Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HK$51.55 [3][12][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 111.2 billion and RMB 10.6 billion, respectively, surpassing forecasts by 3% and 5% [10]. - The smartphone segment showed a 3% year-on-year sales growth, with high-end models accounting for 25% of shipments in China [10]. - The IoT segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 59% year-on-year, driven by a doubling of revenue from IoT home appliances and a 65% increase in sales volume [10]. - The electric vehicle (EV) and AI business generated RMB 18.6 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, higher than the forecasted 20.8% [10]. - Overall gross margin reached 22.8%, the highest since 2017, attributed to improved operational efficiency and increased investment income [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 481.3 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 41.9 billion, an 82% increase [16][20]. - The report anticipates a cautious outlook for smartphone shipment growth, projecting a 3% increase in 2025, with price increases being a key growth driver [11]. - Adjusted EPS for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 1.64, up from RMB 1.57, representing a 5% increase [4][16]. Valuation - The target P/E ratio for 2026 has been adjusted down to 28.5 times adjusted net profit, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [17]. - The valuation remains at an 8% premium compared to Apple's current P/E ratio, based on stronger growth prospects for Xiaomi [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 40% from the current price of HK$50.10 [2][7][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that operational leverage will be a key highlight for Xiaomi in the upcoming quarters, particularly driven by strong growth in the IoT segment and strategic adjustments in the smartphone market [3][4]. - The anticipated strong performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to national subsidies supporting large appliances and consumer electronics, with IoT revenue expected to grow by 51% year-on-year to RMB 30.7 billion [3]. - The report notes a significant decline in smartphone shipments in the Indian market, down 38% year-on-year, reflecting Xiaomi's strategic withdrawal from this market due to slowing structural growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Xiaomi's IoT business is projected to generate RMB 30.7 billion, while smartphone revenue is expected to reach RMB 50.2 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3][13]. - The report forecasts adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 to be around RMB 10.2 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% for the electric vehicle segment [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the investor day in June and the launch of the YU7 electric vehicle in July will serve as important catalysts for Xiaomi's stock performance [4]. - It is expected that Xiaomi will continue to focus on increasing smartphone prices to navigate potential downturns in global markets, particularly in India and Latin America [4][15]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 1%-3% due to rising electric vehicle shipments, with adjusted net profit for 2025 now estimated at RMB 40.1 billion, up from a previous estimate of RMB 34.9 billion [5][14]. - The report also revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.57, reflecting a 15% increase from earlier projections [8][14]. Valuation - The target valuation multiple has been adjusted from 35.0x to 32.0x based on the 2026 adjusted net profit, reflecting the macroeconomic uncertainties impacting global trade [15][16]. - The report emphasizes that Xiaomi's high-end strategy and the growth of its electric vehicle business are expected to drive future profitability [15][16].

此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 17 日 中午 12 时 35 分由华兴证券(香港)发 布。中文版由华兴证券的王国晗（证券分析师登记编号: S1680524080001）审核。如果 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 预计本季度 IoT 和整体盈利强劲：我们预测小米 4Q24 收入首次超过 1,000 亿人民币大关 ，达到 1,050 亿元，同比提升 40%。分板块来看，我们根据 Canalys 数据（4,270 万部出 货）预测智能手机收入为 490 亿元人民币，且因高端机型贡献提升，单价同比增长 6%至 人民币 1,153 元。IoT 方面，我们预测总收入同比增长 46%至 297 亿元人民币，受益于国 内刺激政策，尤其是家电产品。我们预测互联网服务在强劲广告业务势能下收入同比提升 13%至 89 亿元人民币，并预测季度电车交付量为 7 万台、收入为 163 亿元人民币。我们 预测 4Q24 整体综合毛利率环比提升 20 个基点至 20.6%，并预计随着小米持续扩大规模， 电车毛利率将接近 20%。利润层面，我们预测小米的经调整净利润为 70 亿元人民币，涵 盖 ...