Core Viewpoint - The future of the automotive industry will undergo disruptive development in two phases: the first phase focuses on electric vehicles (EVs), while the second phase will introduce new forms of vehicles that are not yet ready for market [1][2][4]. Phase One: Electric Vehicles - The current state of the EV market is relatively mature, with average prices dropping from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 161,000 yuan by 2025, driven by intense price competition among manufacturers [2]. - The overall profit margin of the automotive industry has decreased from 7.8% in 2017 to 4.3% in 2024, primarily due to insufficient product differentiation and excessive production capacity among EV manufacturers [2][3]. - The transition from traditional fuel vehicles to EVs is progressing well, with EV market penetration reaching 44.3% by mid-2025, aided by government subsidies and policies [15][21]. - Despite the growth, challenges remain, including long charging times, safety concerns regarding battery technology, and the dominance of existing fuel vehicles, which are projected to remain in the market for a considerable time [21][22]. Phase Two: New Form Vehicles - The second phase will see the emergence of new form vehicles that extend beyond traditional transportation, integrating advanced technologies such as autonomous driving and smart applications [23][24]. - New form vehicles will act as intelligent terminals capable of energy storage and communication, potentially transforming into mobile living spaces that can serve various functions [23][25]. - The realization of fully autonomous driving is crucial for this phase, as it will fundamentally change how vehicles are used and their internal layouts [29][30]. - The development of a robust ecosystem around new form vehicles will depend on advancements in software and hardware integration, as well as the establishment of a centralized computing architecture [30][31]. Industry Implications - The automotive industry is at a saturation point, with a significant portion of sales coming from vehicle replacements and upgrades, necessitating a balance between short-term survival and long-term innovation [21][28]. - The shift towards new form vehicles will require substantial investment in research and development, particularly in battery technology and computing capabilities [29][30]. - The emergence of new business models, such as shared mobility, will likely reshape urban landscapes and reduce the need for extensive parking infrastructure [27][28].

王高、张锐／文 2025年6月，中国汽车工业协会和《人民日报》相继发文，反对新能源车企"内卷式竞争"。新能源车企不断"卷"价格，在冲击燃油车价格下降的同时（仅 2024年，燃油车新车平均降价1.3万元），也使得新能源车的价格持续走低，均价从2023年的18.4万元降至2025年的16.1万元。 "价格战"带来的直接结果是行业利润下降。2017年，中国汽车行业的整体利润率是7.8%，到2024年只有4.3%。新能源车企不断"卷"价格，归根结底是因为产 品差异化不够，产能过大。造成这一状况有车企自身的原因，也是汽车行业发展阶段所导致的。 汽车未来的颠覆式发展可分为两个阶段：新能源汽车和新形态汽车。目前，新能源车已经相对成熟，而第二阶段需要的基础条件还不具备，新形态汽车远未 到来。 新形态汽车的各种核心功能还在布局和进化中，新能源汽车更多是在非核心功能方面寻求差异化，如冰箱、彩电、大沙发的配置，跑车般的外观，功能丰富 的座舱娱乐系统等。而且，汽车单价高、使用年限长、燃油车存量市场庞大，新能源车完全取代燃油车需要较长时间。加上汽车市场处于饱和期，更多销售 来自置换和升级，为促进销售，降价似乎是新能源车企最容易做出的选 ...