1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, and the original oversupply logic has been restructured. The valuations of futures contracts have increased significantly, especially for the far - end contracts. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter will increase, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the month - spread may move towards a positive spread structure. For far - month contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for the time being, and the month - spread tends to be in a reverse spread. Due to the ongoing industrial restructuring, the uncertainty of single - side trading has increased, and more attention should be paid to month - spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, pig prices rebounded after a decline. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand highlights, pig prices initially fell. However, towards the end of the month, the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm and increased downstream procurement difficulty led to a price rebound. The weekly average price in Henan increased by 0.1 yuan to 14.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.06 yuan to 13.66 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.18 yuan to 15.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, limited supply and upstream reluctance to sell may support prices, but as the supply recovers and market stocking weakens, pig prices may remain weak in the first half of the month [11]. - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [11]. - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is no recommendation for single - side trading currently; instead, focus on the support level of the November contract. For arbitrage, consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread in August, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and a core driving logic related to policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Pig prices rebounded after a decline last week. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand, prices initially fell but rebounded towards the end of the month. The slaughter volume remained high, the average trading weight continued to decline, and the weight of individual farmers increased. The fat - standard price difference remained high. Although the spot price is weak, there is an expectation of a price increase in August [22][25]. - **Basis and Spread Movement**: The spot price is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [42][49]. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: The theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure [42]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs is gradually increasing as the weight increases [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased, indicating that the market is actively increasing supply [49]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [51]. - **Secondary Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [53]. 3.4. Demand Side The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit Costs have slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom and are generally lower year - on - year. Due to the lagged effect of low costs, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side Frozen pork inventory is moderately low but is slowly increasing [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakening, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - PTA: Weak, with basis reverse arbitrage and monthly spread positive arbitrage opportunities, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - MEG: Trend turns weak, with monthly spread reverse arbitrage, rated as "Weak" [1][8] Core Viewpoints - PX's price decline is a correction after the sharp rise on July 25, and future Asian supply will gradually increase; PTA's spot supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to basis and monthly spread arbitrage; MEG is short - term bearish due to supply pressure and other factors [3][9][10] Market Overview PX - End - of - day naphtha price declined, and today's PX price dropped significantly. Two September Asian spot deals were at 855 and 854, and one October deal was at 848. The decline is seen as a correction after the July 25 surge, driven by China's discussion on curbing industrial over - capacity. Crude oil's afternoon weakness added downward pressure, but its potential rebound may support PX [3][5] PTA - PTA spot price fell to 4800 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 7 [5] MEG - East China main port MEG inventory is about 52.1 tons, down 1.2 tons from the previous period. Different ports have different inventory changes [6] Polyester - A 300,000 - ton polyester new device in Anhui will be put into production tomorrow. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales are light, with an average sales rate of less than 30% as of 3:30 pm. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales are average, with an average sales rate of 48% as of 3:00 pm [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG trend intensities are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8] Views and Suggestions PX - Unilateral trend turns weak, hedge on rallies. Go long PX and short PTA01 contract, short PXN on rallies. China's PX开工率 is 79.9% (1.2%), and Asia's is 72.9% (- 0.7%). Future Asian supply will gradually increase [9] PTA - Unilateral turns weak, industries can hedge on rallies. Pay attention to going long PX and short PTA on 01 contract. Basis is in reverse arbitrage, and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. PTA装置开工率 remains at 79.7%. Pay attention to high - valuation PTA processing fee compression positions [9][10] MEG - Short - term bearish. Pay attention to supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L arbitrage. Import volume will change in different months, and domestic supply is relatively loose [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The demand for logs is stable with a slight increase this week, but due to low prices from the foreign market in May, traders are more willing to take delivery, leading to expected port arrival pressure in June. The spot market is weak and stable, and the fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The current futures price has rebounded, and as the 07 contract enters the delivery month, there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, attention can be paid to the spread between months and participate in reverse spreads [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly on June 8, with increases of 0.46%, 0.25%, and 0.19% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts also changed, with increases of 1.5, 0.5, and 2.0 respectively. The basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign market quotes also remained stable [1]. - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost also increased slightly, with an increase of 0.73 yuan [1]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port direct - shipping volume in May increased by 39.0 (24.17%) compared to April, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships in the port increased by 8.0 (13.79%) compared to the previous period, reaching 66.0 [1]. Inventory - Weekly inventory in major ports: China's inventory decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.00 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: China's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. Shandong's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.07 to 3.38 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's decreased by 0.01 to 2.28 million cubic meters [3].