新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-04 宏观情绪影响，镍不锈钢震荡下跌 2026-03-03日沪镍主力合约开于139500元/吨，收于135450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-3.16%，当日成交量为 730033（+175596）手，持仓量为218764（-349）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈低开低走、探底回升的弱势震荡格局。走势主要受宏观层面得影响为主：首先， 美元指数走强，压制大宗商品价格；其次，美股波动引发商品市场整体抛售情绪；最后，地缘冲突影响市场风险 偏好，资金避险情绪上升。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场延续偏强运行格局。菲律宾镍矿方面，矿山报价维持坚挺，暂无新的公开 招标消息。印尼方面，ESDM设定2026年镍矿产量目标2.09亿吨，主要于测算特许权使用费收入，并非新设生产配 额，不影响当前RKAB执行。据Mysteel调研，今日有Ni:1.5%品位镍矿，升水39美元/湿吨，CIF价格约62美元/湿吨 的成交。印尼RKAB配额审批收紧导致的供应硬缺口持续发酵内贸市场可流通现货资源吃紧，供应紧张局面短期难 以缓解。 现货方面：日内镍价大幅回落，市场整体成交偏淡。下游企业 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 等待政策利好预期落地 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，地缘风险快速升温，中东战 火导致霍尔木兹海峡通行受到实质性影响，油气、航运、军工、黄金等股票大幅上涨，股市成交额突 破 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 22182 亿元，较上日放量 2192 亿元。假期期 间外部利空因素较弱，随着假期之后流动性回流股市，叠加当前临近两会政策时间窗口，市场风 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关 ...

财报分析 公司最新财报为2025年10月28日披露的三季报(累计)，报告期内营收188.91亿美元(同比增长16.83%)， 但净利润19.67亿美元(同比下滑8.38%)。市场关注点转向未发布的2025年第四季度及全年财报，重点观 察利润端修复进展。2025财年年报显示净利率10.74%，净资产收益率(ROE)达29.69%，但净利润同比微 降1.38%，反映盈利压力仍存。 经济观察网近7天(2026年2月6日至12日)，美国废物管理(WM.N)的热点集中于政策环境变化与公司内部 事件。2月11日，美国环境保护署(EPA)证实正推进撤销2009年温室气体危害认定，此举若实施可能降低 废物管理行业的合规成本，对板块构成潜在利好。同时，公司内幕人士Fish James C Jr于2月6日、9日、 10日累计售出3.68万股普通股，价值约846.92万美元，引发市场对资金动向的关注。 股票近期走势 股价呈现震荡上行后回调态势。区间内(2月6日至12日)收盘价从226.79美元升至230.83美元，区间涨跌 幅1.87%，振幅4.80%；最高价触及236.24美元(2月12日)，最低价下探225.36美元(2月9日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with limited upward and downward space. However, the main logic for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock index remains unchanged, supported by positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and there is still a need for oscillation and consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "weak", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation consolidation" - Yesterday, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. IC and IM performed strongly, while IH and IF performed weakly. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2623.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous day - With the policy signals from the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled down, the trading volume has declined, and the stock index has entered an oscillation and consolidation market - The latest macro - economic indicators show that the macro - economy has strong resilience, but the problem of weak domestic demand still exists. The expectation of future macro - policy support is clear - The policy side is determined to support technological innovation and boost consumption, which constitutes a positive policy expectation for small and medium - cap technology growth stocks - In the short term, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down, and the driving effect of funds on the stock index has weakened, resulting in limited upward and downward space for the stock index in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong" due to unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong". The stock market's optimism has cooled, and there is a need for shock consolidation after a sharp rebound. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged, and it is expected that the stock indices will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: slightly strong; overall view: oscillating and slightly strong; core logic: unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: slightly strong; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillating and slightly strong. The total market turnover was 3054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market turnover dropped to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of optimism. After a sharp rebound, there is a need for shock consolidation. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias after the holiday. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is strong, with an overall view of oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Wednesday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, combined with policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds, jointly support the stock index. In 2026, policies are gradually being implemented, and policy - favorable expectations are gradually fermenting. Against the background of the global monetary easing cycle, the trend of large - scale asset allocation to Chinese technology assets is increasing the risk appetite of the stock market. In the short term, as the stock index approaches the previous high, the technical resistance appears, and the upward trend of the stock index slows down. However, after the holiday, with the return of market liquidity and the further fermentation of policy benefits, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to recover [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is oscillating with a slight upward bias. For IH2603, it is expected to be oscillating in the short - and medium - term, and showing a slight upward trend intraday. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with an overall view of oscillating with a slight upward bias [1][5]. - In the short term, the stock index will maintain range - bound oscillations. Although it faced technical resistance when approaching the previous high and pulled back after rising, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds will support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Slightly upward | Oscillating with a slight upward bias | Unchanged positive policy expectations and net inflow of funds [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Slightly upward; **Medium - term View**: Oscillating; **Reference View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated and declined yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2157.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan from the previous day. As the stock index approached the previous high, it faced technical resistance and pulled back after rising. In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of capital entry. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. With the approach of the previous high position of the stock index, pay attention to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high in the short term. Overall, the bullish factors continue to ferment, and the stock index is oscillating and strengthening in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, the intraday is strengthening, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that the policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2160.3 billion yuan, an increase of 216.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The recent trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. As the new year approaches, the policy - side favorable expectations gradually ferment. Coupled with the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and their "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index [5]