage, there is still the intention of profit - taking by profitable funds, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations should be focused on [5].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【今日各股指窄幅震荡，后市短期或宽幅震荡】今日，各股指均进行了窄幅震荡整理。 沪深京三市全 天成交额23031亿元，较上一日缩量2452亿元。 最新信贷数据显示偏弱，反映出实体部门融资需求不 足。加上8月通胀数据不佳、消费增速放缓，未来出台稳需求政策的预期增强，政策利好预期将在四季 度逐渐显现。 资金面上，7、8月非银存款同比多增，显示社会财富资产配置方向转变，股市吸引增量 资金流入；融资余额维持高位，表明杠杆资金仍在净买入。 政策利好预期和资金持续流入股市的趋 势，对股指形成中长期支撑。但因前期部分股票估值提升明显，获利资金有止盈意愿，短线存在技术性 调整压力。 需重点关注资金止盈节奏与政策预期发酵的博弈情况。总体来看，短期内股指预计以宽幅 震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率处于正常区间，鉴于股指中长线向上，可继续持有牛市价差或比例价 差。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2548.3 billion yuan, an increase of 83.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. The weak inflation data in August means that policies to boost the demand side will continue to be introduced, increasing policy positive expectations [5] - Incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market. The margin balance has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan and remained at a high level. The large increase in non - bank deposits in July indicates that residents' wealth allocation may shift to the stock market, and the general trend of continuous inflow of incremental funds remains unchanged [5] - In the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure. The future trend depends on the game between profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all stock indices rebounded unilaterally. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.4646 trillion yuan, an increase of 460.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Since early September, due to the significant increase in the prices of some individual stocks and a notable rise in the valuation, some investors' willingness to chase the market has weakened, and the profit - taking of profitable funds has led to a technical adjustment of the stock indices. However, the positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market still provide long - term support for the stock indices. The Minister of Finance pointed out that "in the next step, more efforts will be made to strengthen the domestic cycle, and more proactive and effective macro - policies will be implemented in a timely manner." Combined with the weak inflation data in August, it means that policies to boost the demand side will continue to be introduced, and the expectation of policy benefits is rising. On the other hand, incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market. The balance of margin trading has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan and remains at a high level. The significant increase in non - bank deposits in July indicates that the trend of residents' maturing time deposits shifting to equity market allocation is gradually taking shape. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is conducive to driving the flow of the US dollar to emerging economies. Therefore, the trend of net inflow of incremental funds into the A - share market remains unchanged, which is expected to promote the repair of the stock market valuation. However, attention should still be paid to the intensity of profit - taking at the current position, and the subsequent market trend depends on the game between profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, the stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 11, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.63% to close at 3.122; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.69% to close at 4.660; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.56% to close at 4.800; the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31% to close at 4548.03; the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35% to close at 7399.89; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 3.16% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 3.14% to close at 2.891; the ChiNext ETF rose 5.22% to close at 3.025; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 3.82% to close at 3.451; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48% to close at 2983.08; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 5.45% to close at 1.39; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 5.50% to close at 1.36 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 74.33, and the previous trading day was 98.65; the position PCR was 90.71, and the previous trading day was 83.10 [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying for various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of the SSE 50ETF option in September 2025 was 15.17%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.60% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends, volatilities, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatilities of the underlying assets of the options [10][20][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic is that the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has increased, leading to a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index, but in the long - term, policy support and loose capital will drive the stock index up [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term upward logic still exists, but the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated weakly and fell sharply. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day, and nearly 3000 stocks in the whole market fell. Some stocks have achieved large increases, so the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has risen, causing a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes. In the long - term, policy support and loose capital will drive the stock index up [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the market sentiment is positive, and the upward trend remains unchanged. However, there are short - term disagreements, and the stock index is expected to have a loose and volatile trend in the short term. For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: The stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2777.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still at a high level, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [5]. - **Short - term Risk**: Some stocks have achieved large gains, and there is a risk of technical adjustment due to profit - taking of profitable funds. There is a need for capital rotation between high - and low - valued stocks [5]. - **Driving Forces**: The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are positive policy expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the moderate recovery of price indices, and repair corporate profits. In terms of capital, the margin trading balance has risen rapidly, non - bank deposits have increased sharply, and long - term funds have continued to enter the market, driving up the logic of stock valuation repair [5].