1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repair trend of the domestic bond market before the Spring Festival is difficult to be shaken by overseas fluctuations, and it is expected to continue the strong - oscillating trend from after the festival to before the Two Sessions. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and seize the opportunity of long - term interest rate repair [2][49] - Although overseas risk preference changes may cause certain disturbances to the bond market, they will not change the overall market trend [4] - If the 10 - year Treasury bond can stabilize below 1.8%, the supplementary rise market of 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds is still worth looking forward to [3][30] - The peak of government bond supply in Q1 may have passed [4][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic bond market continued to repair, with most credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads converging. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through 1.8% and finally stabilized around 1.78%, and the long - term secondary - tier perpetual bonds declined more [2][14] - Since mid - January, the continuous net purchase of long - term bonds by large banks has been an important factor in the bond market repair. In January, the new credit of large and small and medium - sized banks was lower than the same period last year, but the deposit growth rate increased, especially for large banks. Large banks increased their bond investment, especially long - term bonds, which is a rare phenomenon [2][15][21] - The Q4 monetary policy report shows that the central bank's demand for stable growth has increased, and its concern about the side effects of easing has weakened. It is expected that the central bank will maintain a loose liquidity environment and increase the purchase of Treasury bonds [3][27] 3.2 Overseas Key Events 3.2.1 US IEEPA Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs implemented under IEEPA were unconstitutional. Trump announced a 10% tariff on almost all US imports under Article 122, which was later raised to 15%. The new tariff adjustment will change the actual tax rates of some economies, and Trump hopes that trading partners will continue to fulfill their commitments [53][54] - After the tariff ruling, the market showed a combination of rising gold prices, rebounding US stocks, falling US dollars, and slightly rising US bond yields. However, this may be a short - term reaction, and the increase in global risk appetite may not last long [57] 3.2.2 The Second Round of Negotiations between the US and Iran Reached a Consensus, but the Military Confrontation Continued to Escalate - On February 17, the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran reached a consensus on the procedure and framework, but there were still differences on issues such as uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional agents. The two sides agreed to start the third - round negotiations on February 26 [58] - Meanwhile, the military confrontation between the two sides continued to escalate. Trump issued an ultimatum, and the US assembled a large - scale air force in the Middle East. Iran conducted live - fire exercises and partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant increase in oil prices during the Spring Festival. However, these military threats may be extreme pressure before the next round of negotiations, and the final result remains to be seen [59][62] 3.3 Domestic Long - Holiday Data - Due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel willingness increased. The cross - regional passenger flow during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 5.5%, and the passenger flow has reached a record high for three consecutive days since the 19th. The travel volume of various transportation modes has increased to varying degrees [63] - The increase in travel willingness has improved consumption activities. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% in the first four days of the holiday, and the turnover of 78 business districts increased by 4.8%. However, the per - capita consumption amount in Hainan's duty - free shopping decreased, indicating that residents' consumption ability is still restricted [71] - The box office of the 2026 Spring Festival film season was at a low level in recent years, which may be related to the increase in travel demand and the lack of high - profile films. The price of Feitian Moutai was relatively stable during the Spring Festival [72][75] 3.4 Overseas Data - The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers. Most participants believed that the downward risk of the labor market had eased, but inflation was more persistent, and some even discussed the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's neutral expectation for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026 remains at 2 times [77] - Affected by the US government shutdown, the GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2025 was lower than expected, but the impact may be short - term, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 of 2026 is expected to rebound technically [77][79] - Japan's core CPI in January fell to 2%, but the CPI excluding fresh food and fuel was still above the target. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the middle of the year [81] - The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan rebounded, while that in the US declined. The service PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan increased slightly, while those in the US and the UK decreased slightly [83][85] 3.5 Major Asset Classes - **Stock Market**: During the Spring Festival, US stocks rose slightly, South Korean and European stocks strengthened, the Japanese stock market oscillated, and the Hang Seng Index recovered its previous losses on Monday after adjusting on Friday [87] - **Bond Market**: During the Spring Festival, the US bond interest rate rose slightly, the bond yields in the Eurozone declined overall, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond interest rate declined significantly due to the significant decline in inflation in January [92] - **Exchange Rate**: During the Spring Festival, the US dollar index rebounded, the Australian dollar was strong, the offshore RMB and the South Korean won maintained resilience, and most developed - economy currencies depreciated against the US dollar [99] - **Commodities**: The conflict between the US and Iran and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories led to an increase in oil prices. Precious metals were linked to risk assets and rose significantly after the IEEPA was ruled unconstitutional on Friday [104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, medium - and long - term bonds continued to show a recovery trend, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bond yields, which improved market sentiment. However, the short - term interest rates did not decline further with the loosening of the capital market as the previous interest - rate cut expectations had been priced in. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased slightly, while long - and ultra - long - term bonds performed better, flattening the yield curve [2][79]. - The current market environment has changed significantly compared to 2023 - 2024. The "asset shortage" logic is difficult to replicate. The supply of bond - type assets is abundant, and the demand structure is changing. Market sentiment has shifted from one - sided bullishness to a multi - empty game, and the odds space restricts the market development. Therefore, the sustainability of the trading - driven market may not be overly optimistic, and the market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2][80]. - If the bond market recovery in February enters the late stage, the market will probably enter a more intense game and volatile observation period. Considering the high pressure for the 10 - year Treasury bond to break through and the lack of recovery in short - term bonds, shortening the portfolio duration may have a higher probability of success in the future [2][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In January, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond transactions had a net injection of 100 billion yuan into the market [5]. - On February 4, the central bank conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multi - price - winning bid repurchase operation. After deducting the 700 - billion - yuan maturity in February, the net injection was 100 billion yuan. As of February 6, the outstanding 3 - month and 6 - month repurchase amounts were 2.9 trillion yuan and 4.0 trillion yuan, respectively [6]. - The central bank aims to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [7]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed to make more effective use of funds such as central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, and local government special bonds, as well as new policy - based financial instruments to promote effective investment [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From February 2 to February 6, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations had a total injection of 1005.5 billion yuan, with 1761.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of - 756 billion yuan. From February 9 to February 13, it is expected that 405.5 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn, all from reverse repurchase maturities [10]. - After crossing January, fund prices declined, with DR001 falling below 1.3%. As of February 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.361%, 1.529%, 1.275%, and 1.461% respectively, showing a decline compared to January 30 [12]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs was 506.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of 336.84 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale, reaching 208.56 billion yuan with a net financing of 137.93 billion yuan. The issuance interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased, while those of city and rural commercial banks showed mixed changes [19][22][25]. - In the secondary market, except for a slight increase in the 1 - month - term CD yield, the yields of other terms generally declined. The 1Y - 3M spread is currently at the 46.08% quantile level [30]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - Last week, the supply of interest - rate bonds continued to increase. A total of 118 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance of 1160.673 billion yuan and a net financing of 883.373 billion yuan. In 2026, the issuance rhythm of Treasury bonds and local bonds in January was higher than the historical average. As of February 6, the cumulative net financing of various Treasury bonds and local bonds in 2026 was approximately 640 billion yuan and 1.28 trillion yuan respectively, and the issuance of local bonds had accelerated [33][38]. - As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 590 billion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities. Regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, and Sichuan had relatively large issuance scales, accounting for about 46.46% of the total issuance [39]. Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was still in the recovery stage, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bonds, with the term spread generally compressing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by 2.08BP, - 2.05BP, - 2.09BP, - 0.94BP, - 0.10BP, and - 3.80BP respectively, and the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond yield spread narrowed to 48.95BP [42]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased. The average spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) was 0.29BP, narrowing compared to the previous week [44]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading volume remained at a relatively high level, with an average of about 8.75 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, large banks reduced their marginal increase in Treasury bonds with maturities within 10 years; small and medium - sized banks continued to significantly increase their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years and local bonds of all maturities; insurance companies continued to buy local bonds over 10 years and increased their reduction of Treasury bonds over 10 years; securities firms slowed down their net selling of Treasury bonds over 10 years; and funds significantly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and increased their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years [55][63]. - In December 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.37%, an increase of about 1.33 percentage points compared to November. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.30%, 187.68%, and 134.42% respectively [55]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, steel and glass prices showed a mixed trend, with the rebar futures settlement price down 1.65% and the wire rod futures settlement price up 4.26%. The cathode copper futures settlement price increased by 6.17%, and the cement price index decreased by 0.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 2.74%, while the BDI index increased by 21.91%. Food prices were also mixed, with the wholesale pork price up 0.11% and the wholesale vegetable price down 0.88%. Crude oil prices rose, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures settlement prices up 7.33% and 7.12% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.97 [77]. 6. Market Outlook - The medium - and long - term bond market is expected to enter a more volatile observation period. The possibility of the central bank's reserve - requirement ratio cut and interest - rate cut in the first quarter has decreased. Shortening the portfolio duration may be a more favorable strategy [81].

Core Viewpoint - The market for technology innovation bonds (科创债) is expected to grow significantly, with the Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF (科创债ETF鹏华) showing strong performance and potential for recovery in the bond market due to favorable monetary policies and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF recorded a slight pullback with a trading volume of 6.259 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1]. - The latest scale of the Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF reached 19.257 billion yuan, ranking second in the market and first in the Shanghai Stock Exchange among similar products [1]. - The average yield of the Shanghai AAA Technology Innovation Bond Index is 2.02%, with a duration of 3.72 years [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF tracks the Shanghai AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond Index, which selects bonds with AAA ratings and above from technology innovation companies [1]. - Compared to individual bond purchases, the ETF offers advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, high transparency, high diversification, and efficient "T+0" redemption, which helps to mitigate investment risks and improve capital efficiency [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities believes that the policy dividends will create a broad market space for technology innovation bonds, with the ETF's long-term value and market influence expected to continue to grow [2]. - Penghua Fund has been actively developing a range of fixed-income tools since the second half of 2018, aiming to become a domestic expert in fixed-income indices [2]. - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 24 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in this investment vehicle [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant rise in early trading on July 31, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increasing by 0.52% [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.07 yuan, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 46,165 contracts and a total open interest of 117,716 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw increases, with the 10-year bond (T2509) up 0.16%, the 5-year bond (TF2509) up 0.07%, and the 2-year bond (TS2509) up 0.01% [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan today, maintaining the bidding rate at 1.40% [1] - Major interbank interest rates for government bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 3.25 basis points to 1.715% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 4 basis points to 1.921% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - As the end of July approached, bill rates plummeted, with the 1-month government acceptance bill rate falling to 0.01% [2] - Demand from small and medium-sized institutions, represented by rural commercial banks, was strong, indicating insufficient credit issuance in July [2] - Large banks have been actively purchasing bills, with net purchases exceeding 210 billion yuan from July 21 to 25 and over 500 billion yuan for the month, compared to just over 120 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping nearly 4 basis points and other maturities recovering by 2-3 basis points [2] Group 4: Investment Product Highlight - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes [3] - This product allows investors to engage in day trading for profit and helps in extending portfolio duration or hedging equity positions [3] - It serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and duration adjustment tool, with strong trading attributes during market interest rate fluctuations and strong allocation attributes in a low-interest-rate environment [3]