1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, medium - and long - term bonds continued to show a recovery trend, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bond yields, which improved market sentiment. However, the short - term interest rates did not decline further with the loosening of the capital market as the previous interest - rate cut expectations had been priced in. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased slightly, while long - and ultra - long - term bonds performed better, flattening the yield curve [2][79]. - The current market environment has changed significantly compared to 2023 - 2024. The "asset shortage" logic is difficult to replicate. The supply of bond - type assets is abundant, and the demand structure is changing. Market sentiment has shifted from one - sided bullishness to a multi - empty game, and the odds space restricts the market development. Therefore, the sustainability of the trading - driven market may not be overly optimistic, and the market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2][80]. - If the bond market recovery in February enters the late stage, the market will probably enter a more intense game and volatile observation period. Considering the high pressure for the 10 - year Treasury bond to break through and the lack of recovery in short - term bonds, shortening the portfolio duration may have a higher probability of success in the future [2][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In January, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond transactions had a net injection of 100 billion yuan into the market [5]. - On February 4, the central bank conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multi - price - winning bid repurchase operation. After deducting the 700 - billion - yuan maturity in February, the net injection was 100 billion yuan. As of February 6, the outstanding 3 - month and 6 - month repurchase amounts were 2.9 trillion yuan and 4.0 trillion yuan, respectively [6]. - The central bank aims to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [7]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed to make more effective use of funds such as central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, and local government special bonds, as well as new policy - based financial instruments to promote effective investment [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From February 2 to February 6, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations had a total injection of 1005.5 billion yuan, with 1761.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of - 756 billion yuan. From February 9 to February 13, it is expected that 405.5 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn, all from reverse repurchase maturities [10]. - After crossing January, fund prices declined, with DR001 falling below 1.3%. As of February 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.361%, 1.529%, 1.275%, and 1.461% respectively, showing a decline compared to January 30 [12]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs was 506.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of 336.84 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale, reaching 208.56 billion yuan with a net financing of 137.93 billion yuan. The issuance interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased, while those of city and rural commercial banks showed mixed changes [19][22][25]. - In the secondary market, except for a slight increase in the 1 - month - term CD yield, the yields of other terms generally declined. The 1Y - 3M spread is currently at the 46.08% quantile level [30]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - Last week, the supply of interest - rate bonds continued to increase. A total of 118 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance of 1160.673 billion yuan and a net financing of 883.373 billion yuan. In 2026, the issuance rhythm of Treasury bonds and local bonds in January was higher than the historical average. As of February 6, the cumulative net financing of various Treasury bonds and local bonds in 2026 was approximately 640 billion yuan and 1.28 trillion yuan respectively, and the issuance of local bonds had accelerated [33][38]. - As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 590 billion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities. Regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, and Sichuan had relatively large issuance scales, accounting for about 46.46% of the total issuance [39]. Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was still in the recovery stage, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bonds, with the term spread generally compressing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by 2.08BP, - 2.05BP, - 2.09BP, - 0.94BP, - 0.10BP, and - 3.80BP respectively, and the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond yield spread narrowed to 48.95BP [42]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased. The average spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) was 0.29BP, narrowing compared to the previous week [44]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading volume remained at a relatively high level, with an average of about 8.75 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, large banks reduced their marginal increase in Treasury bonds with maturities within 10 years; small and medium - sized banks continued to significantly increase their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years and local bonds of all maturities; insurance companies continued to buy local bonds over 10 years and increased their reduction of Treasury bonds over 10 years; securities firms slowed down their net selling of Treasury bonds over 10 years; and funds significantly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and increased their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years [55][63]. - In December 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.37%, an increase of about 1.33 percentage points compared to November. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.30%, 187.68%, and 134.42% respectively [55]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, steel and glass prices showed a mixed trend, with the rebar futures settlement price down 1.65% and the wire rod futures settlement price up 4.26%. The cathode copper futures settlement price increased by 6.17%, and the cement price index decreased by 0.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 2.74%, while the BDI index increased by 21.91%. Food prices were also mixed, with the wholesale pork price up 0.11% and the wholesale vegetable price down 0.88%. Crude oil prices rose, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures settlement prices up 7.33% and 7.12% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.97 [77]. 6. Market Outlook - The medium - and long - term bond market is expected to enter a more volatile observation period. The possibility of the central bank's reserve - requirement ratio cut and interest - rate cut in the first quarter has decreased. Shortening the portfolio duration may be a more favorable strategy [81].