1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The surge in non - bank deposits is not simply due to "deposits entering the market." It is influenced by government fiscal funds, enterprise "manual interest compensation" policy changes, and the transfer of residents' excess net savings [17][18]. - The current equity market rally may have some sustainability. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of residents' "excess net savings" may continue to transfer, with 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan potentially entering the equity market [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Non - bank Deposits Surge is Not Simply "Deposits Entering the Market" - In August 2025, the newly - added household deposits were only 110 billion yuan, the lowest in the same period in the past decade. In contrast, the newly - added non - bank financial institution deposits were 1180 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the seasonal level for two consecutive months [19]. - The view of "deposits entering the market" has methodological flaws, as the "household deposits/A - share total market value" ratio is affected by stock price changes and ignores data seasonality [19][21]. - The seasonal fluctuations of household deposits are mainly due to seasonal consumption demand and bank deposit assessment at the end of the half - year. The seasonal fluctuations of non - bank deposits are related to bank MPA assessments and the scale increase of bank wealth management products [21][25]. 3.2 Support Factor from the Government: Lubrication Effect of Active Fiscal Fund Allocation - As of August 2025, the balance of fiscal deposits was 7.8 trillion yuan. Fiscal deposits are mainly affected by broad fiscal revenues and expenditures and government bond net financing [30]. - In 2025, fiscal front - loading provided sufficient funds for government deposits. However, fiscal revenue showed a situation of "high financing, low precipitation," which may be related to the improvement of fiscal expenditure efficiency and the conversion of fiscal funds into entity - sector deposits [31][38]. 3.3 Support Factor from Enterprises: Persistent Scar Effect of Canceling the "Manual Interest Compensation" Policy 3.3.1 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Annual Reports of Listed Banks - Since the end of 2022, the central bank and regulatory authorities have introduced policies to guide large banks to increase credit investment in specific areas, resulting in more enterprise deposits being concentrated in large - bank systems [45]. - Banks have taken multiple measures to reduce deposit costs, but the effect is not obvious. The main reasons are the regular - ization of household deposits and the high cost of enterprise deposits affected by "manual interest compensation" [47][50]. - After the "manual interest compensation" was stopped in April 2024, about 40% of the current deposits of large state - owned and joint - stock banks were estimated to be "ultra - compliant" deposits. However, not all of these deposits will flow out immediately [56][61]. 3.3.2 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Trend of Enterprise Current Deposits in the Credit Caliber - After the cancellation of "manual interest compensation," the year - on - year decline of enterprise current deposits significantly expanded. From April to August 2024, the cumulative year - on - year over - reduction scale was 4502.42 billion yuan, accounting for about 18.3% of the total balance at the end of March 2024 [65][69]. 3.3.3 Two Factors for the Improvement of Enterprises' Short - term Capital Position - The issuance of government bonds and the allocation of fiscal funds have accelerated, injecting liquidity into the enterprise sector. The increase in settlement demand has led to an increase in RMB funds, which has also promoted the recovery of enterprise current deposits [70][71]. 3.4 Support Factor from Residents: Maturity Transfer of Excess Net Savings 3.4.1 Historical Review of Two Rounds of Residents' "Deposit Outflows" - From 2009 - 2011, residents' savings first flowed into the stock and real - estate markets and then into wealth management and trust products. This was due to the economic stimulus policies after the financial crisis and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy to control inflation [78][82]. - From 2014 - 2016, the bull markets in stocks and bonds, the rise of Internet finance, and the relaxation of real - estate policies led to the diversion of residents' deposits [89][102]. 3.4.2 Calculation of the Precipitated "Savings" with Migration Potential in the Resident Sector - Since 2020, residents' savings have significantly deviated from the linear trend, mainly in the form of regular deposits. As of August 2025, the excess regular savings were about 47.75 trillion yuan, while the excess current savings were only 0.33 trillion yuan [111][115]. - The concept of "excess net savings" is introduced to measure the real "excess" savings accumulation by considering both the asset and liability sides of the resident sector [118]. 3.5 The Bull Market Continues, and 3.3 Trillion Yuan of Deposits May Continue to Transfer This Year, with 0.49 - 0.82 Trillion Yuan Potentially Entering the Market - From June to August 2025, the "deposit transfer" of residents may be in the initial stage, mainly due to the transfer of matured "excess net savings" rather than a fundamental change in residents' risk preference [5][18]. - The equity market rally may have some sustainability. Leveraged funds, medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and foreign capital may support the market. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of funds may continue to transfer, with 15% - 25% (about 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan) potentially entering the equity market [5].