Report Title - Central Point Continues to Decline, Focus on Arbitrage under Oil Transport Disturbance - 2026 Annual Outlook for Crude Oil Futures [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - BRENT, WTI may test $50/barrel, SC may test CNY 380/barrel, and a trend rebound may not occur until the second half of 2026 [2] - Global inventory accumulation is the major trend under the increased production of OPEC+, the US, and non-OPEC+ countries, especially in the first half of the year; geopolitics and the oil transport market are the key variables [2] - The strategy is to short on rallies and focus on various types of arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Crude Oil Price Trend Review - In 2025, the international crude oil market was affected by seasonality and macro factors. The price center shifted downward year-on-year [6] - In Q1, prices first rose and then fell. In Q2, prices bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the month. In Q3, prices did not rise during the peak season and instead declined. In Q4, prices fell due to geopolitical and trade issues [6] 2. Supplementary Notes on Oil Price Influencing Factors and Pricing Mechanisms - The negative correlation between oil prices and the US dollar is difficult to recover in 2026 due to high core PCE in the US and a moderate pace of interest rate cuts [10] 3. Supply 3.1 US Shale Oil - The transmission logic of oil prices to shale oil involves multiple steps, with a time lag [15] - In 2025, production efficiency increased through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, offsetting the decline in the number of rigs [20] - Shale oil still faces cost pressure, including high break-even prices and increased equipment costs due to tariffs [28] - In 2026, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, with increases in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska offsetting the decline in the lower 48 states [33] 3.2 OPEC+ - In 2025, OPEC+ gradually exited production cuts and increased production, with an 80% completion rate by the end of the year [42] - In 2026, OPEC+ will adopt a "wait-and-see, then intervene" policy, with production policy adjustments depending on market conditions [77] - There are significant differences in OPEC production data among different institutions, which may lead to a reevaluation of the market's understanding of OPEC's remaining production capacity and global oil demand [55] 3.3 Non-OPEC+ - In 2025, non-OPEC+ supply increased by 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by offshore projects [88] - In 2026, the supply growth rate will slow down to 1.2 million barrels per day, with the Americas and the North Sea remaining the main sources of growth [89] 3.4 Supply Side Summary - In 2026, the global crude oil supply pattern remains uncertain. US production is expected to be stable, non-OPEC+ growth will slow down, and Russia's production may decline [94] 4. Geopolitical Disturbance and Trade Flow Changes 4.1 Observation Dimensions of Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitical events affect the crude oil market through price signals, market structure, and capital flow [95] 4.2 Major Geopolitical Events and Their Impact Paths - The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, with the prospect of a ceasefire remaining uncertain. The outcome will affect the global oil market through supply and price premiums [105] - Venezuela's geopolitical risk is increasing, which will affect the heavy oil supply and price differentials [116] - The Middle East remains a high-risk area, with potential events such as the resurgence of the Iran-Israel conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [128] - Tensions in East Asia due to Japan's actions may disrupt key oil trade routes [132] 4.3 Importance of the Oil Transport Market - The oil transport market has become increasingly important, with运费 fluctuations affecting crude oil cross-regional spreads [141] - In 2025, oil transport freight rates increased significantly in Q4, and the market is expected to remain volatile in 2026 [145] 4.4 Key Points of Various Cross-Regional Arbitrages - SC-Dubai and SC-Brent spreads are affected by oil transport freight rates and regional inventories [169] - The EFS spread is expected to remain low in 2026 due to limited European demand and supply changes [178] - The Brent-WTI spread will continue to be influenced by freight rates in 2026 [179] 4.5 Key Points of Calendar Spread Arbitrage - SC calendar spreads are affected by supply and demand expectations, inventory levels, and arbitrage opportunities [183] - In 2026, SC calendar spreads are expected to remain flat in the first half of the year, with positive calendar spread arbitrage being the preferred strategy [190] 5. Global Refining Capacity and Supply-Demand Balance 5.1 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, global refining capacity increased by 232,250 barrels per day [191] - In 2026, global refining capacity is planned to increase by 1.45265 million barrels per day, mainly in Asia [195] 5.2 Refining Capacity Changes from 2021 to 2030 - From 2021 to 2025, global refining capacity decreased significantly, while from 2026 to 2030, it will show a trend of short-term rebound, continuous decline, and low-level fluctuation [203][204] - Asia will remain the core of global refining capacity growth, but the growth rate will slow down [206] 5.3 Refining Capacity Summary - In 2026, refining capacity changes will affect price differentials, but other factors such as freight rates and OPEC+ production adjustments also need to be considered [209] 6. Strategy Summary - In 2026, the crude oil market will be characterized by intensified supply-demand games, frequent geopolitical disturbances, and a reshaped oil transport pattern [210] - The price center is likely to continue to decline, and inventory accumulation will be the main trend, especially in the first half of the year [210] - The strategy is to short on rallies and focus on various types of arbitrage opportunities [3]