投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 1.88 万亿元，较上日成交额放量 936 亿元。由于短期内宏观经济数据仍具有较强韧性，政治局会议对总量政策的 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期发酵 VS 资金了结意 愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 16836 亿元，较上日放量 763 亿元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, with a mid - term view of oscillation and an overall reference view of range - bound oscillation [1][5]. - The core logic is that although the 11 - month manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand, the expectation of policy benefits is strong, especially looking forward to the incremental policy benefits from the December Central Economic Work Conference. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, the risk of the AI asset investment bubble has decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. The support for stock indices is strong due to the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of long - term funds entering the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the fermentation of policy benefit expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly stronger, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indices rebounded oscillatingly yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The expectation of policy benefits is strong, and the support for stock indices is strong [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期发酵 VS 资金了结意 愿上升 | 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡反弹，其中 IM 与 IC 表现偏强。股市全市场成交额 1.59 万亿元，较 上日成交额缩量 1257 亿元。最新公布的 10 月宏观数据边际走弱，消费增速放缓，固投增速回落，规 上企业利润同比增速回落，社融信贷数据走弱等，这说明宏观内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来政 策面利好预期仍较强。加上长线资金入市趋势不变，股指的支撑力量较强。叠加近期海外美联储降息 预期上升，AI 资产投资泡沫风险降温，风险偏好企稳，股指触底回升。不过 12 月中央经济工作会议 之前政策面增量信息较少，股指上行驱动力有所不足 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be mainly in an interval oscillation, with intense short - term games. The medium - term view is that it is strong. The overall reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weaken, and as the stock index approaches the previous high, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward trend of the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Strong | Bullish | Interval Oscillation | The game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1930.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the short term, there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, as long as the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remain unchanged, the upward trend of the stock index will continue [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. Policy利好 expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market form strong support for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index, but in the short term, the profit - taking intention of funds and the weakening of policy incremental signals lead to the need for the stock index to consolidate technically [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded oscillating yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2065.7 billion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy利好 expectations and capital inflow into the stock market support the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. The policy will stabilize the macro - demand expectation and support technological innovation, benefiting the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes. In the short term, the policy incremental signals are weakening, and the profit - taking intention of funds is rising, so the stock index needs to consolidate technically, and the Shanghai Composite Index may oscillate around 4000 points [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating and Core View - The short - term view of the stock index futures is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", and the intraday view is "bullish". The reference view is "range - bound oscillation" [1][5] - The core logic is that as the Shanghai Composite Index reaches the 4000 - point mark, the stock valuation has risen significantly, the willingness of profit - taking funds to stop profits has increased, and the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened. However, the positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market provide medium - and long - term support for the stock index. The future trend depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds [5] Group 2: Specific Information of IH2512 - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the positive policy expectations [1] Group 3: Price and Trading Volume Information - Yesterday, all stock indexes opened higher and closed lower, with an overall decline. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.0139 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous day [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals weaken, and the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises with the increase in stock valuations, so the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation. In the long run, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated slightly. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1944 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market is in an oscillating market with mixed long and short factors. The fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game, limiting both the upward and downward momentum of the stock index. In the long run, policy benefit expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index, especially as next year is the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan". However, in the short term, the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation due to the weakening of incremental policy signals and the rise in profit - taking intention [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, mainly due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. The mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market fell with increased volume yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, showing weak chasing - up sentiment and rising profit - taking willingness of funds. The marginal effect of easing external uncertainty risks decreased, and the policy - favorable expectations for technology stocks were gradually digested. There is still a possibility of technical correction in the stock index in the future, and the short - term trend is mainly wide - range oscillation [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with an overall view of wide - range volatility due to the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. In the short term, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range volatility as the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a wide - range volatility view, and the core logic is the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. Yesterday, each stock index showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating cautious market sentiment. The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia have reduced risk - aversion sentiment and improved market sentiment. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks and the marginal slowdown of the expected incremental policy benefits at the end of the year, there is still a need for capital to take profits. The game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5]