分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 1. 《出口增速为何再上升？——6 月外贸数 据解读》 2025-07-14 2. 《进出口为何再回升？——7 月外贸数据 解读》 2025-08-07 3. 《转口贸易重启——8 月外贸数据解读》 2025-09-08 4. 《贸易摩擦再起，如何影响出口？——9 月外贸数据解读》 2025-10-13 证券研究报告 宏观月报 / 2025.11.07 核心观点 ❖ 10 月我国出口同比增速录得-1.1%，较上月增速下降 9.4 个百分点，环比增 速也低于近 5 年中位数，指向出口动能放缓。主因去年同期基数大幅走高。 此外，世界经济仍在放缓，叠加美对全球加征关税，贸易总蛋糕也有收缩。从 国别上来看，对周边地区以及美国出口仍具韧性，对欧盟、拉美和非洲大幅回 落。品类上，汽车受益低基数回升，集成电路韧性较强。进口增速同步回落， 环比增速接近近 5 年同期均值，或因生产/内需同步放缓，自资源国和一带一 路沿线进口表 ...

报 告 正 文 10月我国出口同比增速录得-1.1%，较上月增速下降9.4个百分点，环比增速也低于近5年中位数，指向 出口动能放缓 。主因 去年同期基数大幅走高 。此外， 世界经 济仍在放缓，叠加美对全球加征关税，贸易总蛋糕也有收缩 。从 国别 上来看，对 周边地区 以及 美国 出口仍具韧性，对欧盟、拉美和非洲大幅回落。 品类上 ，汽 车受益低基数回升，集成电路韧性较强。 进口增速同步回落 ，环比增速接近近5年同期均值，或因 生产/内需 同步放缓，自资源国和一带一路沿线进口表现仍好， 品类上仅 农产品 转升。 四季度中枢回落，全年平稳收官。 往后看， 11月基数回落支撑下月出口改善。中美贸易摩擦或告一段落，对中关税调降边际利好我国出口，转口贸易继续逆转，对 美直接贸易回升。 四季度出口中枢稳中有降。一方面， 季度出口基数抬升，美国经济走弱，抢进口不再。 另一方面， 受益于欧洲复苏，中美贸易摩擦缓和，叠加 美联储降息落地，共同支撑出口。 高基数拖累出口大幅回落 。 根据海关总署统计，按美元计价，2025年10月我国出口同比增速录得-1.1%，较上月增速下降9.4个百分点，环比增速也低于近5年中位 数，指向出口动 ...

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1%, and total market turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The macroeconomic data for the first quarter showed strong export performance, supported by the "export grabbing" effect, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed marginal improvement [1] - Concerns remain regarding potential volatility in export data due to high tariffs imposed by the US on China, although a 90-day tariff suspension from other countries provides a buffer [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.1% and for five years or more at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to lead, with monetary policy having room to follow, indicating that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before interest rate cuts [2][3] Market Performance - As of April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3291.43 points, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, computers, and beauty care, while banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors saw declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 10,738.10 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance decreased to 18,038.40 billion yuan [5]