证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 17 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 17 日 2、行业 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 16 日上证指数下跌 0.03%，沪深 300 下跌 0.3%，科创 50 上涨 0.14%，中证 1000 上涨 0.3%，创业板 指下跌 0.22%，恒生指数下跌 0.29%。 行业：7 月 16 日表现最好的行业分别是社会服务（+1.13%)、汽车（+1.07%)、医药生物（+0.95%)、轻工制造 （+0.94%)、农林牧渔（+0.85%)，表现最差的行业分别是钢铁（-1.28%)、银行（-0.74%)、有色金属（-0.45%)、 非银金融（-0.43%)、建筑装饰（-0.42%)。 资金：7 月 16 日全 A 总成交额为 14617.34 亿元，南下资金净流入 16.03 亿港元。 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/陈冀/祁星】宏观 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 6 月出口维持高增，下行拐点将近 ──2025 年 6 月进出口数据传递的信号 核心观点 6 月出口表现强势，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动。中美瑞士谈判后互相 调降关税，6 月中国对美出口同比降 15%，较 5 月-33.6%边际改善。从美国数据看， 上半年需求透支已较为明显。伴随关税渐进生效抬升，预计外需逐步走弱，出口下行 拐点将近。关注关税冲突下，企业建立海外仓跨境囤货对出口节奏的扰动。 ❑ 6 月出口表现维持强势，关税豁免期内"转口抢出口"是重要拉动 2025 年 6 月人民币计价出口 2.34 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%，前值 6.3%。1-6 月人 民币计价累计出口 13 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%，较前值 7.2%不变。1-6 月，我国对 共建"一带一路"国家合计出口 6.56 万亿元，增长 10.8%。 6 月出口数据表现延续强势，我们认为"转口抢出口"是重要拉动，一是从总需求 角度来看 6 月全球制造业 PMI 上行，由前值 49.5 升至 50.3；二是 6 月对非美经济 体如东盟、欧盟、非洲等经济体出口分别达到 4186 亿元、3538 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]