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2.8万亿!十年新高!牛市里最“忌讳”的是什么?……
对冲研投· 2025-08-18 12:13
Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a "bull market driven by liquidity," where the rise in the market is primarily fueled by capital flow rather than fundamental factors [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has seen significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3746 points and total market turnover increasing to 2.81 trillion [5]. - There are two main types of capital entering the market: "low-buying funds" from insurance and other absolute return-focused investors, and "high-leverage funds" from margin trading and asset management, which are primarily driven by retail investors [6]. - The second type of capital, which is more aggressive, has shown a stronger increase compared to the first type, as evidenced by the performance of indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have outperformed the CSI 300 [6][9]. Group 2: Capital Inflow Indicators - Recent data indicates a significant increase in retail investor participation, with 14.56 million new accounts opened in A-shares this year, a 36.88% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. - The People's Bank of China reported a rise in RMB deposits by 500 billion, with a notable decrease in household deposits, suggesting a shift in capital allocation towards the stock market [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a market characterized by alternating capital flows, the best strategy is to hold positions rather than frequently switching stocks, as patience is rewarded in this bull market [12]. - Key indicators for investment decisions include monitoring deviation rates and the ratio of margin buying to total A-share turnover, which can signal potential market corrections [13].