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超配中国股市!高盛:本轮上涨驱动结构更健康,估值未过高
天天基金网· 2025-09-21 02:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive outlook for Asian markets, particularly China, driven by expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a favorable liquidity environment, which supports stock market performance [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief strategists emphasize that the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and the depreciation of the US dollar are beneficial for stock markets, especially in Asia [4][5]. - The firm has overweight positions in Chinese, Korean, and Japanese markets, focusing on technology and cyclical sectors [4][5]. - The current market sentiment in China is improving but has not reached the speculative levels seen in 2015 and 2021, indicating further potential for growth [4][6][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs expects global funds to flow into Asian markets, particularly China, due to the anticipated rate cuts and a favorable economic environment [5][6]. - The firm maintains a balanced asset allocation strategy globally, favoring stocks over cash in the long term while recommending a short-term overweight in cash to manage potential market pullbacks [5][6]. - The firm highlights the importance of diversification across asset classes and regions in investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Chinese Market Analysis - The health of the current rally in the Chinese stock market is deemed better than historical levels, with a more balanced participation from institutional investors [7][8]. - Current valuations in the Chinese market are not overheated, with the MSCI China index median P/E ratio around 17 times, slightly above historical averages [7][8]. - Concerns about retail speculation are mitigated by the observation that the current margin balance, while higher than in 2015, is proportionally lower relative to the total market capitalization [7][8]. Group 4: International Investor Interest - There is a notable increase in interest from overseas long-term investors in non-US markets, particularly China, driven by high valuations in the US market [9][10]. - The emergence of innovative companies and supportive policies in China has significantly improved the fundamental outlook for Chinese tech firms, attracting more foreign investment [10]. - The focus of international investors is shifting from blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong to opportunities in A-shares, especially in sectors like robotics and AI [10].