11月非银存款再度同比少增，"存款搬家"偃旗息鼓了吗？ 央行披露的最新金融数据显示，11月人民币存款增速显著放缓，居民、企业、财政及非银存款全面同比少增。其 中，非银存款仅增加800亿元，同比少增1000亿元，继9月之后再度出现同比少增。 在受访人士看来，在存款向股市"搬家"这一趋势假设下，非银存款的波动是资本市场波动的结果，预计后续还将 延续高波动趋势。另有机构数据显示，明年居民存款到期规模超过170万亿元，较今年又将多出近20万亿元。其 中，2年期以上定存的到期规模在32万亿元左右。 据中金公司测算，今年前10个月，居民定期存款规模累计增长10.5万亿元，比2023年少增了3.9万亿元；年初以 来，居民活期存款、银行理财、非货币基金分别增长了0.9万亿元、3.6万亿元、2.7万亿元，较2023年同期分别多 增1.6万亿元、4万亿元、2.6万亿元。相比2023年，今年前10个月非银存款多增了6万亿元。 "如果非银存款增速较居民存款抬升，意味着居民在资产配置上将存款转化为金融资产，对应其风险偏好有所抬 升；从历史经验来看，非银居民存款剪刀差同步于A股成交金额占A股总市值的比重，且非银存款增长规模与A股 的成交 ...

本文字数：2898，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 杜川 11月金融数据显示出企业票据冲量、居民需求疲软、对公信贷投放季节性回升的显著分化特征。 当月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，不及市场预期。结构上，企业部门虽发挥"压舱 石"作用，但主要依赖票据融资和短期贷款拉动，中长期贷款同比少增；居民部门信贷需求进一步走 弱，贷款减少2063亿元，同比多减4763亿元；与此同时，M1-M2负剪刀差扩大至-3.1%，非银存款增长 年内规律也被打破。 居民短贷、中长贷双弱 2025.12.14 数据显示，11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，显著低于市场预期。票据融资增加3342 亿元，同比增加2119亿元，环比减少1664亿元。票据冲量背后，是信贷需求的持续疲软以及实体有效融 资需求的不足。 尽管整体数据不及预期，但企业部门依然发挥信贷投放"压舱石"作用。11月企（事）业单位贷款增加 6100亿元，同比增加3600亿元，环比增加2600亿元。其中，企业短期贷款增加1000亿元，同比、环比分 别增加1100亿元、2900亿元；企业中长贷增加1700亿元，同比减少400亿元，环比增 ...

2025.12. 14 本文字数：2898，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月金融数据显示出企业票据冲量、居民需求疲软、对公信贷投放季节性回升的显著分化特征。 当月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，不及市场预期。结构上，企业部门虽发挥"压舱 石"作用，但主要依赖票据融资和短期贷款拉动，中长期贷款同比少增；居民部门信贷需求进一步走 弱，贷款减少2063亿元，同比多减4763亿元；与此同时，M1-M2负剪刀差扩大至-3.1%，非银存款 增长年内规律也被打破。 居民短贷、中长贷双弱 数据显示，11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，显著低于市场预期。票据融资增加 3342亿元，同比增加2119亿元，环比减少1664亿元。票据冲量背后，是信贷需求的持续疲软以及实 体有效融资需求的不足。 尽管整体数据不及预期，但企业部门依然发挥信贷投放"压舱石"作用。11月企（事）业单位贷款增加 6100亿元，同比增加3600亿元，环比增加2600亿元。其中，企业短期贷款增加1000亿元，同比、环 比分别增加1100亿元、2900亿元；企业中长贷增加1700亿元，同比减少400亿元，环 ...

Core Insights - The overall financial data for November fell short of expectations, with corporate lending acting as a stabilizing force while household credit demand weakened further [1][2][11] Group 1: Corporate Lending - In November, new RMB loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, which was below market expectations. Corporate lending increased by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [2][3] - Corporate short-term loans rose by 100 billion yuan, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 110 billion yuan and 290 billion yuan, respectively. However, medium to long-term loans decreased year-on-year by 40 billion yuan [3][4] - The reliance on bill financing and short-term loans indicates a lack of effective financing demand from the real economy, with corporate bond financing also providing an alternative to loans [3][11] Group 2: Household Lending - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decline of 476.3 billion yuan, reflecting weak consumer demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][5] - Cumulatively, household loans added only 533.3 billion yuan in the first eleven months, accounting for just 3.5% of new credit, compared to 13.9% in the same period last year [4][5] - The decline in household credit is attributed to weak consumption demand and the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, with short-term loans under pressure despite a temporary improvement during the "Double 11" shopping festival [5][11] Group 3: Deposit Trends - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan, with household deposits rising by 670 billion yuan but still down 120 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9] - Non-bank deposits showed a significant slowdown, indicating a shift of funds from deposits to financial assets due to market volatility [6][8] - The M1-M2 "scissors difference" expanded to -3.1%, reflecting weak demand for real economy financing, with M2 growth at 8% and M1 growth dropping to 4.9% [9][10] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The current financing demand landscape is characterized by weak household demand, increasing corporate lending, and strong government financing capabilities, which may persist for one to two more quarters [11][12] - Future policies are expected to focus on enhancing consumer demand through increased social spending, stabilizing employment, and improving income levels, which may eventually support household credit growth [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [10] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing (社融) continues to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% as of the end of October, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month [2][19] - The demand for credit remains weak, with a notable seasonal decline in lending, leading to expectations of a further decrease in social financing growth to around 8% by year-end [2][10] - Non-bank deposits continue to show high growth, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits of 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of "non-bankization" in deposits [9][10] Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - As of the end of October, social financing (剔除政府债) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a monthly addition of 814.2 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 597.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][19] - Government bond net financing was 489.3 billion yuan, down 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while RMB loans decreased by 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 316.6 billion yuan [2][3] Loan Demand and Investment - The demand for corporate loans remains weak, with a notable decrease in short-term loans by 190 billion yuan and a year-on-year decline in medium to long-term loans by 1.4 billion yuan [3][4] - Fixed asset investment has seen a widening decline of 1.7%, with real estate investment dropping by 14.7% year-on-year [3][4] Household Credit and Deposits - Household loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 110 billion yuan, reflecting a strong willingness to deleverage among residents [4][9] - The total amount of RMB deposits increased by 610 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan, while both household and corporate deposits saw significant declines [9][10]

Financial Data Overview - In October, new social financing (社融) was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan[4] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.7% previously, a decline of 0.2 percentage points[4] - M2 growth was 8.2% year-on-year, also down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[4] - M1 growth was 6.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the prior value[4] Loan Performance - New RMB loans in October totaled 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan[6] - Corporate loans decreased primarily due to medium and long-term loans, which saw a net repayment of 40 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 320 billion yuan[6] - New corporate loans amounted to 350 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan, while short-term loans remained stable compared to last year[7] Policy Impact - The effects of policy financial tools are beginning to show, with new entrusted loans increasing by 1,653 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 1,872 billion yuan[14] - However, the impact on corporate credit from these tools has not yet materialized, primarily due to the seasonal nature of October being a weak month for corporate loans[14] Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits followed a seasonal pattern, decreasing at the end of the quarter and rebounding at the beginning, with an increase of 18,500 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7,700 billion yuan, the highest level in five years[20] - The shift of funds back into wealth management products in October contributed to the increase in non-bank deposits[21] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to focus on the health of banks rather than strict credit targets, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated early next year[24][26] - Risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not meet expectations, uncertainties in wealth management behaviors, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[27]

Core Viewpoints - The static forecast indicates that the old-caliber M1 is expected to decline from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is projected to decrease from 8.4% in September to approximately 8.0% by year-end, both remaining higher than the end of 2024 [2] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth involves understanding the components of M1 as part of M2, with M1 being derived from M2 minus other currencies [7][17] Group 1: M2 Growth Factors - M2 growth is influenced by five main factors: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors [8][20] - The forecast for M2 growth indicates a decline of 900 billion, with M2 expected to decrease to around 8.0% by year-end due to factors such as reduced government leverage and a decline in corporate loans [8][22][28] Group 2: M1 Growth Analysis - The old-caliber M1 is expected to decline by 1.6 trillion year-on-year, with a forecasted drop to 3.4% by year-end, influenced by factors such as a decrease in household deposits and a stable level of non-bank deposits [9][10][52] - The analysis of other currencies shows that household deposits are expected to decrease by 620 billion, while non-bank deposits are projected to increase by 1.9 trillion [46][47] Group 3: Impacts on Capital Markets - Changes in M1 are seen as leading indicators for price improvements, with M1 growth typically preceding changes in PPI and industrial product inventory by three to four quarters [54] - Non-bank deposits are closely linked to trading volumes in the financial market, with higher non-bank deposits correlating with increased trading activity [55] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits can predict corporate profits and ten-year treasury yields approximately one year in advance [57] Group 4: Potential Scenarios for M1 Changes - Several scenarios for potential M1 changes in Q4 are proposed, including increased corporate loans and infrastructure investment, which could lead to upward pressure on M1 and M2 [63] - Another scenario suggests that a decrease in M2 and household deposits, alongside an increase in corporate deposits, could indicate improved economic cycles and profitability [64]

Core Insights - The report predicts that the old-caliber M1 year-on-year growth will decline from 6.2% in September to approximately 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is expected to decrease from 8.4% in September to around 8.0% by year-end [1][10] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth is based on the formula: old-caliber M1 = M2 - other currencies, where M2 is derived from various leverage factors across different sectors [4][14] M1 and M2 Growth Analysis - The report outlines five key factors influencing M2 growth: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors, with a projected M2 year-on-year decline of 900 billion [6][20] - The anticipated decline in M1 growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decrease in corporate loans by 300 billion and a reduction in household deposits by 6200 billion [7][33] - Historical data indicates that changes in M1 correlate with shifts in PPI and industrial inventory levels, suggesting that M1 serves as a leading indicator for these economic metrics [2][13] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of M1 and M2 in relation to asset allocation, highlighting that M1's growth is closely tied to the performance of equity markets and corporate profitability [9][33] - The analysis suggests that a stable equity market environment could lead to a shift in household deposits towards investment assets, thereby impacting M1 growth positively [34][40] Future Projections - The report forecasts that M1 growth will be approximately 2.3 trillion, with M2 growth around 25 trillion, reflecting a broader economic context where monetary policy and market conditions play crucial roles [51][53] - The anticipated government bond issuance is expected to decrease, which may further influence M2 growth dynamics in the upcoming quarters [27][30]

Core Insights - The significant decrease in non-bank deposits in September is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a weak stock market performance in 2025, which contrasts with the strong equity market in 2024 [2][4] Financial Data Summary - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 19,700 million yuan, while resident deposits increased by 7,600 million yuan [4] - The total social financing (社融) in September was 35,338 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2,297 million yuan, primarily due to a high base from government financing [3] - New RMB loans in September amounted to 12,900 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3,000 million yuan, with short-term loans for residents decreasing by 1,279 million yuan [3] - M1 growth rate increased to 7.2%, while M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.4%, indicating a trend towards more liquid deposits among residents [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 growing by 8.4% year-on-year and M1 by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two, which reflects a shift in liquidity dynamics [6][8][9] Group 2 - The increase in M1 is attributed to a decline in government bond prices, leading individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments and place them into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits rose by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits fell by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article suggests that the current market volatility and lack of clear upward trends in the stock market have led to a decrease in the attractiveness of non-bank investments, resulting in a return of funds to traditional banking [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates that the government will continue to stimulate the capital market to encourage investment and support economic recovery, as the current economic conditions necessitate such actions [15][18] - It discusses the potential for a bull market in the A-share market, suggesting that as long as there is a need to escape deflation, the market will continue to seek upward momentum [19][20] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and monetary policy decisions, are expected to influence market behavior, with a recommendation for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of these developments [21][22]