证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 转债估值上行。截至 9 月 26 日，全市场可转债平均转股溢价率为 40.78%， 分位数位于 2023 年 1 月以来的 2.70%。余额加权的平均转股溢价率为 42.24%，分位数位于 2023 年 1 月以来的 7.00%，现存转债的算术平均转 股溢价率和加权平均转股溢价率差值不大，均位于 2023 年以来的底部位 置。与 8 月底数据相比，本月转债的加权转股溢价率环比上升 6.51pcts。 公募基金增持转债。据上交所披露的主要券种投资者持有结构数据，2024 年下半年以来可转债市场规模逐步缩小，2025 年 8 月上交所可转债市场 总计 3918.32 亿元，环比减少 74.74 亿元。8 月前五大可转债持有者分别 是：公募基金 1512.42（占可转换公司债券持有面值总额的 39%，后同）、 企业年金 676.97（17%）、保险机构 320.73（8%）、一般机构 251.07（6%）、 证券公司自营 268.18（7%）亿元，其中公募基金增持 92.63 亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued to rise in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 6.54%, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 12.04%. Analysts are looking for investment opportunities in October, with over ten brokerages releasing their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - Multiple brokerages have recommended stocks including Aolide, China Merchants Shekou, Hikvision, China Merchants Bank, Cambrian Biologics, and Shanghai Lingang [2]. - Notable stocks receiving multiple recommendations include Hikvision, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huayou Cobalt, and Luoyang Molybdenum, each recommended by three brokerages [3]. - Huayou Cobalt saw the highest increase in September, with a rise of over 37%, closing at 65.9 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Focus Areas - Brokerages suggest that the A-share market is expected to enter a "red October," with a focus on technology and "anti-involution" sectors. The third-quarter report window is highlighted as a key focus for October [5]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a trend of gradual upward movement, with the third-quarter reports being crucial for policy expectations and performance [5]. - Key investment themes include AI computing power, semiconductor autonomy, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are considered priority sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued to rise in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 6.54%, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 12.04%. Analysts are looking for investment opportunities in October, with over ten brokerages releasing their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - Multiple brokerages have recommended stocks across different sectors, including technology and materials, with notable mentions such as Hikvision, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huayou Cobalt, and Luoyang Molybdenum, each receiving recommendations from three brokerages [2][3][4]. - Huayou Cobalt saw the highest increase in September, with a rise of over 37%, closing at 65.9 yuan [3]. Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages suggest that the A-share market may experience a "red October," focusing on technology and "anti-involution" themes. The upcoming Q3 reports are highlighted as a key focus for October [5]. - Key investment themes include AI computing power, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, as emphasized by various brokerages [5]. - East China Securities identifies four main lines of focus for October: acceleration in global AI capital expenditure, themes related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, sectors with potential earnings surprises during the Q3 reporting period, and midstream raw material manufacturing industries benefiting from anti-involution policies [5].

当地时间10月1日，美国联邦政府因两党分歧再度"停摆"。这个消息一出，我的朋友圈立刻炸开了锅。有人担心全球经济动荡，有人却在医药股上赚得盆满 钵满。作为一个在上海金融圈摸爬滚打十年的量化投资者，我更关心的是：这些表面现象背后，到底隐藏着怎样的资金行为逻辑？ | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46397.89c | 81.82 | 0.18% | 9.06% | 09/30 | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 22660.01c | 68.86 | 0.30% | 17.34% | 09/30 | | SPX | 标普500 | 6688.46c | 27.25 | 0.41% | 13.72% | 09/30 | 医药板块的异军突起特别引人注目。辉瑞涨6.83%，默克涨6.81%，礼来涨5.02%——这些数字看似简单，实则暗藏玄机。我注意到一个有趣的现象：在市场 普遍担忧政府停摆影响时，医药股却逆势走强。这让我想起十年前刚开始接触量化投资 ...

2025年三季度市值500强企业平均市值、中位数市值和最低市值分别为1878亿元、861亿元和450亿元，较2025 年上半年分别增长277亿元、169亿元和95亿元。 2025年三季度共有55家新面孔跻身市值500强，其中，紫金黄金国际、华电新能、奇瑞汽车、屹唐股份、联合 动力为新上市公司，上纬新材、药捷安康-B、东芯股份、海博思创等公司市值排名增幅居前。 1. 500强上市地分布 从2025年三季度入围市值500强公司上市地来看，上海（247家，+4家），深圳（151家，+1家），香港（188 家，-2家）、纽约（35家，-1家）、伦敦（3家，-1家）、 新加坡（1家）。2025年三季度以来，在科技板块的 带动下，A股和港股均大幅上涨，上海、深圳、香港、纽约总市值均录得双位数增长。 Wind最新发布2025年三季度"中国上市企业市值500强"榜单，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、工商银行位列市值榜前三 名。市值超1万亿元的企业有14家，与2025年上半年持平。市值超万亿企业中，阿里巴巴、宁德时代、工业富 联排名分别提升3位、7位和19位。 | 上市地 | 入围公司数(家) | 总市值(亿元) | | --- | -- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **MSCI China Index** and its performance in the context of the Chinese stock market, highlighting its recent structural improvements and growth potential [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Index** has shown a **48% cumulative return** over the past 12 months, with a **38% year-to-date return**, second only to South Korea's **50%** [1][9]. - The **earnings growth** has been a significant driver of market returns, contributing positively for three consecutive years since 2023: **0.6%** in 2023, **5.0%** in 2024, and **3.2%** in 2025 [2][13]. - The **profitability trend** has stabilized, with a notable shift in leading sectors, particularly in **internet, finance, and technology**, which now dominate the index [2][24]. - The **earnings revision breadth (ERB)** turned positive in August 2025, making MSCI China one of the only two major markets globally to exhibit this trend [18][24]. Future Outlook - The outlook for **sustainable earnings growth** is optimistic, particularly in key sectors such as **internet, technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive** [3][40]. - The **banking sector** remains an exception with negative revisions, but its impact on overall earnings growth is expected to be limited [3][40]. - The **e-commerce sector** is anticipated to see a reduction in profit downgrades as price competition peaks in Q3 2025 [3][40]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the **structural improvements** in the Chinese market, including a recovery in **return on equity (ROE)** and a shift towards high-quality large-cap stocks [14][24]. - The **MSCI China forward P/E ratio** increased from **8.7x** in August 2024 to **12.3x** in September 2025, reflecting a **42%** rise, indicating a revaluation based on improved fundamentals [14]. - The **internet, finance, and technology sectors** collectively account for **76.9%** of the MSCI China Index, up from **70.4%** in 2022, highlighting a significant shift in market composition [24][26]. - The **expected contributions** to total earnings per share (EPS) from key sectors for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be around **80%**, with the internet sector expected to regain its leading position in EPS growth by 2026 [26][31]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future potential of the Chinese stock market, particularly through the lens of the MSCI China Index.

Group 1 - The company plans to change its Chinese name to Shanghai VitalMicrotech Co., Ltd. and its English name accordingly, along with adjustments to its business scope, pending shareholder approval [1] - The company has been continuously expanding into the semiconductor equipment, materials, and components sectors, transitioning from real estate development to emerging business areas by leveraging self-research and mergers and acquisitions [2] - By June 30, 2025, the company's revenue structure is expected to shift significantly, with the semiconductor-related businesses projected to dominate over the real estate sector [2] Group 2 - The name change aims to better reflect the company's current business structure and future strategic direction, enhancing corporate image and brand value [3] - The actual controlling shareholder will change to XianDao Technology Group Co., Ltd. on November 28, 2024, aligning with the company's strategic focus on integrated circuit equipment and materials [2] - The company intends to leverage the financial, technological, and industrial resources of its new controlling shareholder to establish a comprehensive platform for semiconductor equipment, materials, and components [2]

北交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达53.44%上榜，机构专用席位净卖出331.19万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交1.87亿元，其中，买入成交额为7654.65 万元，卖出成交额为1.11亿元，合计净卖出3431.91万元。 具体来看，今日上榜的营业部中，共有2家机构专用席位现身，即买三、卖三，合计买入金额1620.24万 元，卖出金额1951.43万元，合计净卖出331.19万元。（数据宝） 锦华新材9月29日交易公开信息 | 买/卖 | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万元） | 卖出金额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 买一 | 国信证券股份有限公司广州东风中路证券营业部 | 1368.69 | 58.77 | | 买二 | 广发证券股份有限公司深圳东滨路营业部 | 1270.79 | 1729.61 | | 买三 | 机构专用 | 1208.75 | 160.72 | | 买四 | 中信建投证券股份有限公司厦门杏东路证券营业部 | 1055.71 | 511.06 | | 买五 | 国信证券股份有限公司深圳红岭中路证券营业部 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wanrun Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase in its stock price, with a rise of 5.11% to 13.79 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 12.728 billion CNY [1] - Wanrun Co., Ltd. is engaged in three main business areas: electronic information materials, environmental protection materials, and health industry products, with functional materials accounting for 78.58% of revenue, life sciences and pharmaceuticals for 20.09%, and other categories for 1.33% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Galaxy Fund has a significant position in Wanrun Co., Ltd., specifically the Galaxy New Materials Stock Initiation A (020276), which reduced its holdings by 5,800 shares in the second quarter, maintaining 53,700 shares, representing 5.26% of the fund's net value [2] - The Galaxy New Materials Stock Initiation A (020276) has achieved a year-to-date return of 32.29%, ranking 1479 out of 4220 in its category, and a one-year return of 62.93%, ranking 1436 out of 3814 [2] - The fund manager of Galaxy New Materials Stock Initiation A is Jin Ye, who has been in the position for approximately 3 years and 265 days, with the fund's total asset size at 54.3398 million CNY [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge of the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points indicates a vibrant capital market, with the total market value of 11 listed companies in the city exceeding 500 billion yuan, marking a historical high [2] - The listed companies in the city exhibit a "leading role and multiple blooming" pattern, with the global optical module leader, Zhongji Xuchuang, achieving a market value of over 400 billion yuan, ranking first among listed companies in Shandong Province [2] - Union Chemical, a leader in organic pigments, has seen a remarkable annual increase of 437.83%, earning the title of "King of A-share Growth" for the first half of the year [2] Group 2 - The city is recognized as a "pioneer" in the county-level economy of Shandong Province, with a solid industrial foundation supporting corporate development [3] - The total number of listed companies in the city has reached 12, the highest among county-level regions in Shandong Province [3] - The city's GDP has surpassed 160 billion yuan, with general public budget revenue exceeding 12 billion yuan, providing a robust foundation for listed companies to pursue higher market values and cultivate new productive forces [3]