Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.28 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, down from 9.3% in the previous month[2] - Cumulative exports from January to May 2025 totaled 10.67 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, slightly down from 7.5%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 5.34 trillion RMB, growing by 10.4% year-on-year[2] Trade with the U.S. - China's exports to the U.S. in May 2025 fell by 33.6% year-on-year, worsening from a 20.2% decline in April[3] - The average tariff level in May remained high, impacting export performance, with tariffs at 145% before May 14 and reduced to 30% thereafter[4] - The U.S. imported significantly more from Vietnam and Indonesia, with increases of 47.8% and 28.9% respectively, indicating a shift in sourcing[2] Trade Surplus and Economic Impact - The trade surplus in May 2025 was 103.22 billion USD, up from 96.18 billion USD in the previous month, indicating a strong position[6] - In Q1 2025, the trade surplus reached 273 billion USD, contributing 40% to GDP growth[6] - Future trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP, contingent on domestic demand policies[5] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and a significant decline in external demand impacting exports[7]