Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top forecasters warn that tariffs may trigger an economic recession, yet the stock market appears largely unaffected by these warnings [1][2]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Apollo Global Management's chief economist places it at 90% [2]. - The S&P 500 index recently completed its longest nine-day rally since 2004, rising approximately 10% and recovering from a significant drop following President Trump's tariff announcement [2]. - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is down only 3.1%, indicating limited investor concern about future economic conditions [2]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing uncertainties, consumer confidence has not significantly changed, although potential risks remain [4]. - Economists suggest that even low tariff levels could have a cascading effect on the U.S. economy, impacting consumer spending, business investment, and employment [4]. - A recent report indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations, possibly driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [4]. - Visa reported no signs of overall weakness in credit card spending as of April 21 [4]. Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - Raymond James' chief investment officer emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit card data as a potential warning signal for economic conditions [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists believe the impact of tariffs may take two to three months to reflect in inflation data, predicting a slowdown in consumer spending soon [5]. - Vanguard has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to below 1%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainties, and expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end [5]. Stock Market Dynamics - While overall stock performance is strong, there are underlying concerns, with a few large tech companies driving the rebound [6]. - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are performing well, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy and discretionary spending lag behind [6]. - Interest rate futures traders are now confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least three times this year, with a 63% chance of recession predicted by market bettors, up from 40% in March [6]. - The excess CAPE yield, a measure of risk compensation for holding stocks over bonds, was only 1.8% at the end of April, about half of its 50-year average [6].

但高盛经济学家警告称，等关税的影响真的反映到CPI通胀里，可能还要再等两三个月，随后才会看到 消费放缓。 尽管高盛说未来12个月美国有45%的可能陷入衰退，阿波罗甚至喊出90%的高概率，但市场却在"无视 预警"地狂欢。标普500九日连涨，今年至今仅跌3.3%，债券收益率和美元也已企稳，似乎没有人真正 在担心接下来会怎样。 美东时间5月3日，华尔街日报作者Jack Pitcher和Sam Goldfarb指出，市场之所以能如此淡定，主要因为 投资者对包括周五就业报告在内的稳健经济数据充满信心，并指望特朗普总统的全球贸易战迅速降级。 然而，经济学家却忧心忡忡。他们担心持续的关税会拖累消费、企业投资和就业，最坏的可能是出 现"滞胀"，也就是物价涨但经济增长放缓。PGIM首席经济学家Tom Porcelli指出，现在的股市就像是大 家在明知道前方有风险，却还装作无事发生的样子： "由于仍然存在很大的不确定性，股市的反弹感觉就像在坟场旁边吹口哨。" 市场高兴太早了？ 作者指出，部分强劲数据只是短期掩盖了真相。3月份经通胀调整后的家庭支出激增0.7%超过预期，但 这可能是抢在关税前的囤货；Visa信用卡数据也显示，到4月 ...