证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 6 月出口维持高增，下行拐点将近 ──2025 年 6 月进出口数据传递的信号 核心观点 6 月出口表现强势，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动。中美瑞士谈判后互相 调降关税，6 月中国对美出口同比降 15%，较 5 月-33.6%边际改善。从美国数据看， 上半年需求透支已较为明显。伴随关税渐进生效抬升，预计外需逐步走弱，出口下行 拐点将近。关注关税冲突下，企业建立海外仓跨境囤货对出口节奏的扰动。 ❑ 6 月出口表现维持强势，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动 2025 年 6 月人民币计价出口 2.34 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%，前值 6.3%。1-6 月人 民币计价累计出口 13 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%，较前值 7.2%不变。1-6 月，我国对 共建"一带一路"国家合计出口 6.56 万亿元，增长 10.8%。 6 月出口数据表现延续强势，我们认为"转口抢出口"是重要拉动，一是从总需求 角度来看 6 月全球制造业 PMI 上行，由前值 49.5 升至 50.3；二是 6 月对非美经济 体如东盟、欧盟、非洲等经济体出口分别达到 4186 亿元、3538 ...

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.28 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, down from 9.3% in the previous month[2] - Cumulative exports from January to May 2025 totaled 10.67 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, slightly down from 7.5%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 5.34 trillion RMB, growing by 10.4% year-on-year[2] Trade with the U.S. - China's exports to the U.S. in May 2025 fell by 33.6% year-on-year, worsening from a 20.2% decline in April[3] - The average tariff level in May remained high, impacting export performance, with tariffs at 145% before May 14 and reduced to 30% thereafter[4] - The U.S. imported significantly more from Vietnam and Indonesia, with increases of 47.8% and 28.9% respectively, indicating a shift in sourcing[2] Trade Surplus and Economic Impact - The trade surplus in May 2025 was 103.22 billion USD, up from 96.18 billion USD in the previous month, indicating a strong position[6] - In Q1 2025, the trade surplus reached 273 billion USD, contributing 40% to GDP growth[6] - Future trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP, contingent on domestic demand policies[5] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and a significant decline in external demand impacting exports[7]