Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HK$51.55 [3][12][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 111.2 billion and RMB 10.6 billion, respectively, surpassing forecasts by 3% and 5% [10]. - The smartphone segment showed a 3% year-on-year sales growth, with high-end models accounting for 25% of shipments in China [10]. - The IoT segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 59% year-on-year, driven by a doubling of revenue from IoT home appliances and a 65% increase in sales volume [10]. - The electric vehicle (EV) and AI business generated RMB 18.6 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, higher than the forecasted 20.8% [10]. - Overall gross margin reached 22.8%, the highest since 2017, attributed to improved operational efficiency and increased investment income [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 481.3 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 41.9 billion, an 82% increase [16][20]. - The report anticipates a cautious outlook for smartphone shipment growth, projecting a 3% increase in 2025, with price increases being a key growth driver [11]. - Adjusted EPS for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 1.64, up from RMB 1.57, representing a 5% increase [4][16]. Valuation - The target P/E ratio for 2026 has been adjusted down to 28.5 times adjusted net profit, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [17]. - The valuation remains at an 8% premium compared to Apple's current P/E ratio, based on stronger growth prospects for Xiaomi [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 40% from the current price of HK$50.10 [2][7][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that operational leverage will be a key highlight for Xiaomi in the upcoming quarters, particularly driven by strong growth in the IoT segment and strategic adjustments in the smartphone market [3][4]. - The anticipated strong performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to national subsidies supporting large appliances and consumer electronics, with IoT revenue expected to grow by 51% year-on-year to RMB 30.7 billion [3]. - The report notes a significant decline in smartphone shipments in the Indian market, down 38% year-on-year, reflecting Xiaomi's strategic withdrawal from this market due to slowing structural growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Xiaomi's IoT business is projected to generate RMB 30.7 billion, while smartphone revenue is expected to reach RMB 50.2 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3][13]. - The report forecasts adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 to be around RMB 10.2 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% for the electric vehicle segment [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the investor day in June and the launch of the YU7 electric vehicle in July will serve as important catalysts for Xiaomi's stock performance [4]. - It is expected that Xiaomi will continue to focus on increasing smartphone prices to navigate potential downturns in global markets, particularly in India and Latin America [4][15]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 1%-3% due to rising electric vehicle shipments, with adjusted net profit for 2025 now estimated at RMB 40.1 billion, up from a previous estimate of RMB 34.9 billion [5][14]. - The report also revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.57, reflecting a 15% increase from earlier projections [8][14]. Valuation - The target valuation multiple has been adjusted from 35.0x to 32.0x based on the 2026 adjusted net profit, reflecting the macroeconomic uncertainties impacting global trade [15][16]. - The report emphasizes that Xiaomi's high-end strategy and the growth of its electric vehicle business are expected to drive future profitability [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with an updated target price of HK$52.00, reflecting a P/E ratio of 38.5 times the adjusted EPS for 2025 [2][6][21]. Core Insights - The report anticipates strong performance in Q4 2024, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 100 billion for the first time, reaching RMB 105 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43% [4][14]. - Key growth drivers for 2025 include national consumption subsidy policies, expansion in electric vehicle (EV) production capacity, and the monetization of CEO Lei Jun's personal brand [5][19]. - The report emphasizes that Xiaomi's strong financial performance from 2024 to 2025 marks the beginning of a structural growth phase rather than a cyclical recovery peak [5][21]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 361.95 billion - 2025E: RMB 444.69 billion - 2026E: RMB 487.60 billion - Adjusted net profit estimates are: - 2024E: RMB 25.96 billion - 2025E: RMB 31.62 billion - 2026E: RMB 38.52 billion [7][18][24]. Segment Performance - Smartphone revenue is projected to reach RMB 206.99 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [16]. - IoT and lifestyle products are expected to generate RMB 121.74 billion in 2025, reflecting a 18% increase [16]. - The electric vehicle segment is forecasted to grow significantly, with revenues projected at RMB 76.19 billion in 2025, marking a 136% increase [16]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report revises revenue forecasts upward by 2%-5% for 2024-2026, driven by higher expectations for IoT and EV segments [5][18]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been increased by 4%-21% for the same period, with a projected CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2026 [5][18]. Valuation - The updated target price reflects a 53% increase from the previous target of HK$34.00, based on a higher adjusted net profit estimate of RMB 316.24 billion for 2025 [6][19]. - Xiaomi's current trading price shows a slight discount compared to Apple, despite faster revenue and profit growth [6][19].